STATUS REPORT ON GEWEX AND WCRP MONSOON ACTIVITIES

1. STATUS REPORT ON GEWEX AND WCRP MONSOON ACTIVITIES GAME FOLLOW-ON MEETING TOKYO, JAPAN NOVEMBER 1, 2005 Rick Lawford Director, IGPO

2. GEWEX IS MIGRATING TO A NEW PARADIGM THE GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT (GEWEX) FOCUSES ON “THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF PLANETARY EARTH SCIENCE, OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS TO THE PROBLEMS OF CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES”

3. SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PAST YEAR 1. GEWEX HAS COMPLETED SOME PROJECTS (E.G. GAME, MAGS, CEOP I) AND STARTED OTHERS (E.G. AMMA, EXTREMES, CEOP II). 2. GEWEX HAS MADE PROGRESS IN INFLUENCING THE GEO PROCESS, IGWCO AND COPES. 3. THE NASA NEWS ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED OPPORTUNITIES FOR GEWEX RESEARCH IN THE USA. 4. THE CONTINUATION OF TRMM WILL CREATE NEW SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES RELATED TO PRECIPITATION. 5. THE EUROPEAN GEWEX COORDINATOR PROVIDES A POSSIBILITY FOR INCREASED INTERACTION BETWEEN GEWEX AND EUROPEAN SCIENTISTS.

4. SOME ISSUES GEWEX NEEDS TO DEAL WITH • ESTAB LISH THE GEWEX NICHE IN COPES. • COMPLETION OF THE GEWEX ROADMAP (2006-2012) AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION. • 3, DEVELOP A PLAN FOR A COORDINATED GEWEX/ CLIVAR APPROACH ON MONSOONS. • 4. RESPOND TO THE SPARC INTERESTS IN TROPOPAUSE WATER • VAPOR (GCSS), AND AEROSOLS AND RADIATION CODES IN • MODELS. • 5. DEVELOP A GOOD WORKING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NEW WCRP DIRECTOR. • 6. SUCCESSION PLANNING AND PREPARATION FOR REPLACEMENT OF LONGER-TERM LEADERS.

5. Response to COPES:Revised GEWEX Phase II Objectives (2003-2012): • Produce consistent research quality data sets complete with error descriptions of the Earth's energy budget and water cycle and their variability and trends on inter-annual to decadal time scales, and for use in climate system analysis and model development and validation. (**) • 2) Enhance the understanding of how energy and water cycle processes • function and quantify their contribution to climate feedbacks. (**) • 3) Determine the geographical and seasonal characteristics of the predictability • of key water and energy cycle variables over land areas and through collaborations with the wider WCRP community determine the predictabilityof energy and water cycles on a global basis. (**) • 4) Develop better seasonal predictions of water and energy cycle variability • through improved parameterisations encapsulating hydro-meteorological • processes and feedbacks for atmospheric circulation models. (***) • 5) Undertake joint activities with operational hydro-meteorological services and • hydrological research programmes to demonstrate the value of new GEWEX • prediction capabilities, data sets and tools for assessing the consequences • of climate predictions and global change. (*)

6. THE CHANGING FACE OF GHP CEOP IAEA NO FOLLOWON PLANS FOR MAGS AFTER 2005 CSEs Data Management Water and Energy Budget Studies ??? WITHIN NOAA, GAPP AND PACS ARE MERGING INTO CPPA Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group PHASE II LBA SYNTHESIS BEING PLANNED Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes GAME FOLLOWON NOW BEING PLANNED Transferability Water Resource Applications Project MDB AND LPB IMPLEMENTATION PLANS ARE NEEDED

7. In Salah Tamanrasset Noaudhibou Tessalit Sal Nouakchott Tombouctou Dakar Agadez Gao Tahoua Tambacounda Khartoum Ouagadougou Niamey Ndjamena Bamako Conakry Sarh Adis-Ababa Tamale Parakou Abuja Man Ngaoundere Bangui Cotonou Abidjan Douala AMMA Priority 1 stations AMMA Priority 2 stations US ISS stations (planned) Ouesso Libreville Other stations Pointe Noire AMMA: A New CSE that demonstrates that funding agencies will commit to climate science Tindouf The radiosounding network will be upgraded. : 5 LIDARs will be installed. 12 surface flux stations are to be deployed. Research aircraft: • D-F20 • F-F20 • F-ATR • UK-BAe146 AMMA mesoscale sites US-Ron Brown, F-Atalante, D-Meteor

