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Russia -2020: Technological Modernization. XI International Economic Forum in Peterburg. 2007. ЦМАКП. A new stage of development. Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth .

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2007

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2007

Russia-2020: Technological Modernization

XI International Economic Forum in Peterburg

2007


2007

ЦМАКП

A new stage of development

  • Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth.

  • Oil “windfall profit”-based growth opportunities present today are obviously exhausted in the mid-term perspective

  • In addition, new critical long-term challenges arise:

  • demography – labor scarceness and ageing population lead to a к быстрому росту пенсионной нагрузки. There is also a range of migration challenges;

  • technology – a start of a new technology age in developed countries.

2


2007

ЦМАКП

Challenges and limitations on growth perspectives

Energy:

  • More capital-intensive extraction meansless return on prospective investments;

  • A rise in demand for edge-cutting technologies as resource extraction is harder in new fields/deposits.

Shipping:

  • Competition wth China (TRACECA is almost complete, 300-400 km left);

  • конфликт с другими направлениями использования опорной транспортной сети (Транссиб);

Hi-tech capabilities:

  • Insufficient focus on top research priorities;

  • Lack of adequate researchers in some areas;

  • Lack of shared vision of technological development by government, business and research society. Widening rift between fundamental and applied science, and between demand from business and applied science

  • Need for venture institutions supporting large projects;

  • Distorted motivation for business innovations

3


2007

ЦМАКП

  • Technological modernization is a key :

  • realizing competitive advantages in science and technology

  • mass industry modernization

Research potential

  • Russia is among top 15 research spenders (PPP-based);

  • Russia is the third on number employed in science after U.S. and China по численности занятых в этой сфере;

  • Russian science retained ability to conduct contemporary research in wide range of areas

4


2007

ЦМАКП

The scope of research potential

Domestic R&D spending (PPP-based USD bn, 2004)

R&D employment (thousands, 2004)

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2007

ЦМАКП

Research potential: resource concentration

R&D spending on a person employed (PPP USD ‘000, 2004)

6


2007

ЦМАКП

Research potential: cost and result

Hi-tech exports and R&D spending (as % of GDP, 2001)

Loss from cost-result disparity in innovations is estimated at 23-25 USD bn. per year.

Unrealized technology export gains account for 22-24 USD bn. per year, while undervalued exports account for another 1 USD bn.

7


2007

ЦМАКП

Research potential: goals for Russia

  • To secure developed markets position:

  • products should conform to quality and technology standards;

  • customer needs should be a priority;

  • life-long service and maintenance for production.

  • 2. To provide sustainable growth

  • 3-5% yearly energy intensity decrease;

  • 6-7% yearly labor productivity increase;

  • energy industry development measures – new APP development, extraction under unfavorable natural conditions; gas transit from arctic zone.

  • 3. To realize national technological achievements and advantages:

  • aerospace industry (WIG craft, supersonic passenger aircraft, гиперзвуковые ЛА);

  • nuclear energy (fast neutron reactors)

8


2007

ЦМАКП

Research potential: internal goals

Required efficiency growth (%)

9


2007

ЦМАКП

Research potential: development strategies

  • Catching-up scenario

  • Provide the needs of business, energy industry and national defense with minimum risk:

  • intensive research on a limited scope of technologies needed by energy industry and Ministry of Defense;

  • development of innovation system to select and adapt imported technologies.

  • 2. Local leadership scenario

  • Emergence of a strong national R&D system. Active participation in hi-tech markets based on technological advantages:

  • edge-cutting technological achievements realizing competitive advantage in research and emergence of new markets;

  • launching global projects lead by Russian enterprises;

  • developing R&D institutions to match ongoing R&D to business demand.

10


2007

ЦМАКП

National competitiveness

New R&D policy

  • Combining institutional and project approach

  • new technology monitoring system;

  • shared vision of future developments by business and government (technology foresight);

  • focus on a limited number of breakthrough projects with sizeable system impact;

  • forming national innovation infrastructure. Institutionalization of technology market, including intellectual property protection;

  • providing incentives for hi-tech upgrade of the industry.

11


2007

ЦМАКП

Research potential: probable impact from implementation

Capabilities for increasing export of machines and equipment(USD bn)

12


2007

ЦМАКП

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