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Key Questions

Development of FIA BioSum to Evaluate Small Tree Biomass Production Possibilities, Costs and Fuel Treatment Effectiveness. Jeremy Fried, Jamie Barbour, Roger Fight, Glenn Christensen, Guy Pinjuv & others at USFS PNW, Rocky Mountain, and Southern Research Stations. Key Questions.

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Key Questions

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  1. Development of FIA BioSum to Evaluate Small Tree Biomass Production Possibilities, Costs and Fuel Treatment Effectiveness Jeremy Fried, Jamie Barbour, Roger Fight, Glenn Christensen, Guy Pinjuv & others at USFS PNW, Rocky Mountain, and Southern Research Stations

  2. Key Questions • Is there enough biomass to fuel a power plant? • Where is the best place to locate a power plant? • How long would biomass feedstocks last? • How much improvement in fire hazard? • How much land area could be treated?

  3. Fire Condition Classes guided study area selection

  4. Objectives for FIA BioSum Rapid assessment via off-the-shelf data and methods to: • Find hot spots of biomass accumulation • Assess fuel treatment accomplishments in terms of fire hazard reduction • Quantify removed materials by size • Learn how answers respond to pricing, silvicultural Rx, cost assumptions and logging system alternatives

  5. Manufacturing Costs Hauling Costs Harvesting Costs Silvicultural Prescriptions Users Specify… Product Prices

  6. Analytic Framework • Founded on FIA inventory plot/tree attributes • Risk-reduction inspired silvicultural Rxs • Location/stand-tailored harvest methods • Haul-costs calculated for all plot-processing site pairs • Apply (via FVS & FFE) all Rx to  database of treatment outputs for each plot • Merge with haul costs to ID top sites

  7. Refined methods with Klamath pilot

  8. Fire Condition Classes in Pilot Area

  9. 1068 Inventory Plots in Klamath Ecoregion 4.4 million acres 3.8 million roaded acres 1.6 million treatable acres

  10. Silvicultural Prescriptions • 7 Rx tested to date, including • Thin from below to various stocking limits • Uneven aged • SDI based across diameter classes • Concern that TFB not sustainable • But, many uneven aged Rx ineffective at reducing fire hazard

  11. Silvicultural Prescriptions Treatment A: Stocking Reduction Merchantable trees are thinned proportionately across diameter classes to target residual basal area • Treatment B: Fire Hazard Reduction • Merchantable trees are thinned from below to residual basal area target • Leaves minimum basal area

  12. Untreated Treatment A Treatment B

  13. Untreated Treatment A Treatment B

  14. Location of Potential Mill Sites

  15. Working “circles” in $2/ton increments $20/ton haul cost P-site

  16. “Best” processing site location depends on price, Rx & objective Red sites maximize something

  17. The incredible, shrinking plot base All 1068 plots 3.8 million acres 885 roaded plots 3.2 million acres 444 treatable plots 1.6 million acres 79 NetRev+ plots 0.3 million acres

  18. Millions of tons of biomass at $26/ton, Rx A Biomass Accumulation Potential Millions of tons of biomass at $26/ton, Rx B

  19. Average Green Tons/AcreP-site 181

  20. Accumulated green tonsP-site 181, @ $26/gr. ton

  21. Total Value by Biomass PriceP-site 181

  22. Percent of plots by net revenuefeeding P-site 181

  23. Biomass for energy production Typical 20 MegaWatt biomass fueled electrical generation plant consumes 700 green tons/day! • Treatment A: • At $26/ton accumulates 530,000 green tons • Power plant operates for 2 years • Treatment B: • At $26/ton accumulates 1.2 million green tons • Power plant operates for 4.7 years

  24. Lessons/Challenges • Torching Index not improved by uneven aged Rx we tried • Conventional harvest systems used; new approaches could greatly reduce costs • Accounting for infrastructure • Power lines, biogas pipelines, non-forest biomass sources

  25. Assume private landowners would select Rx that maximize fuel treatment or net revenue objectives? • 90% of tonnage not biomass- higher and more valuable usage almost certain • If manipulate to make it pay, how much fire safety actually achieved?

  26. Next Steps

  27. Expanding to 4 eco-sections…

  28. Then on to the Southwest…

  29. FIA BioSum DIY, the sequel • User accessible tool for “static analyses” that allows customization of: • Log/haul costs, delivered prices, transport network • Rxs, decision rules re: entry criteria & residual stand • Fire indices, risk reduction criteria • Specific sites to evaluate • Policy/institutional assumptions (e.g., willingness to treat) • Environmental mitigation • Size and species classes reported • And generates tables, reports, & maps

  30. Timeline for the road ahead • Add 4 OR/CA ecoregions – Aug 02 • AZ and NM (whole states) – Nov 02 • Develop user-friendly tool – ????

  31. Any questions?

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