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NMTA Economic Forecast. November 9, 2011. Jim Hebert Hebert Research, Inc. 2011 Nobel Prize Winners Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims. Structural Macroeconomic Model (X,Y) = (Y,X) Mathematical Model - Rate of Change Statistical Model - Historical Variables that do not change:

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NMTA Economic Forecast

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NMTA

Economic Forecast

November 9, 2011

Jim Hebert

Hebert Research, Inc.


2011 Nobel Prize WinnersThomas Sargent and Christopher Sims

  • Structural Macroeconomic Model

    (X,Y) = (Y,X)

  • Mathematical Model - Rate of Change

  • Statistical Model - Historical Variables that do not change:

    X= el+allX-1 + a21X-2 +BllYl + b21Y-2 + cllZ-1 + CZ ~ Z+ -el

    Y= c2 + aEX-1 + a22X-2 + buy1 + b22Y-2 + CEZ-+ ~c22Z-2 + e2

    Z= c3 + a13X-1 + ~ 2 ~X+- 2b i3Y-I + b23x2 + c ~ ~ + Z c2-3Z~-2 + e3


Market Demand Based on Conditional Probabilities

  • Where P(Xi │Yj) = Pij / (∑ Pij)

  • X1 = Ability to purchase

    X2 = Willingness

    X2 = Delayed Decision


Demand Equation For Marine Products and Service

  • d = f {Hp + Eu}

    • Where beta home price – 0.297

    • Employment – 0.685

    • R2 = 0.878


This is WA’s Worst Downturn in Non-Residential Construction in 30 years


Single-Family Home Prices Continue to Decline


More Foreclosures Can Be Expected


Housing Indicators


Income and Employment


Nonfarm Payroll Employment


WA Employment is Still in the Hole


WA State BusinessesFull Time Employees


Unemployment Rate (% of Labor Force)


Education and Unemployment


Software Publishing Employment is Growing


Boeing Has Over 7 Years of Commercial Orders on its Books


Manufacturing Employment


WA State BusinessesAnnual Gross Revenue


Stock Market Volatility has Spiked


M2 Money Stock


Current Market Conditions


Confidence in Overall Economy


Future Health of the Economy


Total Revenue


Total Revenue


Expenses and Costs


Overall Business Climate


Federal Debt and Recovery


Consumer Price Index


US LMV Sales are Recovering Slowly


Consumer Confidence is Very Weak


Marine Industry Economic Impact for 2012


2011 Crisis of Confidence – C5

  • Consumer Confidence

  • Business Confidence

  • Investors Confidence

  • Government Confidence

  • International Confidence


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