PROMITHEAS-2 EU-BSEC Energy and Climate Policy Network

1. PROMITHEAS-2EU-BSEC Energy and Climate Policy Network International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference “Energy and Climate Change” October 8 – 9, 2009 Athens – Greece Anca Simona Bardici MSc. Eng.

2. International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference“Energy and Climate Change” “National projections of green house gases emissions by sources and their removal for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020” Authors:Ph.D. Anca Popescu – ISPE Bucharest MSc. Eng. Anca Simona Bardici – ISPE Bucharest

3. Content • Introduction • Description of methodologies, models, underlying assumptions and key input and output parameters • Hypothesis on macroeconomic indicators and on Energy activities • Analysis of the options for the development of the electricity production sector • Hypothesis on non-energy activities in industrial processes • Hypothesis on non-energy activities in Agriculture • Projections of the GHG emissions • Aggregated projections of GHG emissions • Conclusions

4. Introduction Romania’s current political outlook regarding environmental protection presents a proactive approach that is mainly shaped by the approximation of national policy to EU standards. The Romania’s Governmental Programme for the period 2009-2012 (adopted in December 2008) stipulates specific priorities for climate change mitigation and adoption of specific policies and measures in order to stabilize GHG emissions (promote the decrease of energy consumption through the use of efficient energy technologies, thermal insulation of residences and through sustaining the use of less polluting vehicles; promoting the cheap and clean energy production from renewable sources; identifying and implementing of feasible measures on carbon capture and storage).

5. Paper objective (1) • The main objective of this paper is the achievement of the green house gases emissions projections (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. • The projections were made for different socio-economical evolution scenarios and of technological evolution for achieving the environmental commitments of Romania. • The evolutions of GHG emissions has been established for: • Energy sector • Non energy sector

6. Paper objective (2) The following fields of activity have been analyzed in energy sector: • Energy supply from domestic and imports; • Energy conversion-refineries and coke factories. production of electricity and heat; • Energy consumers. For non-energy sector the following fields of activities have been analyzed : • Forestry as concerns atmospheric carbon sequestering options; • Agriculture as regards the evaluation of CH4 emissions resulting in animal digestion and the fermentation of animal dejections and N2O emissions subsequent to the application of nitrogen fertilizers; • Industry for the appraisal of emissions resulting in industrial processes; • Solvents and other products whose emissions have been determined in correlation with economic and technological evolution; • The management of wastes meant to assess CH4 and CO2 emissions.

7. Description of methodologies, models, underlying assumptions and key input and output parameters • The methodology for GHG projections calculation is similar to the one used for establishing the National Allocation Plan under the EU ETS. It relies both on historical data provided by the national GHG Inventory, for the period 1989 - 2006, and on macroeconomic indicators forecasts, indicators considered in the Romanian Government’s relevant strategies and for the socio- economic policies taking into consideration EU acquis communautaire. • The energy GHG projections were established considering the energy demand subsector (industry, transport, agriculture, household and commercial consumption) and the supplying sub-sector (primary energy resources extraction, their conversion in refineries, thermo-electric power plants, thermal power plants, transport and distribution of energy products to consumers). • The projections are based on calculations carried out using the ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program) programs package, developed by Argonne National laboratory of US Department of Energy (DOE) and distributed to Romania by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). • In order to allow the use of the modules package, a national energy balance has been prepared considering the available or imported primary energy resources. The main elements of the energy balance are: - primary energy resources; - primary energy resources conversion technologies; - energy products transport and distribution; - energy consumers classified according to the IPCC Guidelines.

8. ENPEP Programme

9. Description of emissions projections scenarios (1) The GHG emissions projections were prepared for three different scenarios: • the reference scenario, “business as usual” (BAU), possible to be realized in the future, which does not include distinct activities for GHG emissions mitigation; • the “with measures” scenario similar to the BAU scenario considering the evolution of the economic-social indicators, which comprises GHG emissions mitigation policies and programmes; • the “with additional measures” scenario similar to the “with measures” scenario, which comprises additional GHG emissions mitigation policies and programmes.

