Quality Assessment and NEVS for NextGen

1. Quality Assessment and NEVS for NextGen Jennifer Mahoney NOAA/ESRL/GSD Interagency Aviation Meeting 2 Dec 2010

2. Outline NextGen needs for forecast quality information Concepts in a user context NEVS – Delivery infrastructure Summary

3. NextGen Weather Integration Concept(Weather Integration Plan V1.0)

4. NextGen Weather Performance Needs • Advanced assessment techniques and metrics • Integrated with key operational decision criteria • Provided in the context of the FAA operational user • A net-enabled framework that allows effective and timely distribution of automated quality assessment information to NextGen users

5. NEVS in NextGen Weather Integration Other Services Translation of Wea Aviation Operations Weather Translation for ATM Decision Support Translation of Weather for use in Aviation Operations 4D Wx SAS Performance Feedback NOAA Forecast Process Performance Feedback NEVS Quality of Wx Quality of Translated Wx Information Exchange

6. Concepts With a User-specific Focus

7. Roles for Quality Metrics Meteor WAF Mincut Delay

8. Forecast Accuracy Variations Summer • Summary Statistics • Seasonal and regional variations • Traditional point of view Winter

9. Forecast Value to Planning Processes Lower Risk Risk Assessment Planning Efficiency Higher Risk Less Efficient More Efficient Operational Criteria Operational Criteria

10. Sector Impact Measures 21 Aug 2009; 1500 UTC, 6h lead

11. NEVS For Effective Delivery of Information

12. NEVS Prototype 2010

14. NEVS Services

15. NEVS Synthesis Input Service

16. NEVS Synthesis Service FCAA05 +20 min +10 min 0 min -10 min +20 min +10 min 0 min -10 min FCAA08 IMPROVED Forecast Estimates of AFP Airspace Availability Forecast Synthesis Forecast Weather CoSPA CCFP LAMP WAF Forecast Synthesis Algorithm ATM DST NCWD Weather Avoidance Field (WAF) 35 kft Build historical performance for forecasts NEVS provides scenario-specific synthesis input Decision support criteria is provided to NEVS Pilot Deviation Prob

17. Weather Synthesis8/21 15Z 6-h lead

18. NEVS Decision Matrix

19. Synthesis Input NEVS– Network Enabled Verification Service Forecast B Forecast A Synthesized A & B Verification Metrics

20. NEVS Alert Service

21. NEVS Alert Service Forecast weather Tolerance Thresholds defined by user Actual weather Plan is created at t=0 for 6 hr Planning period Alert when actual weather exceeds thresholds Ongoing monitoring of weather

22. Summary • NextGen Needs: • User-specific Concepts • Effective net-enabled delivery of the quality information to forecast and planning processes • GSD is: • Building and testing concepts • Developing NEVS as an information delivery infrastructure

23. Questions

24. NEVS Prototype Sector maps of CoSPA, CCFP, and CIWS analysis along with verification statistics

25. NEVS Prototype Detailed view of verification statistics

26. NEVS Prototype Detailed view of ingest status

27. Planning Point Capacity Plot Cessation Onset % Blockage as derived from Mincut Bottleneck Technique

28. Jetway Hazard Corridor Mincut Bottleneck Technique Sector Bottleneck Blockage Potential 0.5

29. QUESTIONS?

30. Why Weather Performance Information is Different • Therefore, to develop and produce performance information continually, • A mechanism for managing data is required • Integrating operational criteria with performance information is critical • Distribution of the performance information when needed is vital

31. Why Weather Performance Information is Different Forecast Data • Weather forecast data valid short period of time and then replaced with next forecast • Performance information requires the entire history of forecast data for computing the metrics Performance metrics computed using historical archive of forecast data

32. Working Assumption • NextGen requires an integrated approach for diagnostic monitoring and automated evaluation of weather information (both realtime and historic) for effective air traffic management