1 / 12

Connecticut Outlook 2002:3 to 2006:4

Connecticut Outlook 2002:3 to 2006:4. Edward J. Deak, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Fairfield University Connecticut Model Manager NEEP. U.S Macro Forecast Economy.com 11/7/02. Recovery continues w/o double dip Productivity, low interest rates, fiscal stim

konala
Download Presentation

Connecticut Outlook 2002:3 to 2006:4

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Connecticut Outlook2002:3 to 2006:4 Edward J. Deak, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Fairfield University Connecticut Model Manager NEEP CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  2. U.S Macro ForecastEconomy.com 11/7/02 • Recovery continues w/o double dip • Productivity, low interest rates, fiscal stim • Shift growth engine: Housing to Bus Inv • Home prices vulnerable: Prices>Income • Rising business activity: Jobs, travel, Inv • Requires: Liquidity in equity+bond mkts • Risks on downside CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  3. Tracking the CT Recessionand Recovery? CT Indicator Best Worst Diff Sept 2002 Nonag Employ 7/00 12/01 -28.9k 1,672.8k 1,701k 1,672k Unemploy Rate 6-8/00 12/01 +1.9% 4.1% 2.1% 4.0% Wkly New Claims 9/00 10/01 +2,886 5,215 3,168 6,054 Labor Force 7/00 3/02 -45k 1,719.9k 1,753k 1,708k CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  4. CT Forecast 2002 Indicator 2001 2002 %CT %US Jobs (mil) 1.683 1.676 -0.4 -0.8 Mfg Jobs(th) 254 243 -4.3 -5.2 Nonmfg Jobs (th) 1,429 1,433 0.3 -0.1 RPer Inc (B$96) 130.4 130.6 -0.3 0.1 UE Rate (%) 3.29 3.85 6.0% Home Pmts 9,290 9,761 5.1 1.7 Lab Force (mil) 1.718 1.714 -0.2 0.6 RGSP (B$96) 150.78 154.44 2.4 2.3 CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  5. New Unemployment ClaimsWeekly Average (sa) CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  6. Major Job Cuts 4/02-10/02 Ames Dept Store 1,421 – Retail Envirotest 490 – Services Bayer Pharmaceuticals 450 – Chemicals Anderson Accounting 310 – Bus services Kaman 300 – Aerospace Aetna 300 – Insuracnce SNET/SBC 300 – Telcom Computer Sciences 165 – Bus services Bridgeport Machines 140 – Machine tools Pratt & Whitney 127 – Aircraft engines Sikorsky 150 – Helicopters CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  7. Major Job Addition 4/02-10/02 Latex Foam 85 – Rubber + plastics People’s Bank 43 – Finance A.J. Wright 40 – Retail ING 100 – Financial services CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  8. CT Forecast to 2006 CT Indicator 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jobs (mil) 1.676 1.689 1.723 1.742 1.755 Mfg Jobs (th) 243 245 248 247 247 Nonmf Jobs(mil) 1.433 1.445 1.475 1.495 1.508 Per Inc ($B96) 130.3 132.1 134.9 137.4 140.1 Home Pmts 9,761 8,923 9,296 8,941 8,939 Lab Force (mil) 1.714 1.722 1.737 1.751 1,764 RGSP (B$96) 154.4 158.4 164.3 168.5 174.2 Pop (mil) 3.436 3.442 3.447 3.453 3.459 CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  9. Trends in CT Indicators 1999-2006 CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  10. CT Tax Category CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  11. Deficit Options: FY ’03, ’04, ‘05A Two Part Struggle • Tax: Pers Income, sales tax/base, corp tax • Securitize tobacco settlement revenues • Cut + reform state spending - Options • Reduce government work-force cost • Reform Medicaid: Optional services • Streamline ed support services: Multi-town districts • Cut low value public programs • Use technology to cut costs: Web • FY ’04 + ’05 $1.5B estimated deficit • Revenue growth 2%+, expanding service demands CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

  12. CT Forecast Risks National: Fear of double dip recession Consumer debt + dock strike + holiday $ + refinance Federal and state deficits Federal (i) changes + deflation fears Lackluster equity markets + Energy prices Global instability – War with Iraq State: State Budget deficit – Pain:taxes + spending Higher energy costs + equity slide Defense funding + IT spending CT Forecast CECB 11/02, Slide

More Related