Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural sub saharan africa targeting the most vulnerable
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Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable. Project Overview and Update May 2, 2010. Attendees. Christoph Mueller, PIK Gerald (Jerry) Nelson, IFPRI. MOTIVATION.

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Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural sub saharan africa targeting the most vulnerable

Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

Project Overview and Update

May 2, 2010


Attendees
Attendees Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

  • Christoph Mueller, PIK

  • Gerald (Jerry) Nelson, IFPRI

Page 2


Motivation
MOTIVATION Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

  • Long-term changes in climate will disproportionately affect developing world

  • Effects of climate change vary across regions, farming and food systems, households, and individuals

  • Analysis must combine biophysical and socio-economic factors

    • Global

    • Regional

    • Local

Page 3


Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable2050 climate relative to 2000 climate

NCAR GCM, A2 Scenario


Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable2050 climate relative to 2000 climate

CSIRO GCM, A2 Scenario


Impact s food production units 281 fpus
IMPACT’s Food Production Units Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable(281 FPUs)


Climate change makes food price increases greater
Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

Greater price increases with climate change

Prices increase without climate change

Page 7


Climate change increases childhood malnutrition
Climate Change Increases Childhood Malnutrition Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa

With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere

Page 8


Adaptation costs are over 7 billion per year
Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per year Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

  • Required additional annual expenditure

    • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion

    • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion

  • Regional level

    • Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads

    • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency

    • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research

    • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency

Page 9


Outputs year 2 and 3
Outputs, year 2 and 3 Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

  • Strategies for adaptation policies in high level fora

  • Options for adaptation developed in member countries w/ natl. researchers and collaborators

  • Policy dialogue meetings in member countries to get insights on research in progress, identify communication channels to achieve maximum impact.

  • Identification of gaps in adaptation analysis and research needs identified in the policy dialogue meetings.


Selected outputs since last meeting
Selected outputs since last Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerablemeeting

  • IFPRI Food Policy Report on costs of adaptation – included results for SSA

  • ZALF review of literature – published as IFPRI discussion paper

  • ZALF Tanzania household/farmer practice survey, presentations in May

  • Involvement in UNFCCC negotiations

    • Side event in Bonn, June 2009

    • ARDD 1 focused on climate change and agriculture in Copenhagen

    • Side event in Bonn, June 2010

    • ARDD2 planed in Cancun, December 4, 2010

Page 11


Planned outputs
Planned outputs Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

  • PIK – Paper on hotspots of change, in process

  • ASARECA – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for ASARECA member countries – forthcoming as IFPRI discussion paper

  • FANRPAN – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for FANRPAN member countries in progress

  • Vulnerability assessments – draft template designed (see Kenya template) and process to identify country authors underway

Page 12


Three provocative theses
Three ‘provocative’ theses Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable

  • Our understanding of local climate change outcomes is bad

  • The best adaptation policies/programs today are

    • Good development policies that enhance widespread economic growth and productivity improvements

    • Global information sharing about climate responsiveness of today’s varieties

    • Identify climate-related research gaps

Page 13


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