BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS
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BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS. Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE). Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014. Overview. Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3 Timeline……………………………………………………………….4 Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5

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Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

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Hangzhou october 8 2014

BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS

Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE)

Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014


Hangzhou october 8 2014

Overview

Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3

Timeline……………………………………………………………….4

Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5

Cycle Indicators...........................................................................9

Mostly used series and quantitative data...............................10

On Going Projects.....................................................................14


Fgv economic cycles

FGV Economic Cycles


Tendency surveys and c ycle indicators timeline of the fgv

Tendency Surveys and Cycle IndicatorsTimeline of the FGV

M

M

2012

2013

Labour market leading and coincident Indicators

Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV

M

2010

Trade &

Construction

M

2008

Services

Q

2007

Latin American

Economic Survey

Experts survey/part of Ifo WES

M

2005

Consumer

Q

1998

M

Investment

1966

Manufacturing(Quarterly until 2005)


System of tendency surveys

System of Tendency Surveys

  • Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been supported by the Brazilian Central Bank;

    • Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (www.portalibre.fgv.br);

  • Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.


Main statistical features

Main Statistical Features

  • Business tendency Surveys

  • Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European HarmonisedProgramme;

  • Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector;

    • Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls.

  • Consumer Survey

    • Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB;

    • Consumers stratified by income level and region (city);

    • Coverage – 7 major cities of the country;

    • Data collected by web and telephone calls.

    • Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/


Hangzhou october 8 2014

FGV Surveys – Size of Samples

  • * 4 incomelevels; 7 cities


Indicators from surveys used in brazil

Indicators from Surveys used in Brazil

  • Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses surveys are widely used in Brazil:

    • Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately);

    • Consumer´s employment assessment;

    • Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates);

    • Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle);

    • Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU);

    • Inventory levels;

    • Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).


Cycle indicators

Cycle Indicators

  • Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with other indicators:

    • Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators);

    • Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the Conference Board traditional family of indicators).


Hangzhou october 8 2014

Manufacturing Confidence Index

x Manufacturing Production*

Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE

* Published with a 40-day delay


Hangzhou october 8 2014

Future Business Situation x Investment

Source: FGV/IBRE


Hangzhou october 8 2014

Expected Employment x Industrial Employment

Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE


Hangzhou october 8 2014

Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic Index

Source: FGV/IBRE

The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).


On g oing p rojects

OnGoingProjects

  • Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-);

  • Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014);

  • Website for the working papers: http://bit.ly/TextosDeDiscussaoIBRE

  • Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-);

  • Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’ countriesand a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);


Hangzhou october 8 2014

Thanks


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