MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Lecture-8

1. MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Lecture-8 The International Climate Outlook Forum Program & Stakeholders of Climate Information

2. Outline Regional Climate Outlook Forum Program (international climate prediction system) Agriculture sector Disaster risk reduction sector

3. Regional Climate Prediction Program A Worldwide Regional Prediction Process(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/RCOFReview2008.html)

4. Birth of RCOFs Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) were initiated at a Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa in October 1996 at Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe – Chair Fredrick Semazzi The first RCOF was organized for the South African Region (SARCOF) in September 1997

5. WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) Serve over 3 billion people. Regional Climate Centers Serve the Great Demand for Skillful Prediction Climate Prediction • AFRICAN COFS • GHACOF: Greater Horn of Africa COF • SARCOF: Southern Africa COF • PRESAO: Western Africa • COFPRESAC: Central Africa CO • REST OF THE THE WORLD • FOCRAII: Forum on regional Climate monitoring, assessment and prediction for Regional Association II (Asia) • SSACOF: Southeast of South America COF • WCSACOF: Western Coast of South America COF • CCOF: Caribbean COF • FCCA: Foro Regional del Clima de América Central • PICOF: Pacific Islands COF • SEECOF: SouthEastern Europe COF

6. A training workshop on seasonal climate prediction to strengthen the capacity of the national and regional climate scientists; • Regional and international climate experts meet & develop a consensus for the regional climate outlook using national, regional and global information, typically in a probabilistic form; • The Forum proper, involves climate scientists, representatives from the user sectors & the media, for identification of impacts and implications, and the formulation of response & effective communicationsstrategies; WorldwideRCOF Process

7. NEACC BCC TCC ACMAD ICPAC CIIFEN SADC-CSC Designated RCCs Pilot RCCs Pilot RCC Networks Pilot RCCs by 2012 Pilot RCC Networks by 2012 Pilot RCCs in development GFCS RCCs

8. Seasonal Forecast Development A seasonal forecast is developed at national level mainly using empirical statistical Techniques and lately CPT. The forecast generated in a form on national consensus since various scientists use different approached and present results in a national Conference. The scientists participating in COFs go with the obtained forecast for updating and fine-tuning.

9. Seasonal Forecast DevelopmentDownscaling • Downscaling of the COF Forecast is done immediately after the scientists return from the COF meetings A statement to the public is developed including: • A review and projection of expected climate systems • Seasonal outlook –Rainfall • An advisory ( expected impacts) to major user sector A Press Conference involving climate scientists, key stakeholders and the media is convened where the forecast and its implications are discussed detail before being disseminated to the public and other users

10. ICPAC and SADC OND 2008 map and downscaled one

11. WEATHER HAZARDS AND DISASTERS IN THE REGION Floods Strong winds Thunderstorms - L.Victoria Feb 1993 Feb 2000 Depletion of snow-cape Over Mt Kilimanjaro 2005 drought impact

12. Products and dissemination Process • Products • Seasonal outlook • Weather/climate forecasts (Daily, Dekadal and monthly • Agro-meteorological bulletins (dekadal and monthly bulletins

13. Products and dissemination Process • Dissemination Process • Media:Television, Newspaper, Radio • Websites • Internet • Post • Various national exhibitions • National Met Stations • RANET (Radio Internet)

14. ACHIEVEMENTS • Capacity building workshops • Outcomes of the fora • (i) Have contributed to improvement of capabilities in the Agency and the country at large (ii) The quality of seasonal outlooks has improved; (iii) Started undertaking forecast verification (iv) Dissemination of climate information for early warning and disaster preparedness and to other users has been improved enormously.

15. ACHIEVEMENTS cont’d • Interaction with Stakeholders/Users through workshops running in-parallel with climate capacity building workshops remarkably enhanced importance of these fora and their outcomes for planning purposes. • Increased number of stakeholders such as food security dept, agriculture, health, water, construction, natural resources, media, natural disaster management etc); • Improved working tools including computers and relevant software acquired from the Government and donor community as a result of increased number of trained scientists from COFs • Improved climate data bank; • Currently, TMA scientists are able to develop country’s seasonal forecast which become handy when preparing consensus outlooks at regional climate outlook for a. • Improved down-scaled seasonal forecasts;

16. Challenges • Inadequate trainers and ICT personnel at some of the climate centres • Difficulties in accessibility of data for seasonal updates from various sources • Substantial expansion in the number of user sectors demand for specific/certain types of climate information • Timely dissemination of weather and climate information to the rural community is another challenge bearing in mind that communication to this most needful community is a problem. • Conveyance of weather information effectively to general public

17. Recommendations • To strengthen capacity at Climate Prediction Centres in terms of scientific personnel and computing power; • To ensure availability of SST data at good lead time in all Global Oceans • To improve availability of SST data in the Indian Ocean • To update Climlab2000 to year 2008. • Need for improved downscaling Techniques • Need for dynamical modeling/downscaling at regional and national level • The need for a stronger Media – NMSs alliance:

