Chapter 2 current performance and future potential
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Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential. Shiro Armstrong 29 April workshop. Outline. How does Myanmar measure up against comparable economies? Trade and investment potential Achievable trade and growth scenarios Challenge for national economic reform.

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Chapter 2 current performance and future potential

Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential

Shiro Armstrong

29 April workshop


Outline
Outline

  • How does Myanmar measure up against comparable economies?

  • Trade and investment potential

  • Achievable trade and growth scenarios

  • Challenge for national economic reform


Trade gdp ratios at gdp per capita of 830 usd t 0
Trade/GDP ratios at GDP per capita of 830 USD (t=0)

Source: UN Comtrade and WDI (Ng, 2013)


Trade performance
Trade performance

  • How to define and measure?

  • What do we expect Myanmar’s exports and imports to be given its size, place in the world, endowments and other characteristics?

  • Estimating a hypothetical frontier (maximum) based on characteristics of global best performers

  • Performance = actual/potential


The more technical explanation
The (more) technical explanation

  • Stochastic frontier analysis applied to the gravity model (normal and non-negative residuals)

  • Achievement of potential is measure of economic distance. Estimates difficult to measure or unexplained resistances and barriers

  • Cannot compare actual to predicted trade from gravity model

  • GDP, distance, endowments to estimate performance

  • Policy variablesand barriers help explain performance




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