A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong
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A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong. Paul Yip. Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong. Outlines. An overview of the population and marriage distribution

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A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong

Paul Yip

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong


Outlines

Outlines

  • An overview of the population and marriage distribution

  • An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number babies born to a woman over the child bearing period)

  • Opportunities and challenges


Population size of hong kong sar

Population size of Hong Kong SAR


Number of births and tfrs of hk 1961 2004

Number of births and TFRs of HK, 1961 - 2004


Net nuptiality female hong kong 1981 and 2001

Net nuptiality (female), Hong Kong, 1981 and 2001


Age specific fertility rates of hong kong 1971 2004

Age-specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004


Percentage distribution of live births by order of live birth 1981 2003

Percentage distribution of live births by order of live birth, 1981-2003


Total marital fertility rates

Total marital fertility rates

  • The TMFR depends on age of marriage

  • Overall, the TMFR has also decreased for the past 2 decades

  • In 2001, the TMFR for resident women was around 2 (close to the replacement level), given that they got married at 20

  • However, the figure would shrink to 1.6 if they got married at 25


Marriage age postponement

Marriage age postponement


Marriage squeeze phenomenon in hong kong 1

Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (1)


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

  • Assuming the 2001 marriage pattern prevails, it is projected that about 29.7% of males and 24% of female would remain single when they reach 40


Marriage squeeze phenomenon in hong kong 2

Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (2)


Total marital fertility rates by age of marriage in hong kong 1981 2001

Total marital fertility rates by age of marriage in Hong Kong, 1981 - 2001


Total marital fertility rates of hong kong by age of getting married 2001

Total marital fertility rates of Hong Kong by age of getting married, 2001


Live births of hong kong by residence of parents 1991 2004

Live births of Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 - 2004


Proportions of live births in hong kong by residence of parents 1991 2004

Proportions of live births in Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 – 2004


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

Number of live births in Hong Kong by

residence of mothers, 1981 - 2003


Reasons for decline of tfr

Reasons for decline of TFR

  • Reduction on marital fertility rate

  • Increase in the number of spinsterhood

  • Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females)

  • Imbalance of the supply and demand (bachelors vs. spinsters) about 90,000 of women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (25-49)


Why a study on barriers to fertility for married couples

WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility for married couples

  • Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study by the Family Planning Association

  • A similar study entitled “Barriers on Fertility” Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002)

    The three major concerns:

    1. Unfavorable Economic condition

    2. Unsatisfactorily Education service

    3. Individual preference.


Number of spinsterhood is increasing

Number of spinsterhood is increasing


Proportion of ever married persons

Proportion of ever married persons


Fertility

Fertility

  • Do we have a problem? Yes!

  • Is it a tempo problem? No!


Speed and magnitude of the reduction of the fertility

Speed and Magnitude of the reduction of the Fertility

  • It is the speed and the magnitude of the reduction of the fertility rate,


What can we learn from the overseas countries

What can we learn from the overseas countries

  • Different measures have been implemented in many countries which have experienced low fertility (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that inhibit fertility decline.

  • Are they relevant in Hong Kong?


Total fertility rates of hong kong and selected low fertility economies 1995 2002

Total fertility rates of Hong Kong andselected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

Window closes earlier when the age truncating

fortotal dependency ratio changed

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

The challenges:

Quantity

vs

Quality

  • How to revert the low fertility:

  • Replacement Migration:

  • Healthy Population:


Low fertility

Low fertility

  • About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility rate

  • Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three. Due to the late marriage, they might not be able to catch up (1st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003)

  • Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the critical staff problem first)


Replacement migration

Replacement migration

  • About more than 80% of the population growth from migration.

  • The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community.

  • They are not coming (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004).

  • Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age.

  • Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976, 2003 and 2033


Replacement migration slow down ageing

Replacement Migration: slow down ageing


Healthy population

Healthy Population

  • Life-long health promotion and practice

  • Healthy life style.

  • Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, smoking and attempted or completed suicides


To remove the obstacles for getting married and bearing babies

To remove the obstacles for getting married and bearing babies

Economic and Financial impact is a real concern.

  • A community consensus is needed.

  • How much the community is willing to pay for it? A higher tax?


Discussions

Discussions

  • Social Responsibility and Individual choice?

  • Someone has to pay for it. No free lunch!


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

Time to Act Now

Analogy of a clock:

  • Second arm (politics)

  • Minute arm (economic policy)

  • Hour arm (demography policy)


A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong

Thank you


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