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NMTA Economic Forecast. November 9, 2011. Jim Hebert Hebert Research, Inc. 2011 Nobel Prize Winners Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims. Structural Macroeconomic Model (X,Y) = (Y,X) Mathematical Model - Rate of Change Statistical Model - Historical Variables that do not change:

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NMTA

Economic Forecast

November 9, 2011

Jim Hebert

Hebert Research, Inc.

2011 nobel prize winners thomas sargent and christopher sims
2011 Nobel Prize WinnersThomas Sargent and Christopher Sims
  • Structural Macroeconomic Model

(X,Y) = (Y,X)

  • Mathematical Model - Rate of Change
  • Statistical Model - Historical Variables that do not change:

X= el+allX-1 + a21X-2 +BllYl + b21Y-2 + cllZ-1 + CZ ~ Z+ -el

Y= c2 + aEX-1 + a22X-2 + buy1 + b22Y-2 + CEZ-+ ~c22Z-2 + e2

Z= c3 + a13X-1 + ~ 2 ~X+- 2b i3Y-I + b23x2 + c ~ ~ + Z c2-3Z~-2 + e3

market demand based on conditional probabilities
Market Demand Based on Conditional Probabilities
  • Where P(Xi │Yj) = Pij / (∑ Pij)
  • X1 = Ability to purchase

X2 = Willingness

X2 = Delayed Decision

demand equation for marine products and service
Demand Equation For Marine Products and Service
  • d = f {Hp + Eu}
      • Where beta home price – 0.297
      • Employment – 0.685
      • R2 = 0.878
2011 crisis of confidence c 5
2011 Crisis of Confidence – C5
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Business Confidence
  • Investors Confidence
  • Government Confidence
  • International Confidence
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