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Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP. Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh (Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger). EIONET seminar: Fo r ward-looking information in environment assessment 19-20 May 2008. PRESENTATION. I – Forward-Looking Assessments

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main eea activities scenario and forward studies group

Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studiesGROUP

Teresa Ribeiro

Anita Pirc-Velkavrh

(Axel Volkery)

(AnneKathrin Jaeger)

EIONET seminar:

Forward-looking information in environment assessment

19-20 May 2008

presentation
PRESENTATION
  • I – Forward-Looking Assessments
  • II – Improving the Information System(IS)
  • III- Cooperation & Capacity Building
slide3

I - Forward-looking assessments

PAST ACTIVITIES:

  • SOER ( Overview)

European Environment Outlook 2005

  • PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios)
  • Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)
slide4

I - Forward-looking assessments

SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005

  • Key socio-economic developments
    • Demography
    • Macro-economy
    • Technological and sectoral developments
    • Energy and transport
    • Agriculture
    • Waste and material flows
    • Consumption patterns
  • Outlooks developed for various environmental themes
    • GHG emissions and climate change
    • Air quality
    • Water stress
    • Water quality
slide5

I - Forward-looking assessments

Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005

  • Geographical coverage - EU 25
  • Baseline projections (2020-2030),
  • Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100)
  • Interactions between sectoral developments and environmental issues
  • Distance to target analyses
  • Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers
prelude pr ospective e nvironmental analysis of l and u se d evelopment in e urope
PRELUDEPRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

I - Forward-looking assessments

Project objectives and outputs

  • To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)
  • To provide a contextagainst which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.
  • Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies
prelude pr ospective e nvironmental analysis of l and u se d evelopment in e urope1
PRELUDEPRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

I - Forward-looking assessments

  • New approaches to scenario communication:
    • video/audio-animated presentation tool
    • Broad communication brochure with DVD
    • Interactive mind-stretcher
    • Video presentation for Green week
  • Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development
  • PRELUDE 2 Action
prelude land use change scenarios

Land use type ALand use type BLand use type C

Current Situation

...

Future

What Changes?

...

Where?

...

Environmental impacts?

PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios

I - Forward-looking assessments

scenario development

‘Story-and-Simulation‘

EEA

Quant. Scen.

Experts

Stakeholders

Qual. Scen

Data &

Modelling

Group(s)

☺Floods

☺ Biodiv.

European Land Use Change Scenarios

The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors.

The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity …

Scenario development
a prelude to europe s future
A Prelude to Europe’s Future

5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape

  • Europe of Contrast – Great Escape
  • Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society
  • Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks
  • Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U
  • Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis
slide13

I - Forward-looking assessments

What are the prospects for the environmentin the pan-European region?

complex and dynamic environment

Belgrade report findings

what if...

PROJECTIONS

SCENARIOS

drivers of future change

uncertainties

slide14

Pan-Europeanenvironmental outlooks*:

  • Air quality
  • Climate change
  • Biodiversity loss
  • Waste and material use
  • *based on the key findings of the Belgrade report

Environmental changes are commonlydriven by wider socio-economic trends, such as :

  • Political stability
  • Globalisation and trade
  • Macro-economic trends
  • Demographic patterns
  • Consumptions patterns
  • Land and natural

resources use

  • Global environmental

governance

Future related uncertainties

example from the report outlook biodiversity loss
Example from the report:Outlook – Biodiversity loss

Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100

“The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.”

example from the report driver demographic patterns

EECCA

WCE

SEE

Example from the report:Driver: Demographic patterns

Uncertainties (e.g. migration)

Population growth

Population projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)

Scenarios e.g:

Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007

example from the report driver consumption patterns
Example from the report:Driver: Consumption patterns

Waste growth

Energy

  • Energy consumption is
  • expected to increase.
  • Total waste generation is expected to continue to grow
  • Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner

Source: IEA

Transport: passenger and freight

Key future concerns

To understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forces

Source: IEA/WBSCD

driver consumption patterns

IEA energy scenarios

WBCSD transport scenarios

National energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE region

The future European food chain: Sweden

Scenarios, e.g.:

Driver: Consumption patterns

Uncertainties

  • Development of the future EU policy in energy, transport
  • Future development of policies in EECCA region
  • Prospect of technology breakthroughs
  • Global politics and unexpected events
  • Changes of consumption patterns
slide19

II - IS with forward-looking components

PAST ACTIVITIES

  • Review of available scenario studies in pan-European region
  • Review of relevant available models at EU level
  • Review of available outlook indicators from different sources
  • Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA
  • Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgradereport, IMS(F), catalogue).
an overview of scenario studies 2007
AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007)

II - IS with forward-looking components

Information gaps in scenario studies

Scope of the overview

  • Pan-European relevance
  • More than 100 studies reviewed
    • internet, contacts with experts,
    • English and Russian studies, all SEE languages
  • Main issues coveredwere economy, energy, political scenarios
  • Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional level