18. Agriculture Sector

19. Qn1: What do the Agric User Community need from the climate community (ICPAC, National Mets and WMO) • We need accurate forecasts/predictions indicating: • Expected onsets • Expected cessation dates • Rainfall distribution (in time and space) • Temperature information (i.e. frost and heat waves) • Future climatic scenarios and trends • Higher spatial resolution for daily, five-day and 10 day forecasts for all Mets • Mainstream and improve forecast dissemination by using the right channels that reach users • Provide long range forecasts and climate related scenarios culminating from climate variability

20. Cont’d • Sensitise communities on how to interpret weather forecasts for effective utilisation • Establishment of user Multi-Stakeholder Platforms and institutionalizing them at all levels (regional, national & local levels) for effective use of forecast information • Support interpretation of forecasts, and the development & dissemination of downscaled climate information to the user communities • Capacity building for policy makers to understand the forecast process and the importance of climate information

21. Qn2: What can users provide to the climate community • Provide feedback on experiences and impacts of climate from our sectors • Collect and provide voluntary observations (esp. rainfall, temp.) at local level if given relevant equipment • Provide feedback on the performance of the previous forecast (COF products) • Provide information about vulnerability thresholds

22. Qn3: Why have we not been using climate information as was expected • Limited access to info: The current major channels of dissemination of climate information (internet, TV, Newspaper) are not adequate to reach the majority of grass root users • There are very weak agro-meteorological extension services in the region • Because users are not aware of the uncertainties underlying the forecasts, & because sometimes the information turns out not to be accurate, farmers do not have the confidence to continue using climate forecast information • Some policies on data sharing also limit usage

23. Qn4: Suggest how differently the COF Products could be improved to support the Agric & FS Sector • Conduct early COFs so as to allow enough time for the NMHS to provide downscaled information to users on time (e.g. 3 or more weeks time) • This ensures timely panning and implementation • The climate community should be encouraged to have more interaction with the information users including the policy makers • Provide definitions and/or meanings for the technical terms used; also provide additional information to accompany the forecasts (e.g. analog statistics)

24. Recommended policy strategies • Climate community should regularly conduct impact studies; needs assessments; tracking dissemination and use of climate information products; and capture any other related feedback from the users • GHACOF to attempt to conduct case studies on long range forecasts and provide relevant future climatic scenarios e.g. future climate changes & the anticipated impacts • GHACOF to be done 3 or more weeks before onset of the season

25. Agronomically relevant climate information • All NMHS to provide timely information on: • Expected onsets • Expected cessation dates • Rainfall amounts and distribution (in time and space) • Brief on the potential anticipated hazards and associated impacts (both –ve and +ve) • Information on temperature including frost and heat waves • A general advisory on how to use the climate information profitably

26. Agronomically …. Cont’d • Provide timely early warning messages and pre-disaster assessment scenarios • Report promptly any observed deviation from the predicted or anticipated scenario, e.g. unforeseen dry spells

27. Disaster Risk Reduction Sector

28. How have COF products been useful? Benefits • Facilitated preparedness activities • Improved planning for interventions • Improved networking • Links with the climate scientists • Links with other stakeholders (users) • Built professional capacity of disaster managers in climate risk issues – better understanding of climate issues and hence better response

29. Challenges • Products are tailored for the elite of the society rather than the local community members whose literacy levels are low • Infrastructure to support dissemination to local community users • Mobile phone coverage • Electricity • Radios, e.t.c • Governments are passive users – other players take lead

30. Have subsequent COF products enhanced your sector performance? • Development of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme in Western Kenya - Community based flood mitigation project to address Budalang’i flood project • The creation of National Drought Management Authority to address the issues of draught, especially in ASALS • Collaboration between Uganda OPM’s Office and MTN – information dissemination • Met Dept disseminating the climate outlook to lower structures and inter-departmental

31. Improvement of COF productsHow are things going to be done differently? • Integrated Approach and multi-sectoral outlook • M/E framework to track change • Increase and enhance accuracy • Match the COF map with hazard, risk and vulnerability maps – integrating the products with hazard maps • Downscaling • Local applications • Sector specific • Develop innovative and creative means of dissemination • School children • Community facilitators • Organizations working with communities, e.g. the Red Cross • Drama • Have the COF map in digital format (GIS-ready)

32. 2013 Forecast • Normal to above normal areas • Awareness creation of impending heavy rains • Planting season • Land preparation • Link up with agriculture experts to recommend seeds for the season • Seed and fertilizer provision • Digging trenches • Prepositioning food and emergency stocks • Relocate people in low-lying flood-prone areas • Map out hot spot areas • Preposition medicine for water-borne diseases

33. Normal to below Normal areas • Awareness raising • Prepositioning relief items • Water trucking • Advocate for alternative livelihoods • Initiate livestock off-take programmes(De-stocking) • Drill emergency boreholes • Intensify disease surveillance and vaccination programmes • Lay grounds for resource-based conflict management • Alternative energy sources • Allocate enough financial resources for possible drought intervention • Development of evacuation plans • Insurance payout where available • Water harvesting • Micro-irrigation