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Issues to Watch: 2007 Jonathan Lash World Resources Institute December 19, 2006. 5 ISSUES TO WATCH. Prospects for Climate Legislation Climate and Energy in the Agriculture Bill Chesapeake Water Quality Initiative New Science and Technology International Process. Congressional Action?.

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Issues to Watch: 2007Jonathan LashWorld Resources InstituteDecember 19, 2006


5 issues to watch
5 ISSUES TO WATCH

  • Prospects for Climate Legislation

  • Climate and Energy in the Agriculture Bill

  • Chesapeake Water Quality Initiative

  • New Science and Technology

  • International Process



REPORT: November 17, 2006 A New Energy Future

Lessons from the 2006 Election:

“Campaign ads highlighted energy issues in a prominent and unprecedented way this election cycle and had a huge impact on the campaigns.”


More than 75 percent [of voters in the 2006 elections] said they agreed with the following statement:

“Congress should pass legislation promoting renewables and alternative energy sources as an effective way to reduce global warming pollution.”

Majorities in all demographics said lawmakers should support to the two solutions, including 53 percent of self-described conservatives and nearly 37 percent of self-described “very conservative” voters.


Hurricane Katrina

August 28, 2005

Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team


Growing Public

Concern in US


California
CALIFORNIA

  • Global Warming Solutions Act (signed September 27, 2006):

    • Caps California’s greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2020.

    • Requires State Air Resources Board to establish, monitor, and enforce compliance for statewide greenhouse gas emissions reporting program.

    • Authorizes state board to adopt market-based compliance mechanisms including cap-and-trade.


Regulating U.S. Emissions in Northeast

Goal: A regional cap-and-trade program initially covering CO2 emissions from power plants

Stabilize emissions at base levels through 2014

Reduce by 10% by 2018

Region statistics:

7 states represent 7% US total GHG emissions

 1.5% of world GHG emissions (Australia, rank 15th)

Other states:

MD (signed; expected to implement under new governor)

MA (expected to rejoin under new governor)


50 of electricity sales subject to renewable portfolio standards rps renewable energy re goals
50% of electricity sales subject to Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals

20 states + D.C. with RPS 3 states w/ goals

RPS in effect

Goals in place

Source: database of state incentives for renewable energy (2006)


36 of u s auto market set for ghg rules
36% of U.S auto market set for GHG rules Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals

12 states adopting California GHG rules;

number of new car registrations (thousands of vehicles), 2005

Source: National Automobile Dealer Association 2006;


Tomorrow’s Markets Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals

Reforestation

Biofuels

Carbon Capture & Storage

Energy Efficiency

GHG Reducing

Products and Services

Wind power

Mass transit

Coal-based

Synfuels with CCS

Adapted from:

Robert Socolow, www.princeton.edu/~cmi


David Slump Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goalsGeneral Manager, global marketing,

GE Energy,General Electric Co.

Andy RubenVice President of Corporate Strategy/Sustainability,Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.

Ruth ShawGroup Executive,

Public Policy and President,

Duke Nuclear,Duke Energy Corp.

Jeff SterbaChairman, President and CEO,PNM Resources

Michael Murray,Director, Legislative Policy,Sempra Energy

Elizabeth A. MolerExecutive V.P., Government and Environmental Affairs &Public Policy,Exelon Corp.

Garth EdwardTrading Manager, Environmental Products,Shell Group


Senate Committee: Environment and Public Works Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals

109th Congress

  • Republicans:

  • James Inhofe, Committee Chair (OK)

  • John Warner (VA)

  • Christopher Bond (MO)

  • George Voinovich (OH)

  • Lincoln Chafee (RI)

  • Lisa Murkowski (AK)

  • John Thune (SD)

  • Jim DeMint (SC)

  • Johnny Isakson (GA)

  • David Vitter (LA)

  • Democrats:

  • James Jeffords, Minority leader (VT)

  • Max Baucus (MT)

  • Joseph Lieberman (CT)

  • Barbara Boxer (CA)

  • Thomas Carper (DE)

  • Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)

  • Frank Lautenberg (NJ)

  • Barack Obama (IL)

Incumbent replacements for 110th Congress:

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Bernard Sanders (I-VT)

- New Committee Chair

- Will not be serving in 110th Congress


Cars and coal
CARS and COAL Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals

American Electric Power, Zimmer Coal Plant,Moscow, Ohio


Global Markets Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals

Can We Reduce

GHGs and Still

Compete Globally?


In the last 10 years the United States has consumed approximately 72.4 billion barrels of oil. More than 50% of that was imported.

* Based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Report: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 12 , 2006 Release


Number of gas stations that carry e85
Number of Gas Stations approximately that carry E85

Source: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy


If the entire acreage under corn production in the United States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for one eighth of current gasoline demand.

*Data from World Resources Institute


Dead Zones States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment


Chesapeake bay watershed
Chesapeake Bay Watershed States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for


No dispute among scientific bodies
No dispute among scientific bodies… States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for


Financial times december 2006
Financial Times – December 2006 States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for

A Different

Kind of

Hot Times

On the

Slopes

AP Photo


Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005 States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for


Risk, for species diversity, wetlands, and coastal zones significantly increases when temperatures rise above 2º C

Hare, 2005; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research


Cellulosic Ethanol Pilot Plant significantly increases when temperatures rise above 2

Supercapacitorwith Nanotechnology

Thin-film solar cells


Venture capital flows to clean technology companies
Venture capital flows to clean technology companies significantly increases when temperatures rise above 2


Us r d expenditures 1981 2005
US R&D Expenditures significantly increases when temperatures rise above 21981 - 2005

Source: IEA R&D database http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/rd.asp


The key is top 25
The Key is Top 25 significantly increases when temperatures rise above 2

Top 25 in

Population

Top 25 in GDP

Netherlands,

(Taiwan)

Thailand

Canada,

S.Korea,

Australia,

S.Africa,

Spain,

Poland,

Argentina

USA, China, (EU25), Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, Mexico, France, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey

(68% World GHG Emissions)

Bangladesh, Nigeria, Viet Nam, Philippines, Ethiopia,

Egypt,

Congo Ukraine,

Pakistan

Top 25 in

Emissions

(80% World GHG Total)

S. Arabia

Source: WRI/CAIT


European Climate Exchange Futures and Contracts significantly increases when temperatures rise above 2Price and Volume


“China overtakes the United States as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010.”

-World Energy Outlook 2006

International Energy Agency


Per capita emissions 2000
Per Capita Emissions, 2000 biggest emitter before 2010.”


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