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Space Based Radar – the Warfighter's Perspective. 5 th International MAS Symposium. June 2002. Mike Tomlinson [email protected] 256-864-8355. Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; distribution unlimited. Agenda. Studies and Analysis Division Background

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Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Space Based Radar –

the Warfighter's Perspective

5th International MAS Symposium

June 2002

Mike Tomlinson

[email protected]

256-864-8355

Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; distribution unlimited


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Agenda

  • Studies and Analysis Division Background

  • Top Level Study Objectives and Methodology

  • Dominant Maneuver Force-on-Force Modeling Overview

  • Janus and Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) Results

  • Summary


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Studies & Analysis Division

SMD Battle Lab Organization

SMDBL Director

Deputy Director

Deputy for Space

BL Operations Div.

Simulations Directorate

Huntsville

Space Directorate

Colorado Springs

Missile Defense Directorate

Huntsville

Simulations Development Division

Huntsville

Concepts and Initiatives Division

Colorado Springs

Combat Applications Division

Huntsville

Computer Resources Division

Huntsville

Experiments Division

Colorado Springs

Exercises & Training Division

Huntsville

Special Projects Division

Huntsville

Testbed Product Office

Huntsville

JNTF


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Studies & Analysis Division

- Mission -

  • Support experimentation through experimental

  • design, data collection, and post event analyses

  • Conduct analyses in support of materiel development

  • activities and requirements determination

  • Assess advanced concepts

  • Analytically support the definition of space and missile defense architectures for the future warfighter


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Top Level Study Objectives and Methodology

Study Objectives

  • Provide an analysis-based determination of Space Based Radar (SBR) capability to provide Persistent Global Situation Awareness

  • Show quantifiable utility of SBR for selected missions

  • Obtain Service, Joint, and Intelligence Community (IC) perspectives on SBR

  • Support the formal requirements, architecture, and analysis of alternatives processes

  • Present study results to the Milestone-A review

Study Methodology

  • Focus on the utility of SBR to find, track, and ID moving and fixed objects to support Persistent Global Situation Awareness in 2010+

    • Time-critical targeting for SEAD and Missile Defense in Major Theater War (MTW)

      • Precision Engagement, Dominant Maneuver Vignettes

      • Persistent Global IPB, I&W (Peacetime/Crisis)

      • Peacetime/ Crisis / Naval Situation Awareness

  • Used an architecture-neutral, top-down methodology for utility evaluation

  • in context of multi-INT ISR (Robust Baseline that included airborne MTI Providers)

    • Used reasonable SBR architectures

    • Used only to develop a range of potential SBR performance

    • Not sufficient to make constellation recommendations – only for insight


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Dominant Maneuver Force-on-Force Modeling

Study Purpose for Dominant Maneuver

Analyze the potential military utility of Space Based Radar for dominant maneuver mission in order to support formal requirements, architecture and analysis of alternatives process.

Essential Elements of Analysis for Dominant Maneuver

  • EEA 1. What is the value added to the Blue Force when Space Based Radar is utilized to assist in developing situational awareness in the Army deep fight?

  • EEA 2. How effective is a JSTARS equipped Blue force without knowledge provided by Space Based Radar compared to a case withknowledge provided by Space Based Radar?

  • EEA 3. How does Space Based information timeliness affect the Blue commander’s ability to conduct the deep fight in terms of force effectiveness?

  • EEA 4. Does the Blue Force make critical decisions based on information provided by Space Based Radar SAR based upon Space Based Radar GMTI detections?

  • EEA 5. How effective is the Blue Force when Space Based Radar has the ability to maintain a track on a high payoff target?

6


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

~260 km

X

X

X

NAI

I

AA 3

NAI

NAI

GORDO

UAV

X

AA 2

AA 4

UAV

X

X

~100 km

IBCT

AA 1

KAZAR

I

XX

ARFOR(-)

SKANDIA

I

MACRA

MLRS

I

I

I

ATACMS

Tools and Scenarios

Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS)

Janus

  • Closed Form , Force-on-Force, Stochastic Model

  • Division/Corp Echelon

  • IBCT Scenario

  • Threat in Offensive Posture

  • Blue ISR Assets-

    • Airborne Platforms

      • EO/IR

      • GMTI

    • Space Platforms

      • SAR

      • GMTI

  • End Game Criteria- 26 hours

  • Man-in-the-Loop, Force-on-Force, Stochastic Model

  • Battalion Echelon

  • Deep Attack with Helicopters and ATACMS

  • Threat in Defensive Posture

  • Blue ISR Assets-

    • Airborne Platforms

      • EO/IR

      • GMTI

    • Space Platforms

      • SAR

      • GMTI

  • End Game Criteria- 3 hours

7


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Helicopters

Blue Artillery

UAVs

Fixed Wing

Satellite Down Link

and Comm Architecture

Timeliness

Communication delay for SAR is the time from satellite collection to the shooter

GMTI information is broadcasted out with communication delays that are near real-time

Space GMTI/SAR

  • Direct Downlink Assumed

  • Only Space information that Blue directly shoots off of is SAR

  • GMTI is used to cue organic sensors and SBR SAR

  • 10 Minutes

  • 20 Minutes

Direct Downlink

8


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Satellite Constellation

Satellite Tool Kit (STK) Analysis : Model satellites in STK

  • Satellite constellation with multiple sensors modeled on each satellite

  • Any satellite platform/constellation with individual orbital elements can be modeled

  • Provides capabilities for analyzing satellite coverage over time

Satellites’ access to Area of Interest


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Satellite Constellation

Define satellite sensor types

SATELLITE

RANGE to Area of Interest

GMTI (50km x 50 km box) --

Altitude

Spot SAR (4km x4km box) --

STK output provides access times to Area of Interest based on sensor parameters

Satellites

Time


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Janus Results

11


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Base Case (no SBR)