8. SOME IGPO OUTREACH ACTIVITIES IN THE PAST 6 MONTHS COMPLETION OF THE GEWEX ACCOMPLISHMENTS BROCHURE. ESA HAS PRINTED AND MAILED A LARGE NUMBER OF COPIES. COMPLETION AND PUBLICATION OF A GEWEX OVERVIEW ARTICLE IN THE WMO BULLETIN. ROUTINE PRODUCTION OF THE NEWSLETTER AND MAINTENANCE OF THE GEWEX HOME PAGE. IDEAS FOR THEMES FOR THE GEWEX NEWSLETTER ARE INVITED. COMPLETION OF THE 5TH INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE CONFERENCE ON THE GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE (PLANS ARE UNDERWAY FOR A SPECIAL ISSUE OF JHM)

9. WCRP-COPESCoordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System AIM To facilitate analysis & prediction of Earth system variability & change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit & value to society

10. WCRP-COPESCoordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System Specific Objectives (with time-scales, milestones & metrics): to be determined in consultation with the WCRP community Some areas of interest: • Determine the predictive power of state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems (to be repeated periodically) • Further develop & test techniques for ensemble prediction of climate variability & change • Determine the scientific basis for, best approaches to, and current skill of projections of regional climate change • Develop well-tested climate-chemistry prediction & projection models & systems • …….. decadal prediction…

11. Areas of GEWEX Input to WCRP(from P. Lemke) • Global data sets: validation and intercomparison for improved products  model optimisation • Process understanding and parameterisation  GCMs • Cross-cutting: Precipitation (CliC, AOPC, WGOA) • Cross-cutting: atm. chemistry sea level rise monsoons • WCRP input into Global Water System Project

12. RECOMMENDED AREAS OF INCREASED WCRP MONSOON RESEARCH • BASED ON A WORKSHOP IN IRVINE CA IN JUNE 2005, WHERE MORE • THAN 50 EXPERTS FROM GEWEX AND CLIVAR MET TO DISCUSS RESEARCH • PRIORITIES,THE FOLLOWING RECOMMENDATIONS EMERGED: • THE SIMULATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE NEEDS TO BE IMPROVED. • COMPREHENSIVE MODELS OF THE SURFACE, PLANETARY • BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVECTION NEED TO BE DEVELOPED. • 3. THE INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION NEEDS TO BE UNDERSTOOD. • 4. THE IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION AND • TRANSPORT NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED. • 5. PROCESS AND MODELLING STUDIES ARE NEEDED FOR THE INDIAN • OCEAN AND THE MARITIME CONTINENT. • 6. SENSITIVITY STUDIES OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE NEEDED TO DETERMINE • THE OPTIMUM RESOLUTION FOR MODELLING THE MULTISCALE • PROCESSES THAT DOMINATE MONSOON SYSTEMS.

13. IN ORDER TO RESPOND TO THE REQUEST OF THE JSC FOR A COORDINATED CLIVAR/ GEWEX APPROACH TO MONSOONS THE RESULTS OF THIS WORKSHOP ARE BEING INCORPORATED INTO AN OVERALL WCRP MONSOON STRATEGY DOCUMENT. EARLY THINKING SUGGESTS THAT THE GOAL OF WCRP MONSOON ACTIVES SHOULD BE: “TO IMPROVE THE SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF MONSOONS THROUGH BETTER OBSERVATIONS, UNDERSTANDING AND MODELS.”

