Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework
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Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil Wheeler, and Lyle Chinkin Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, California Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon, Tara Strand U.S. Forest Service AirFIRE Team

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Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

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Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil Wheeler, and Lyle Chinkin

Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, California

Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon, Tara Strand

U.S. Forest Service AirFIRE Team

Thompson Pace

U.S. EPA OAQPS

Presented at the

7th Annual Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Conference

Chapel Hill, North Carolina

October 7, 2008

STI-3457


Background

Background

  • NASA Decision Support

  • NASA-STI-USFS Partnership

  • SMARTFIRE* – Fire Information

  • BlueSky Framework – Fuels, Consumption, and Emissions

  • EPA Work Assignment

  • Emission Inventory for Wildland Fires

  • * Satellite Mapping Automatic Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation


Emission inventory processing

Emission Inventory Processing

  • Scope

    • Contiguous United States

    • August 2002 through 2006

    • Wildfires, Wildfire Use, prescribed burning

    • Agricultural burning excluded

  • BlueSky Pathway

    • Fire information: SMARTFIRE

    • Fuel loading: FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System)

    • Fuel consumption: Consume 3.0

    • Emissions: FEPS (Fire Emission Production Simulator)


Bluesky pathway

BlueSky Framework 3.0

Total Consumption

FireInformation

TimeRate

Emissions

PlumeRise

Dispersion /

Trajectories

Fuels

BlueSky Pathway

ICS-209

SMARTFIRE

Other

Rx Sys

FCCS

NFDRS

Hardy

LANDFIREAg

Other

CONSUME 3

FEPS

FOFEM

ClearSky (Ag)Satellite

Other

FEPSWRAP

FOFEM

Rx / WF

IdealizedManualOther

EPM

FEPSFOFEM

Literature

Other

Briggs

FEPS

WRAP

Multi-coreDaysmoke

Other

CALPUFF

CMAQ

HYSPLIT


Data sources

Data Sources

  • ICS-209 reports: AirFIRE, Fire and Aviation Management Web Applications (FAMWEB) web site, and Tom Pace

  • HMS fire detects: NOAA Hazard Mapping System (Mark Ruminski)

  • MODIS* fire detects: USFS Remote Sensing Applications Center (used to fill gaps in HMS data)

  • Fuel moisture: USFS Wildland Fire Assessment System

  • * Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer


Annual pm 2 5 primary emissions

Annual PM2.5 Primary Emissions

Annual Total

2003

1.28

2004

0.90

2005

1.10

2006

1.67

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

PM

(million tons)

2.5

(2003 - 2006, Lower 48 States)

Monthly Totals

400

350

2003

2004

2005

2006

300

(ktons)

250

200

2.5

PM

150

100

50

0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

May


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

Annual Average PM2.5 Wildland Fire Emission Density(2003 – 2006)


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

Average Monthly Wildland Fire PM2.5 Emissions

(2003-2006)

Month


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

250

35

2002

Area

PM2.5

250

35

30

2003

Area

PM2.5

200

30

25

200

Area (thousand acres)

150

25

20

Area (thousand acres)

PM2.5 (ktons)

150

20

PM2.5 (ktons)

15

100

15

10

100

50

10

5

50

5

0

0

0

0

1/1

2/1

3/3

4/3

5/4

6/4

7/5

8/5

9/5

10/6

11/6

12/7

1/1

2/1

3/4

4/4

5/5

6/5

7/6

8/6

9/6

10/7

11/7

12/8

250

35

2004

Area

PM2.5

30

200

25

Area (thousand acres)

150

20

PM2.5 (ktons)

15

100

10

50

5

0

0

1/1

2/1

3/3

4/3

5/4

6/4

7/5

8/5

9/5

10/6

11/6

12/7

250

35

2005

Area

PM2.5

30

200

25

Area (thousand acres)

150

20

PM2.5 (ktons)

