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Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects

Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects. Francisco Munoz Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States

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Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects

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  1. Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects Francisco Munoz Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States 10-11 April 2008 CICESE, Ensenada México

  2. Outline • Motivation • Current Drought Assessment • Hydrological Forecast System • Coverage • VIC • Preliminary Drought Assessment • Further work

  3. Motivation • Effects of drought are among the most costly from different perspectives • Use of hydrological and agricultural drought forecasts • UW West-wide hydrologic forecast system – moving toward integral drought analysis over Mexico and the U.S.

  4. 15 13 19 28 7 28 9 15 11 12 1 6 7 12 12 5 12 6 8 1 1 1 4 8 6 6 1 7 10 4 2 Drought Events in the 20th Century from Arteaga Ramirez and Vazquez Peña, 1998

  5. Drought Assessment • Available Indices • Palmer Drought Index • Standardized Precipitation Index • Surface Water Supply Index • Proposed Method • Percentiles relative to the climatology (1960-1999) • Use of Hydrological Models to create continuous spatiotemporal patterns of drought-linked variables • Allow monitoring and forecast North American Drought Monitor, 2008 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/

  6. VIC Model

  7. Soil Moisture and Streamflow percentile (20%) UW-Westwide hydrologic forecast system (UW-HFS)

  8. Applications: climate forecast recent met data to generate “perfect” ICs ensemble of historical met data to generate ensemble forecast Spin-up ICs Forecast observed hydrologic state Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

  9. Streamflow Forecast • More than 200 stations over the US • Currently 23 Points over Mexico • 13 points over the NAM region (9 in the Yaqui basin)

  10. Yaqui River Basin Yaqui River Basin Bavispe River Angostura Paso Nacori Moctezuma River Aros - /Papigochi River Oviachi Yaqui River Gulf of California Yaqui Valley

  11. Runoff Forecast June 2007 July 2007

  12. Streamflow and Streamflow Anomaly Angostura

  13. Streamflow Anomalies Boquilla, BC Perlas, Chis Paso Nacori

  14. Probability of Drought Occurrence

  15. Summary • Spatial Distribution of Runoff percentiles emulates the NADM drought Index (PDI) • UW-HFS presents higher resolution • Wider distribution over southern BC and northern BCS • Higher values over southeastern Mexico • Important effect of initial conditions on the monsoon streamflow prediction

  16. Further work • Drought Monitoring and Forecast System • Implementation of the SIMOP (Reservoir Model) in the Yaqui basin • Integration of UW surface water monitor (national) with UW-HFS • Multi-model development over Mexico • NOAH, SAC, possibly others

  17. Additional Features SIMulador Operacional (SIMOP) Reservoir Operational Model for the Yaqui basin

  18. Current Mexican Basins

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