14. OVERALL GOAL: TO IMPROVE THE SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF MONSOONS THROUGH BETTER OBSERVATIONS, UNDERSTANDING AND MODELS GEWEX: GMPP, CSES CLIVAR: GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION REGIONAL MODELS ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF PROCESSES AND PHENOMENA GLOBAL MODELS CLIVAR, WGNE CEOP? CLIVAR GEWEX: GCSS, CSES SPECIALIZED REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS (GEWEX, CEOP) GEWEX: CSES, CEOP CLIVAR: OCEANS

15. DEVELOPMENT OF A GEWEX/CLIVAR MONSOON PLAN • INTRODUCTION • FRAMEWORK • OBSERVATIONS • UNDERSTANDING • A) PROCESSES • B) PHENOMENA • MODELS FOR SIMULATION AND PREDICTION • IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY • PROGRAMMATIC STRATEGIES

16. TIMETABLE • NOVEMBER 15 – DRAFT OF SOME INDIVIDUAL • SECTIONS • 2. NOVEMBER 30 - DRAFT OF THE ENTIRE DOCUMENT • 3. DECEMBER 15 – DRAFT FOR REVIEW BY GEWEX • AND CLIVAR COMMUNITIES • 4. JANUARY 10 – REVIEW AT THE GEWEX SSG • 5. JANUARY 15 – MAIL REVIEW BY THE CLIVAR SSG • 6. FEBRUARY 15 – SUBMISSION TO THE JSC

17. WHY GEWEX NEEDS A FOLLOW ON TO GAME (PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE) • APPROX. HALF OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION ARE AFFECTED • BY THE ASIAN MONSOON EACH YEAR. IT EITHER BRINGS PROSPERITY • OR CROP FAILURE; FLOOD HAZARD OR DROUGHT, ETC. • 2. CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE REGIONAL CLIMATE AND THE • CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE CHANGES ARE NOT FULLY • KNOWN. • 3, A CAPABILITY TO FORECAST THE ASIAN MONSOON INTENSITY AND • EXTENT AND ITS EFFECT WITH A 3 TO 12 MONTH LEAD TIME NEEDS • TO BE DEVELOPED. • 4. THE ROLE OF THE ASIAN MONSOON IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM • NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED, (E.G. IF THE MONSOON WEAKENS • WHAT HAPPENS TO GLOBAL PRECIPITATION PATTERNS?) • 5. A NUMBER OF PROCESS QUESTIONS RELATED TO MONSOONS AND THEIR • VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD.

18. PROPOSALS FOR THE MAHASRI PROJECT INCLUDE INDIA AS A MAJOR PARTNER BY INITIATING A SPECIFIC LAND COMPONENT OVER INDIA. INDIA CONTINENTAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE INDIAN OCEAN ARE UNIQUE AND NEED SPECIAL ATTENTION. INDIA IS ALSO A “HOT SPOT” FOR LAND INFLUENCES ON PREDICTABILITY AND WE DON’T KNOW WHY. INVOLVE AN OCEANGRAPHIC ELEMENT IN THE PLANNING SO THAT FIELD PROJECTS CAN BE IMPLEMENTED IN A FULLY COORDINATED WAY.

19. Large Scale Remote Forcing precipitation cloudiness D D N F2 soil D LW sfc ground temp moist convergence moisture D D D Hydrologic Cycle Energy cycle evaporation surface short wave D D SW sfc ENSURE THAT THE PLAN IDENTIFIES LINKS WITH GEWEX (AND COPES) OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES. THIS COULD BY DONE BY EMPHASIZING THE ROLE OF THE REGION AS A TEST BED FOR OTHER CSES AND OTHER PARTS OF GEWEX (AND BY STRENGTHENING THIS COMPONENT IN THE CURRENT DRAFT PLAN). THE CIMS PARADIGM FROM B. LAU BUILD UPON THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS AND INFRASTRUCTURE BEING DEVEOPED FOR CEOP. AT THE SAME TIME MAHASRI SHOULD HAVE ITS OWN IDENTITY.

20. COLLABORATE WITH NEESPI IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INITIATIVE SO THAT A COMPREHENSIVE COORDINATED EUROASIA SCIENCE PLAN CAN BE PURSUED IN THE CONTEXT OF ESSP. THE NEESPI STUDY AREA IN ADDITION TO SPECIFIC REGIONAL FOCI, IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO ADDRESS THE ENTIRE LAND AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON AREA AS A SINGLE ENTITY