Rhode island ghg scenarios 2007 update
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Rhode Island GHG Scenarios 2007 Update. Charlie Heaps Stockholm Environment Institute - U.S. Center 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA 02144 Web: www.sei-us.org Email: [email protected] Revised RI GHG Emissions Scenarios for 2007.

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Rhode Island GHG Scenarios 2007 Update

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Rhode island ghg scenarios 2007 update

Rhode Island GHG Scenarios2007 Update

Charlie Heaps

Stockholm Environment Institute - U.S. Center

11 Curtis Avenue

Somerville, MA 02144

Web: www.sei-us.org

Email: [email protected]


Revised ri ghg emissions scenarios for 2007

Revised RI GHG Emissions Scenarios for 2007

  • Baseline revised for first time in 5 years (shown last time) using a new and simpler methodology. Recap…

    • Eliminates end-use detail.

    • Now based primarily on EIA State energy data reports for consumption data (sector by fuel detail only)

    • Uses EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook results for New England to project consumption growth and future electric sector mix.

    • No changes made to non-energy sector baseline.

    • No changes made to emissions factors.

  • Measures have been updated..

    • Added consideration of RGGI in Implemented Scenario.

    • Added consideration of Least Cost Procurement (75% of SBC @ same unit costs and savings)

    • Revised B&F measures analysis: SBC measures grouped together and shifted to using utilities’ cost estimates for these options, instead of in-house estimates.

    • Updated prices using EIA historical state data and fuel price projections from AEO2006 and RGGI, and revised costs for Natural Gas and Wind operation.

    • No major updates to emission factors.

  • New analysis is simpler and easier to update in the future.


Reminder change in units

Reminder: Change in Units

  • In the past we have shown GHG emissions results as the Global Warming Potential of all greenhouse gases in Metric Tonnes Carbon equivalent.

  • We now use U.S. Short Tons. (1 Metric Tonne = 1.102 Short Tons)

  • To convert results into CO2 equivalent from Carbon equivalent multiply by 44/12 = 3.67.


Revised baseline target

Revised Baseline & Target


Ri ghg baseline by sector

RI GHG Baseline by Sector

Million Short Tons C eq.


Four scenarios ghgs compared to target

Four Scenarios’ GHGs Compared to Target

Million Short Tons C eq.

2020 Savings vs. Baseline:

I+F+UD = 1.41

I+F = 0.78

I = 0.64

NEG/CP = 1.26

Targets are:

1990 levels by 2010

10% below 1990 by 2020


Four scenarios ghgs compared to target in 2010 and 2020

Four Scenarios’ GHGs Compared to Target in 2010 and 2020


Four scenarios compared to target cumulative ghg emissions 2000 2020

Four Scenarios Compared to TargetCumulative GHG Emissions 2000-2020

Million Short Tons C eq.


Ri ghg savings by option in 2020 vs baseline

RI GHG Savings By Option in 2020 vs. Baseline

Million Short Tons C eq.


Buildings facilities ghg savings in 2020 summarized by option for 3 scenarios

Buildings & Facilities GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios

Million Short Tons C eq.

LCP assumed to equal 75% of SBC


Transport ghg savings in 2020 summarized by option for 3 scenarios

Transport GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios

Million Short Tons C eq.


Energy supply ghg savings in 2020 summarized by option for 3 scenarios

Energy Supply GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios

Million Short Tons C eq.


Other non energy ghg savings in 2020 summarized by option for 3 scenarios no change in modeling

Other (Non-Energy) GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios: No change in modeling

Million Short Tons C eq.


Comparison of ghg reductions 2007 versus 2006 estimates relative to each year s baseline

Comparison of GHG Reductions2007 versus 2006 estimates relative to each year’s baseline

Main Additional Policies:

▪ RGGI

▪ Least Cost Procurement

Million Short Tons C eq.


Cumulative net savings of three scenarios

Cumulative Net Savings of Three Scenarios

Million Cumulative

Discounted Dollars v.s Baseline

Notes:

Results highly sensitive to fuel prices and other assumptions.

AEO2007 fuel price projections rather conservative (low) – higher prices = higher savings.

Does not include externality costs (would also increase savings)


Cumulative costs savings for 2020

Cumulative Costs & Savings for 2020

Million Cumulative Discounted Dollars vs. Baseline


Cost curve major options sorted by cost of saved carbon

Cost Curve: Major Options Sorted by Cost of Saved Carbon

Notes:

Values below X axis show net benefits. GHG savings and costs are cumulative from 2000-2020. Costs are discounted.


Sensitivity aeo2007 prices 50 in 2020 net savings of 3 scenarios

Sensitivity: AEO2007 Prices +50% in 2020Net Savings of 3 Scenarios

Million Cumulative

Discounted Dollars v.s Baseline

Notes:

Sensitivity assumes 50% higher prices for Natural Gas and Gasoline in 2020.

Benefits increase by $400m for I+F scenario and by ~$700m for I+F+UD scenario.


Carbon monoxide emissions by scenario

Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Scenario

Thousand Short Tons

Notes:

I and I+F have almost the same values so only one is visible.

CO emissions are dominated (96%) by transport. Transport policies are the same between I and I+F.


Pm10 emissions by scenario

PM10 Emissions by Scenario

Short Tons


Nox emissions by scenario

NOx Emissions by Scenario

Thousand Short Tons


Voc emissions by scenario

VOC Emissions by Scenario

Thousand Short Tons


So2 emissions by scenario

SO2 Emissions by Scenario

Thousand Short Tons


Summary of local air pollutant emissions

Summary of Local Air Pollutant Emissions


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