Prospects for increased staple food production in Eastern and Southern Africa and implications for regional and global m

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Page 2. Outline. Background on staple crops in E

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Prospects for increased staple food production in Eastern and Southern Africa and implications for regional and global m

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1. Prospects for increased staple food production in Eastern and Southern Africa and implications for regional and global markets Nicholas Minot Markets, Trade, & Institutions Division

2. Page 2 Outline Background on staple crops in E & SA Prospects for increased staple crop production in region Impact on global and regional markets Conclusions and implications

3. Page 3 Background – Staples in the diet Staples account for about two-thirds of caloric intake Grains account for almost half Maize accounts for almost one-third Nine countries are: Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Tanzania Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique South Africa Weighted by volume of consumption, in simple average table, maize goes up to 33%, cassava goes up to 11%, and wheat goes down, reflecting smaller importance of Ethiopia in simple averageNine countries are: Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Tanzania Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique South Africa Weighted by volume of consumption, in simple average table, maize goes up to 33%, cassava goes up to 11%, and wheat goes down, reflecting smaller importance of Ethiopia in simple average

4. Page 4 Background – Importance of staples Maize most important in Malawi, Zambia, Kenya, SA, Zimbabwe Cassava most important in Mozambique Wheat relatively important in South Africa & Ethiopia Rice relatively important in Mozambique and Tanzania

5. Page 5 Background – Production trends Grain production characterized by Slow growth – 1.2% since 1970 but 2.1% since 1990 Shift – Growth in rice is higher (1.8%) & ‘other grains’ lower (0.8%) Volatility – CV is 16% overall but 30-40% for each crop in each country

6. Page 6 Background – Production trends South Africa dominates, but production is volatile Growth fastest in Ethiopia, Tanzania, & Mozambique (>2.9% since 1970) Growth negative or very low in most other Southern African countries Negative growth over 1970-2004 for Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe Slow growth for South AfricaNegative growth over 1970-2004 for Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe Slow growth for South Africa

7. Page 7 Background – Production trends Strong growth – 2.6% since 1970 and 3.6% since 1990 Fastest growth in Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia, & Zimbabwe Possible causes: decline in maize support & fertilizer subsidies and rural labor shortages

8. Page 8 Background – Production and net trade Maize from surplus (123% self suff in 1970s) to deficit (97%) in 2000-04 Maize trade does not smooth consumption (except 1991-92 drought) Wheat – shift from 93% self-sufficiency to 56% Rice – shift from 87% self-sufficiency to 67% Madagascar accounts for 51% of consumption and 70-80% of production for the 18-country region Without Madagascar, rice self-sufficiency has fallen from 63% in 1970s to 42% in 2000-2004Madagascar accounts for 51% of consumption and 70-80% of production for the 18-country region Without Madagascar, rice self-sufficiency has fallen from 63% in 1970s to 42% in 2000-2004

9. Page 9

10. Page 10 IMPACT projections - Alternative Scenarios Base scenario (“business as usual”) Current trends and existing plans for food policy, management, and investment continue over the projection period, including declining agricultural investments by international donors and national governments. Low scenario (“pessimistic”) Crop yield growth half of Base Scenario; GDP growth 25% below Base Scenario; population growth is UN “high variant;” and deterioration of social factors, such as female education, access to clean water, labor productivity. High scenario (“vision”) Crop yield growth twice that Base Scenario; GDP growth 8% per year; population growth is UN “low variant.”

11. Page 11 IMPACT projections – Staple production

12. Page 12 IMPACT projections – Net exports

13. Page 13 IMPACT projections – Child malnutrition

14. Page 14 Impact of increased African grain production – Impact depends on tradeability

15. Page 15 Impact of increased African grain production Over large range of world prices, no trade

16. Page 16 Impact of increased African grain production on global trade

17. Page 17 Impact of increased African grain production Net maize exports

18. Page 18 Impact of increased African grain production on regional maize trade

19. Page 19 Impact of increased African grain production Net wheat exports

20. Page 20 Impact of increased African grain production on regional wheat trade

21. Page 21 Impact of increased African grain production Net rice exports Madagascar accounts for 50% of rice consumption among 18 ESA countriesMadagascar accounts for 50% of rice consumption among 18 ESA countries

22. Page 22 Impact of increased African grain production on regional rice trade

23. Page 23 Impact of increased African grain production on regional trade

24. Page 24 Effect of long-term external trends

25. Page 25 Conclusions and implications

26. Page 26 Conclusions and implications

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