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Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends

Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends. April 2009. Regional Airline Hiring. Past Present Future. Today’s market. The market today has many experienced pilots At ASA we have applicants with 7,000 plus hours and CRJ type ratings. . BUT!. Lets take a quick look at the past.

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Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends

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  1. Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends April 2009

  2. Regional Airline Hiring • Past • Present • Future

  3. Today’s market • The market today has many experienced pilots • At ASA we have applicants with 7,000 plus hours and CRJ type ratings.

  4. BUT! • Lets take a quick look at the past.

  5. In 2007 and early 2008 most regional airlines had difficulty filling new hire classes!

  6. 2007 ASA Statistics • Only filled 9 of 25 classes in 2007 • Why? • Not enough pilots • Why? • All regional airlines were hiring • Most were growing • Upgrade time

  7. Great Screening Process • 96 screening questions related to what we are looking for in an applicant

  8. In spite of our screening • 35% of the applicants cancelled, rescheduled or no showed the interview • 33% were rejected in the interview process

  9. Results of low supply • Some regionals had a 50%* failure rate • ASA had a 2.5% failure rate until Sept 07 • Filled classes in fall 07 and spring 08 but made mistakes • Failure rate increased to 4%

  10. Last 6 classes Average • Total hoursMulti-engine hours • 1017 149 • 969 360 • 825 157 • 918 119 • 729 193 • 47658

  11. Next Hiring Spree • Incredibly important to hire • A great employee • A great pilot

  12. RFP World Contract with majors Many up for renewal within the next 5 years To win a RFP Run a good airline - CF, D0, A0, A14 Passenger survey Cost competitive Must hire a great employee

  13. 2009/2010 Trend • “The economy always comes back” • “Expect last half of 2009 to see some improvement” • “Unheard of government intervention in US and around the world to help the economies” • “Fuel prices are down from last summer” • “Capacity reduced” • “Capacity cuts due to fuel prices came at perfect timing for falling ticket demand” • “Even with an 8 – 12% revenue decline some airlines will turn a profit in 2009”

  14. Trend - Continued • Will continue at a slow pace • some companies are still hiring • Improve as year goes on • Majors could be hiring in 2010 • But • Watch for another pilot shortage

  15. Possible Pilot Shortage? Am I nuts?

  16. Commercial License VS Hired

  17. 10 year summary

  18. Shortfall • 19,000

  19. Error 1 • How many of the 89,600 pilots obtaining their commercial license were from foreign countries and will never fly in the US?

  20. Error 2 • How many pilots of the 108,600 pilots hired were counted twice or possibility three times? • Suggest errors cancel out

  21. Error 3 • How many pilots were hired by corporations that are not counted?

  22. Age 65 Rule • By December 2012 we’ll start seeing the effects of age 65. • preliminary results show • 15,000 in 10 years reach age 65 • Additional ? % will be lost due to medicals • How many retire at age 60? • Add regional airline pilot retirements

  23. Next 10 Years • “There is no reason to believe the industry will not average hiring 10,000 pilots a year over the next decade.”

  24. Prediction! • Within 2 years of the time the major airlines start hiring we’ll have another pilot shortage. • Another key reason for shortage– new student starts!

  25. Student starts? • Have you checked with major aviation universities and flight schools in America today? • How many new students do they have? • How many students will fly in America when finished with training? • Flight schools out of business in the last few years?

  26. Why the drastic decline? • Exaggerated negative news • Cost of flight training • Ability to obtain a loan – start or complete training • 1st year pay • Repay student loans – 10 to 30 yr pay out • House payment • Chance of furlough

  27. What we need to do? • Encourage young pilots – high schools, work as team with majors • Visit and encourage Aviation Universities • Visit and encourage Major Flight Schools • Work with OBAP and ACE program • Work with Women in Aviation • Down time now

  28. Share good news • Some airlines still hiring • Economy runs in cycles • Growth after down cycle • Estimated number of pilots to be hired in next decade • Equipment they will fly in the future

  29. What a great job we have in the airline industry. • Seniority system • Days off • Travel • Salaries • Fun

  30. Encourage students! • Study hard • Stay away from drinking and driving • Stay away from drugs • Be a cut above • Don’t blow a million dollar chance to be an airline pilot

  31. More we can do • Improving selection system in our down time • Are we wasting money on selection procedures that are not working? • How do we know they are working? • Do we have a solid feedback loop? • Do we have predictive validity at every decision point in your selection process? • Decisions subjective or objective?

  32. Wasting $$$$ ? • How much money is being wasted hiring the wrong employee and/or wrong pilot? • How much does it cost the airline over a pilot’s career when you hire someone who is constantly failing checkrides? • What does it cost when you hire someone with a poor work ethic?

  33. Trends - Flight time VS FTDs • Schools are using more time in FTDs to reduce training cost/lower education cost • Will industry stick with straight flight hours requirements for hiring? • Interns at ASA • Middle ground!

  34. Trend – Final thought • If we accept the concept there will be another pilot shortage • We in America need to be looking at MPL • Has been accepted and proven overseas.

  35. Help • Any figures or thoughts you have related to: • Age 65 • Hiring • Failures in training • MPL • Encouraging young pilots • Direction of the industry

  36. Questions? • Captain Dan Robertson (retired) • dan.robertson@flyasa.com • 404-856-1723 • 404-702-0574

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