Insights and lessons from Hungarian quantitative evaluations. Balázs Váradi. Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis. www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest 26 September 2013. Outline of the talk. Introduction , disclaimers
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Insights and lessonsfromHungarianquantitativeevaluations
Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis
www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest 26 September 2013
Outline of thetalk
„Generals always fight the last war”
Impact assessments by BI in 2012-2013
Impact of programmeparticipation (e.g. on probability of reemployment , on productivity)
Selectcontrolgroupbymatching (propensityscore) ordiff-in-diff
Control group with same observed characteristics(e.g. age, sex, education, employment history, location, sector, firm size, etc.)
The method: impactanalysis
E.g. Impact of SROP 1.1.1
Do not forget about the ex post evaluation of the programmes of the previous period when the pressure of ex ante evaluation fades (soon), decent ex post evaluation just starts to become possible from 2015 onwards.
Donotlet 2007-2013 programmeresultsbecomeunsustainable and crumble (e.g. financingthenewoutpatient service locations).
Lessonsfor 2014-2020 I
Planmonitoring, datacollection and evenprogramme design (e.g. whereappropriate, randomizeselection) better, sothatreliableex post evaluationinthefuturebecomes (1) possible (2) cheap. A stitchintimesavesnine.
Be conservative: buildonwhatworks. Whereeveryoufoundsignificantpositiveeffects (e.g. employability, ambulatorycare), comparethosewiththealternatives (CB analysis) ifyoucan, makeadjustmentsbasedontheevaluations, and carryon.
Lessonsfor 2014-2020 II
Concentrate more on long-term effects, and generally put much more weight on well-chosen impact and outcome indicators rather than on output and process ones.
Considercarefullytheequityeffectsof programme design.
Be very-verydistrustful of unconditionaltransferstofirms.
Lessonsfor 2014-2020 III