Review is available on Envirowindows scenario website

  • Environmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, waste
  • Transport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issues
  • Problems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues
review of modelling tools

II - IS with forward-looking components

REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS
  • 20 modelling tools are described in standardised model
  • descriptions out of a list of 130 models
    • based on public available information - review by
    • experts
  • Overview of 35 participative models
slide23
Towards an online model inventory

Transfer of templates into anonline model inventory:

  • One-off review activities do not capture dynamic developments
  • There is a need for pooling knowledge and expertise
  • Broaden perspectives of modellers and model users – feedback function

A web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellers

Hosted by EEA but updated by modellers

slide24

II - IS with forward-looking components

Overview of available outlookindicators

-relevant to pan-European region

IMS and CIRCA

http://ims.eionet.europa.eu/IMS/ISpecs/sets#Outlook

Key results

  • Review ~ 150 indicators
      • from 14 institutions
      • 14 models
  • Themes and issues not well covered:

terrestrial, fisheries, waterquality, land and natural resources use,

environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues

  • 59 are in the IMS (F)
  • 30 outlookindicators used in the Glimpses report
  • 10 outlook indicators used in Belgrade report
  • 12 are related to the EEA CSI
  • All included in Catalogue (2008)
slide26

Catalogue of outlook indicators

59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer

slide30

II - IS with forward-looking components

The way forward:

  • 2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators
  • 2009: consultation with countries
  • Regular update of few of them?
slide31

III - Cooperation and capacity building

PAST ACTIVITIES:

  • Countries
  • Regions (SEE, EECCA…)
  • UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4
  • MA – Scenarios report
  • Research Networks and publications
slide32

III - Cooperation with countries

- Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country level

  • Workshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between them

Slovenia 2005:

  • Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in transport and waste sector for 4 different scenarios
  • Identification of gaps in existing strategies and robust goals and measures for all scenarios

Turkey 2006/7:

  • Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenarios
  • Identifyication of adequate policy measures for developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario
prelude 2action austria
PRELUDE 2action - Austria

III - Cooperation with countries

Initiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry

    • 1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuit
    • Around 40 participants from different national and regional authorities
    • Lively, open discussion
      • What is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?)
      • What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?)
      • What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?)
  • Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008
slide34

III - Cooperation with countries

NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009):

Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security project

  • Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus
  • scenario development activity to strengthen countries capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern Europe

This activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010

slide36

III - Cooperation -

Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:

Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 report

  • Developing the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios)
    • Bringing together European stakeholder team to support this task
  • Contributing to thequantitative analyses to support narratives
  • Contributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report
slide37

III - Cooperation -

Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MA

  • Scenarios team since beginning
  • Development of scenarios
  • Co-authored several chapters of the Scenario Assessment report.

MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008)

  • Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios
recent contributions to other foresight research projects processes
Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes
  • IWRM-NET WP 3: ”Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management” (Advisory group) - 2008
  • STOA / Danish Board of Technology: ”The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe” (Advisory group) – 2007/2008
  • DG RTD ”Long-term research needs in agriculture” – 2007
  • MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.
slide40

Methodological developments and scenarios

  • Conference presentations
  • Linking with main Knowledge centres

(Oxford, MA, …….)

  • Scientific publications

(MA, MA manual, …. )

  • other research projects
prelude pr ospective e nvironmental analysis of l and u se d evelopment in e urope2
PRELUDEPRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

Project objectives and outputs

  • To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)
  • To provide a contextagainst which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.
  • Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies
  • New approaches to scenario communication:
    • video/audio-animated presentation tool
    • Stylish brochure
    • Interactive mind-stretcher
  • Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development
blossom
BLOSSOM

Background

  • Long-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspective
  • A couple of challenges:
    • The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments...
    • ... but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments?

 Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions

blossom cont
BLOSSOM cont.

Main questions

  • What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making?
  • Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literature
  • Is this due to:
    • Lack of evaluation?
    • Lack of appropiate methods?
    • Lack of appropiate institutions?
blossom cont1
BLOSSOM cont.

Main rationale

Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods

  • A systemetic effort to:
    • Take stock
      • Scrutinize institutional arragements
        • Analyse methods and develop case studies
          • Foster information exchange and learning
blossom cont2
BLOSSOM cont.

BLOSSOM 1.0

Started January 2008

  • Organisations review
  • Literature review
  • Expert workshop
blossom cont3
BLOSSOM cont.

First results

  • Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature”, so far...
  • Some of the main findings:
    • Little to less work on factors that influence the successful use of scenarios
    • Most empirical cases come from the world of business
    • Little to less work on failure of scenario exercises
    • Growing literature evaluating environmental assessments does not make a significant mentioning of scenarios
    • Institutions – the missing debate?
    • Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.
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