15

100

10

50

5

0

0

1/1

2/1

3/4

4/4

5/5

6/5

7/6

8/6

9/6

10/7

11/7

12/8

250

35

2006

Area

PM2.5

30

200

Area (thousand acres)

25

150

20

PM2.5 (ktons)

15

100

10

50

5

0

0

1/1

2/1

3/4

4/4

5/5

6/5

7/6

8/6

9/6

10/7

11/7

12/8

Area Burned vs. PM2.5 Emissions


Effect of different fire information sources

Effect of Different Fire Information Sources

300

y = 104x

250

2

R

= 0.66

  • MODIS Terra and Aqua only

    • This is the most commonly used satellite-derived fire data set

    • We developed acres burned per pixel relationship by examining 30 wildfires

    • Used 100 acres per pixel

200

Acres Burned (Thousands)

150

100

50

0

0

1000

2000

3000

Pixel Count

  • ICS-209s only

    • This was BlueSky’s previous data feed.

    • ICS-209s report cumulative area burned.

    • We subtracted the previous day’s area from today’s to get the daily area burned


Smartfire vs modis vs ics 209 area burned

SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209Area Burned


Differences between modis and hms

Differences Between MODIS and HMS

  • Because HMS includes GOES and AVHRR derived fire pixels in addition to MODIS, it detects more fires overall.

  • This is especially true in the southeast, where fires are often small and/or short lived.

  • In addition to the increased coverage, HMS provides human quality control.


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

200

150

Million Tons

100

50

0

Yearly Totals

ICS-209

MODIS

SMARTFIRE

14

12

Area Burned

10

Million Acres

8

Area Burned

6

4

2

0

Fuel Consumed

MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the other two.

Why?

MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the other two.

Why?

2.0

Fuel Consumed

1.5

PM2.5 Emitted

Million Tons

1.0

0.5

0.0

2003

2004

2005

2006


Smartfire vs modis vs ics 209 pm 2 5 emissions

SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 PM2.5 Emissions


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

Aspen Fire, Arizona – 2003


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

14

PM2.5 Emitted - Aspen Fire, Arizona

ICS209

12

SMARTFIRE

10

Hundred Tons

8

6

4

2

0

6/17

6/20

6/23

6/26

6/29

7/2

7/5

7/8

7/11

Aspen Fire – Acres Burned vs. Emissions

Total

14

Helicopter 84,733

Acres Burned - Aspen Fire, Arizona

ICS209

12

ICS-209 84,750

SMARTFIRE

10

SMARTFIRE 80,896

8

Thousand Acres

6

4

2

0

6/17

6/20

6/23

6/26

6/29

7/2

7/5

7/8

7/11

Total

ICS-209 8,281

SMARTFIRE 3,659


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

B & B Complex, Oregon – 2003


Development of wildland fire emission inventories with the bluesky smoke modeling framework

Total

B & B Complex, Oregon – 2003

ICS-209

Helicopter 90,800

MODIS

30

SMARTFIRE

ICS-209 91,500

Acres Burned - B&B Complex, Oregon

25

MODIS189,800

20

SMARTFIRE 117,100

15

Thousand Acres

10

5

0

9/13

8/19

8/24

8/29

9/3

9/8

Total

ICS-209 10,700

MODIS73,100

SMARTFIRE 44,200


Future work

Future Work

  • Continued validation and improvement of fire size parameters

  • Further exploration of high consumption rate when using MODIS

  • Differences with high resolution fuel loading data (LANDFIRE)

    • 30-m spatial resolution is finer scale than the satellite fire information

    • Will use helicopter-flown perimeters or high resolution satellite burn scars to determine area burned

  • Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP)


Acknowledgments

Acknowledgments

Funding from National Fire Plan, USFS, Joint Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and NASA ROSES DSS

Our many collaborators and partners

Tom Pace (EPA)

Amber Soja (NIA)

Mark Ruminski and John Simko (NOAA NESDIS)

Roger Ottmar and Susan Pritchard (USFS-FERA)

Thank you!

Information: www.getBlueSky.org

Contact: [email protected]


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