10. Description of emissions projections scenarios (2) • The base year for the analysis was considered 2006 because there are official data given by Romanian Statistical Yearbook related to Energy Balance and by Ministry of Environment related to National Inventory Report. • The data used in ENPEP packet program was adapted taken into consideration the statistical data of 2006

11. Macroeconomic and energy indicators of Romania for period 2000 - 2020

12. Analysis of the options for the development of the electricity production Evolution of installed power capacity in the period 2000 – 2007 (MW) Source: National Institute for Statistics – Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2008

13. Evolution of Romanian electricity sector in the period 2005 - 2020

14. The analyzed power plants development program options To establish the optimum power plants development program, the following scenarios were analyzed: • Scenario A - reference takes into account that all plants of all types (nuclear, thermal, hydro, and wind) are in free competition, without restrictions, the order of selection being the economic order allowing the consideration of the loading curve. • Scenario B is considering the use of new hydroelectric power groups in 2010 - 2020 totalizing an installed power of 217 MW, 472 MW, 1472 MW, the other candidate groups being in a free competition; • Scenario C is considering an imposed thermal power programme during 2010 - 2013 by installing groups with a power of 3100 MW (1200 MW gas-fired, 700 MW on lignite, 1200 MW on coal), the other candidate groups being in a free competition; • Scenario D takes into account new wind power plants with an installed power of 4000 MW in 2010 - 2017, the other groups being in a free competition; • Scenario E takes into account new installed thermal power groups to use domestic coal and lignite correlated with forecasted productions presented and hydro power groups of 472 MW during 2010 - 2020; • Scenario F takes into account in addition to the scenario E new installed wind power plants with an installed power of 4000 MW.

15. Hypothesis on non-energy activities in industrial processes • The assumptions in the industry sector are related to the evolution of the main industrial processes. Thus, the production parameters for cast-iron, steel, aluminum, other nonferrous metals, chemical fertilizers, other chemical products and cement represent essential elements that were analyzed for the establishment of GHG emissions projections. • Evolution of the main industrial processes is determined in accordance with the economic development of Romania. Levels of production for various industrial products for 2010 - 2020 are established in line with the period 2000 - 2006 and taking into account the various industries development prognosis. • The same production levels are considered for the alternative scenarios, but the focus is on improving the industry technology and replacing the inefficient technologies with modern ones. • It should be mentioned that the old technology is not expected to be replaced in the period 2009 - 2015. Thus, the production will be generated with the improved old technology. New capacities with modern technology are expected to be put into operation after 2015. Emissions from Solvents and Other Products Use have been determined in correlation with the economic and technological evolution.

16. Hypothesis on non-energy activities in agriculture • Romania has an agricultural area of about 14800 thou. ha out of which approximately 9400 thou. ha are arable area, cultivated with cereals and green crops. Table bellow presents the agricultural area trend for the “BAU” (reference) scenario, by land use, for the period 2001 - 2020.

17. Total CO2 emissions for theperiod 2010 - 2020

18. Total CH4 emissions for theperiod 2010 - 2020

19. Total N2O emissions for theperiod 2010 - 2020

20. Total F-gases emissions for theperiod 2010 - 2020

21. Total GHG emissions for theperiod 2010 - 2020

22. Total GHG emissions in 2006 EU-27 versus Romania

23. Conclusions • Both the National Greenhouse Gases Inventory and the GHG projections shows that the main source of GHG emissions (direct and indirect) is the fuel combustion. Therefore, the most important measure for the GHG mitigation is the efficient use of primary energy resources, promotion of renewable energy resources and safe nuclear technologies. • In 2006 the GHG emissions levels were 44% lower compared with the base year. In this respect the GHG emissions levels in the period 2008-2012 are expected to be lower than the Kyoto Protocol target. • The total EU-27 GHG emissions accounted 5142 Mt CO2 equivalent in 2006. The GHG emissions of Romania represented about 3% of the EU-27 GHG emissions in year 2006. • In the present economical and geopolitical context it is not possible to establish a sustainable energy development based exclusively on economic order of solutions and must adopt new criteriawhich can offer security of supply with energy resources and to be able to satisfayneeds of the electricity consumers.

24. Thank you for your attention! Anca Simona Bardici Institute for Studies and Power Engineering (ISPE) Energy and Environment Division 1-3 Lacul Tei Blvd. 020371 Bucharest Romania ph: + 4021 2061309 e-mail: anca.bardici@ispe.ro www.ispe.ro