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NMTA Economic Forecast. November 9, 2011. Jim Hebert Hebert Research, Inc. 2011 Nobel Prize Winners Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims. Structural Macroeconomic Model (X,Y) = (Y,X) Mathematical Model - Rate of Change Statistical Model - Historical Variables that do not change:

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NMTA

Economic Forecast

November 9, 2011

Jim Hebert

Hebert Research, Inc.


2011 nobel prize winners thomas sargent and christopher sims
2011 Nobel Prize WinnersThomas Sargent and Christopher Sims

  • Structural Macroeconomic Model

    (X,Y) = (Y,X)

  • Mathematical Model - Rate of Change

  • Statistical Model - Historical Variables that do not change:

    X= el+allX-1 + a21X-2 +BllYl + b21Y-2 + cllZ-1 + CZ ~ Z+ -el

    Y= c2 + aEX-1 + a22X-2 + buy1 + b22Y-2 + CEZ-+ ~c22Z-2 + e2

    Z= c3 + a13X-1 + ~ 2 ~X+- 2b i3Y-I + b23x2 + c ~ ~ + Z c2-3Z~-2 + e3


Market demand based on conditional probabilities
Market Demand Based on Conditional Probabilities

  • Where P(Xi │Yj) = Pij / (∑ Pij)

  • X1 = Ability to purchase

    X2 = Willingness

    X2 = Delayed Decision


Demand equation for marine products and service
Demand Equation For Marine Products and Service

  • d = f {Hp + Eu}

    • Where beta home price – 0.297

    • Employment – 0.685

    • R2 = 0.878




More foreclosures can be expected
More Foreclosures Can Be Expected Construction in 30 years


Housing indicators
Housing Indicators Construction in 30 years


Income and employment
Income and Employment Construction in 30 years


Nonfarm payroll employment
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Construction in 30 years


Wa employment is still in the hole
WA Employment is Still in the Hole Construction in 30 years


Wa state businesses full time employees
WA State Businesses Construction in 30 yearsFull Time Employees


Unemployment rate of labor force
Unemployment Rate (% of Labor Force) Construction in 30 years


Education and unemployment
Education and Unemployment Construction in 30 years




Manufacturing employment
Manufacturing Employment Construction in 30 years


Wa state businesses annual gross revenue
WA State Businesses Construction in 30 yearsAnnual Gross Revenue


Stock market volatility has spiked
Stock Market Volatility has Spiked Construction in 30 years


M2 money stock
M2 Money Stock Construction in 30 years


Current market conditions
Current Market Conditions Construction in 30 years


Confidence in overall economy
Confidence in Overall Economy Construction in 30 years


Future health of the economy
Future Health of the Economy Construction in 30 years


Total revenue
Total Revenue Construction in 30 years


Total revenue1
Total Revenue Construction in 30 years


Expenses and costs
Expenses and Costs Construction in 30 years


Overall business climate
Overall Business Climate Construction in 30 years


Federal debt and recovery
Federal Debt and Recovery Construction in 30 years


Consumer price index
Consumer Price Index Construction in 30 years


Us lmv sales are recovering slowly
US LMV Sales are Recovering Slowly Construction in 30 years


Consumer confidence is very weak
Consumer Confidence is Very Weak Construction in 30 years



2011 crisis of confidence c 5
2011 Crisis of Confidence – C Construction in 30 years5

  • Consumer Confidence

  • Business Confidence

  • Investors Confidence

  • Government Confidence

  • International Confidence


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