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World commodity prices 2004 - 2005. AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004. Commodity markets are thriving and prices are soaring…. …as activity and trade recover. Latest market developments. Surge in raw materials prices…

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World commodity prices 2004 2005

World commodity prices2004 - 2005

AIECE Spring Meeting

Kiel, May 6 2004





As activity and trade recover
…as activity and trade recover

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Latest market developments
Latest market developments

  • Surge in raw materials prices…

    • HWWA overall index up 72% between December 2001 (latest trough) and April 2004

    • Industrial commodities and foodstuffs have surged more than energy prices

  • …due to the Chinese “heat wave”…

    • China, the world’s workshop, was in 2003 the world’s largest consumer of

      • coal, absorbing 40% of total world production

      • steel and nickel, absorbing 25% of total world production

      • aluminium, absorbing 19% of total world production

    • as natural resources become scarcer or uncompetitive in China

  • …highlighting capacity constraints worldwide

    • Lack of investment in basic industries: overinvestment in ICT to the expense of basic industries

    • Prices of raw materials were until recently quite low on an historical perspective, too low to boost investment

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Where china matters example of coal prices
Where China mattersExample of coal prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Where china matters example of nickel prices
Where China mattersExample of nickel prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Prices of r aw industrial materials on a longer term perspective
Prices of raw industrial materials on a longer term perspective

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts
AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

  • Factors which could push raw material prices down

    • In Europe: strong euro

    • Seasonnal factors (agricultural commodities)

  • Factors sustaining raw material prices

    • Strong growth expected in industrial demand in Asia, with China more and more decisive for prices

    • Supply deficit even on markets believed to be structurally in excess supply (steel for example)

    • Investment from pension funds away from bourses to commodity markets (speculation on the London Metal Exchange)

The environment for European raw materials purchasers has deteriorated sensibly, despite a strong euro; no significant downturn is expected in prices before 2006.

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts1
AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts2
AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts3
AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts aggregate prices
AIECE Commodity Group forecastsAggregate prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts energy prices
AIECE Commodity Group forecastsEnergy prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts non ferrous metals prices
AIECE Commodity Group forecastsNon-ferrous metals prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts ferrous metals prices
AIECE Commodity Group forecastsFerrous metals prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts agricultural prices
AIECE Commodity Group forecastsAgricultural prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


Aiece commodity group forecasts food and beverages prices
AIECE Commodity Group forecastsFood and beverages prices

AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004


World commodity prices 2004 20051

World commodity prices2004 - 2005

AIECE Spring Meeting

Kiel, May 6 2004


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