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S ustaining National Meteorological Services. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale , MD June 18, 2013. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on NWP. Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III. Forecast.

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s ustaining national meteorological services

Sustaining National Meteorological Services

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Weather Service

Riverdale, MD

June 18, 2013

slide3

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch

III

Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

  • NOS – OFS
  • Great Lakes
  • Northern Gulf of Mex
  • Columbia R.
  • Bays
  • Chesapeake
  • Tampa
  • Delaware

Climate Forecast

System

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

Coupled

GFSMOM4

NOAH Sea Ice

Sea Nettle

Forecast

~2B Obs/Day

Satellites + Radar

99.9%

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Regional NAM

WRF NMMB

Regional

DA

Global

Forecast

System

Global Data

Assimilation

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

Space

Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Regional DA

WRF: ARW, NMM

NMMB

Air Quality

GFS, Canadian Global Model

ENLIL

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Refresh

for Aviation

3

NOAH Land Surface Model

slide5

Distributing NWS Operational Model Data:

NOMADS Capabilities

  • NOMADS – NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System
    • real-time and retrospective, format-independent access to climate and weather model data
  • A Unified Access Framework approach that engages data providers and users and has a high probability of demonstrable successes
  • Digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models
  • Readily provides access to domestic and international users of NWS operational models on a “come and get it” basis.
slide6

Major Challenges to NOMADS

  • Increasing model resolution will require larger NOMADS capabilities
  • Increasing number of users accessing model output from around the world will require more rapid response capabilities
slide7

An Example of the Model Resolution Increase

  • Run NWS Global Forecast Systems at higher resolution out to 10 days
  • High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
    • 3 kilometer resolution
    • Runs every hour
  • Ensembles: Higher Resolutions
    • Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (going from 55km to 21km)
    • Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) (going from 16 km to 12 km)
    • Hurricane Models (to be run at 3km)
    • Accelerate Storm Surge Modeling for NY, NJ, and New England
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