With SBR SAR 20 minute delay, No HRR

With SBR SAR 10 minute delay, No HRR

With SBR SAR 20 minute delay, w/ HRR

With SBR SAR 10 minute delay w/ HRR

(12) AH-64 Apache

(2) OH-58 Kiowa Warrior

Aviation

I

I

I

(2) F-16

MLRS Rockets (SEAD)

MLRS ATACMS Block I

(6 missiles)

Fixed Wing SEAD

Artillery

I

I

I

Janus Scenario and Forces Modeled

Run Matrix

Deep Red Assets

(10) Dismounted Team

(2) ADA Gun

(8) SAMs

(1) ADA Radar

ADA

NAI

NAI

NAI

UAV

(3) TBM Type 1

(3) TBM Type 2

TELs

UAV

(34) Truck/ Re-supply Vehicles

Support/

Other

~100 km

BLUE

Red &

Blue Forces

MLRS

ISR Assets

(5) Airborne Platforms

(1) Space Constellation

ATACMS

12


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

ISR Assets for Deep Attack

4 SAR Accesses in Base Case / Airborne is limited due to LOS issues

Airborne Platform Accesses

17 SBR SAR Accesses in SBR cases

SBR SAR

SBR SAR and GMTI Access

SBR GMTI

Constant GMTI SBR Access in SBR cases

0

1.5

3 hours

Time

13


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Coverage

Base Case

Coverage

Space-Based

Coverage

Janus Deep Attack Area

14


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

10 Minute Delay

20 Minute Delay

5.3

Type A Losses Statistically Different from BC

2.5

Statistically Different from BC

Type B Losses Statistically Different from BC

2.3

15

Janus Key Findings

  • Timely Space information directly improves Blue’s survivability, lethality and force effectiveness.

    • Blue Helicopter losses decreased by over 61% between 20 and 10 min SBR delays.

    • Red Losses increased over 21% between 20 and 10 minute SBR delays.

  • GMTI enabled Blue to cue SAR in order to quickly locate stationary Red TELs prior to shooting and engage them with ATACMS and helicopters.

    • Red TEL Shots decreased by over 78% when Blue had HRR capability.

  • In a precision deep attack, tracking capability significantly enhances Blue’s TEL hunting capability.

    • Red TEL Losses increased by over 128% when Blue had HRR capability.


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

SEAS Results

16


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Red forces unexpectedly cross the national borders and attack on multiple avenues of approach when the Blue force is stretched along the north/south axis.

T-55s and T-72s, BMP-2s and BRDM-2s w/AT, 2S1 SP and 152mm SP Howitzers, Towed 120mm Mortars, ADA (SA-13s)

  • - 3 Motorized Infantry Brigades

  • - Mechanized Infantry Brigade

  • - Armored Brigade

  • - Artillery Brigade (152mm SP Howitzers, 122mm MRLs)

  • - ISR: Organic UAVs

The ARFOR commander leads the attack from the south into Kazar with the IBCT to secure the Airfield to permit forward build-up of follow-on forces.

- Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) (MGS, LAV, HIMARS Battery)

- Mechanized Infantry Brigade

- Attack Aviation Battalion (AH-64D, OH-58D)

- Artillery Brigade (MLRS Battery (ATACMS and Rkts), HIMARS Battalion (-) (Rkts only))

- Airborne Infantry Battalion w/ Towed 105mm Battery

- ADA Battery (Avenger, Linebacker, Sentinel)

- Fixed Wing Ground Attack Squadron (F-16s)

- ISR Assets : Airborne and Space Platforms

X

X

X

AA 3

GORDO

X

AA 4

AA 2

X

Airfield

Run Matrix

X

IBCT

Base Case (no Space)

AA 1

KAZAR

With Exemplar Space constellation (10 minute delay)

XX

ARFOR(-)

SKANDIA

With Perfect Space

(10 minute delay)

MACRA

SEAS Scenario Description

17


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

MTRBDE

MTRBDE

TKBDE

MTR BN

MTRBN

MTRBDE

MTR BN

MECH BDE

MTR BN

MTR BN

TK BN

MTR BN

MTR BN

IBCT

Airborne Bn

MECH BDE

19 -SAR SPOT (ID)

HIMARS BN (-)

8 -GMTI WAS (Blip Only)

MLRS Btry

Airborne Platforms

ARFOR

(Helicopters, Fixed Wing)

Airborne Platforms

SEAS Scenario

  • Prior to Red crossing the border, Red infiltrated eight battle groups in small units during the hours of darkness

  • Battle lasts approximately 26 hours after the IBCT starts movement and NAIs planned based on IPB and tempo of Blue maneuver

18


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Coverage

Base Case

Coverage

Space-Based

Radar

Coverage

Seas Scenario Area

19


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Different from BC

SEAS Screen Capture

SEAS Key Findings

  • SBR enhances situational awareness and decision making in the Deep Fight which improves prosecution of targets with air and artillery before direct fire forces close to engage

    • 37% increase in Red losses to air and artillery from the BC to the SBR Case.

    • LER increased by over 35% from the BC to the SBR LEO Case.

391.4

374.4

302.4

Different from BC

20


Space based radar the warfighters perspective

Summary

  • Space must be an integral part of the Objective Force equation

  • Army Experimentation has shown that Space can quickly be normalized by commanders and staff officers

  • Space Assets Provide:

    • Worldwide Information Gathering

    • Ground Movement Indication

    • Potential Attack Capability

    • Communication Enhancement

  • Emerging Analysis indicates Force multiplier that improves maneuver, fires, future planning, and near real-time Situational Awareness.


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