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A GLOBAL OVERVIEW

THREAT. A GLOBAL OVERVIEW. UNCLASSIFIED # Cover Sheet. Global Threat: References. Global Threat, Statement for the Record Senate Armed Services Committee, 11 February 2003 HTTP://www.fas.org , Federation of American Scientists

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A GLOBAL OVERVIEW

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  1. THREAT A GLOBAL OVERVIEW UNCLASSIFIED # Cover Sheet

  2. Global Threat: References • Global Threat, Statement for the Record Senate Armed Services Committee, 11 February 2003 • HTTP://www.fas.org, Federation of American Scientists • Terrorism, the Future, and U.S. Foreign Policy, Issue Brief for Congress, 8 January 2003 UNCLASSIFIED #2

  3. Near Term Priorities • Global Terrorism - Most immediate concern to U.S. interests at home or abroad - Many terrorist groups have the capabilities of doing us harm UNCLASSIFIED #3

  4. 1. Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) 2. Abu Sayyaf Group 3. Armed Islamic Group (GIA) 4. Aum Shinrikyo 5. Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA) 6. Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group) 7. HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement) 8. Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM) 9. Hizballah (Party of God) 10. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) 11. al-Jihad (Egyptian Islamic Jihad) 12. Kahane Chai (Kach) 13. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 14. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 15. Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK) 16. National Liberation Army (ELN) 17. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) 18. Palestine Liberation Front (PLF) 19. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) 20. PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC) 21. al-Qa'ida 22. Real IRA 23. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 24. Revolutionary Nuclei (formerly ELA) 25. Revolutionary Organization 17 November 26. Revolutionary People's Liberation Army/Front (DHKP/C) 27. Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL) 28. United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) Current List of Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (As of October 5, 2001) UNCLASSIFIED #3

  5. Al Qaida • Retains presence on six continents • Draws support from legitimate and illegitimate organizations • Network is adaptive, flexible, and more agile than us • Look for future attacks in Europe • Are actively seeking WMD and RDD UNCLASSIFIED #3

  6. Iraq • Attack Kurds in North • Attack Israel and regional states • “Energize” Arab countries • Employ scorched earth policy, destroying infrastructures and using WMD UNCLASSIFIED #3

  7. North Korea • Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons reflect long term strategic goal -income derived from weapons exports -two stage Taepo-Dong 2 missile could target U.S. with nuclear payload • Significant conventional military (infantry, armor, artillery, WMD) forebear a violent, destructive war with little or no warning UNCLASSIFIED #3

  8. Global Realities • These realities are enduring and foster hatred against west: - reaction to U.S. dominance - globalization - uneven economic and demographic growth - general technology proliferation - WMD proliferation

  9. Global Realities (cont.) -declining global defense spending - international crime -increasing number of people in need UNCLASSIFIED #3

  10. Reaction to U.S. Dominance • Many are concerned about expansion, consolidation, and dominance of American values, ideals, culture, and institutions • Fear of losing cultural identity • Fear of U.S. unilateralism UNCLASSIFIED #3

  11. Globalization • Globalization is the increasing flow of money, goods, services, people, information, technology, and ideas • It can be positive • It can leave large numbers of people worse off and open for influence by subversive organizations UNCLASSIFIED #3

  12. Uneven Economic and Demographic Growth • The world will add another billion people in 10-15 years, 95% in developing nations • 20-30 million of poorest migrate to cities • Cities will be unable to keep up with increase • Resulting instability will increase power on dangerous non-state entities UNCLASSIFIED #3

  13. General Technology Proliferation • New vulnerabilities, interdependencies, and capabilities are being created in advanced and less developed states • The integration of various advancements and application of emerging technology makes it difficult to predict the fututre UNCLASSIFIED #3

  14. Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Proliferation • States seek these for regional security and to deter U.S. superiority • Globalization provides technology and materials to acquire • New alliances have formed UNCLASSIFIED #3

  15. Declining Global Defense Spending • Global defense spending has dropped 50% in the past decade. • Adversaries and allies will not keep pace with the U.S. • Foes driven to asymmetric options • Technology transfers and embargoes will be more difficult to control UNCLASSIFIED #3

  16. International Crime • Criminal groups around the world are broadening their activities in narcotics trafficking, alien smuggling, and illegal arms trading • These groups can fund terrorism and use their networks to assist terrorists UNCLASSIFIED #3

  17. Regional Issues: Israel and Palestine • Conflict is furthering anti-American sentiment • Increasing pressure on moderate Middle East countries • No end likely in near future UNCLASSIFIED #3

  18. Regional Issues: Pakistan and India • Islamabad and Dehli has taken steps to defuse • Tensions are still high, • Both sides retain large forces and continue WMD and missile programs UNCLASSIFIED #3

  19. Regional Issues: Muslim World • Pakistan • Afghanistan • Indonesia • Egypt • Jordan • Saudi Arabia • Turkey UNCLASSIFIED #3

  20. Other Actors:Iran • Iran is pursuing fissile material. It will have a nuclear weapon within the decade • It has biological warfare program and dual use equipment. It maintains a stockpile of chemical weapons • Large missile force • Navy is most capable in region UNCLASSIFIED #3

  21. Other Actors:Russia • Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism, and muted reaction to NATO expansion is reassuring. • Concern remains on proliferation of WMD security of its nuclear weapons, and expanding criminal syndicates. UNCLASSIFIED #3

  22. Other Actors:China • Chinese military spending will continue growing • Modernizing missile forces • PLA is acquiring high-tech arms and emphasizing professionalism of officer corps UNCLASSIFIED #3

  23. THE THREAT-Conclusion • Just as our enemies are developing new ways to attack us, we must address the entire threat spectrum. Not only the traditional threats but emerging threats as well UNCLASSIFIED #25

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