Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural sub saharan africa targeting the most vulnerable
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Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable. Project Overview and Update May 2, 2010. Attendees. Christoph Mueller, PIK Gerald (Jerry) Nelson, IFPRI. MOTIVATION.

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Project Overview and Update May 2, 2010

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Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural sub saharan africa targeting the most vulnerable

Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

Project Overview and Update

May 2, 2010


Attendees

Attendees

  • Christoph Mueller, PIK

  • Gerald (Jerry) Nelson, IFPRI

Page 2


Motivation

MOTIVATION

  • Long-term changes in climate will disproportionately affect developing world

  • Effects of climate change vary across regions, farming and food systems, households, and individuals

  • Analysis must combine biophysical and socio-economic factors

    • Global

    • Regional

    • Local

Page 3


Project overview and update may 2 2010

Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse2050 climate relative to 2000 climate

NCAR GCM, A2 Scenario


Project overview and update may 2 2010

Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse2050 climate relative to 2000 climate

CSIRO GCM, A2 Scenario


Impact s food production units 281 fpus

IMPACT’s Food Production Units (281 FPUs)


Climate change makes food price increases greater

Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater

Greater price increases with climate change

Prices increase without climate change

Page 7


Climate change increases childhood malnutrition

Climate Change Increases Childhood Malnutrition

Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa

With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere

Page 8


Adaptation costs are over 7 billion per year

Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per year

  • Required additional annual expenditure

    • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion

    • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion

  • Regional level

    • Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads

    • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency

    • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research

    • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency

Page 9


Outputs year 2 and 3

Outputs, year 2 and 3

  • Strategies for adaptation policies in high level fora

  • Options for adaptation developed in member countries w/ natl. researchers and collaborators

  • Policy dialogue meetings in member countries to get insights on research in progress, identify communication channels to achieve maximum impact.

  • Identification of gaps in adaptation analysis and research needs identified in the policy dialogue meetings.


Selected outputs since last meeting

Selected outputs since last meeting

  • IFPRI Food Policy Report on costs of adaptation – included results for SSA

  • ZALF review of literature – published as IFPRI discussion paper

  • ZALF Tanzania household/farmer practice survey, presentations in May

  • Involvement in UNFCCC negotiations

    • Side event in Bonn, June 2009

    • ARDD 1 focused on climate change and agriculture in Copenhagen

    • Side event in Bonn, June 2010

    • ARDD2 planed in Cancun, December 4, 2010

Page 11


Planned outputs

Planned outputs

  • PIK – Paper on hotspots of change, in process

  • ASARECA – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for ASARECA member countries – forthcoming as IFPRI discussion paper

  • FANRPAN – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for FANRPAN member countries in progress

  • Vulnerability assessments – draft template designed (see Kenya template) and process to identify country authors underway

Page 12


Three provocative theses

Three ‘provocative’ theses

  • Our understanding of local climate change outcomes is bad

  • The best adaptation policies/programs today are

    • Good development policies that enhance widespread economic growth and productivity improvements

    • Global information sharing about climate responsiveness of today’s varieties

    • Identify climate-related research gaps

Page 13


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