1 / 7

Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential

Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential. Shiro Armstrong 29 April workshop. Outline. How does Myanmar measure up against comparable economies? Trade and investment potential Achievable trade and growth scenarios Challenge for national economic reform.

kina
Download Presentation

Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential Shiro Armstrong 29 April workshop

  2. Outline • How does Myanmar measure up against comparable economies? • Trade and investment potential • Achievable trade and growth scenarios • Challenge for national economic reform

  3. Trade/GDP ratios at GDP per capita of 830 USD (t=0) Source: UN Comtrade and WDI (Ng, 2013)

  4. Trade performance • How to define and measure? • What do we expect Myanmar’s exports and imports to be given its size, place in the world, endowments and other characteristics? • Estimating a hypothetical frontier (maximum) based on characteristics of global best performers • Performance = actual/potential

  5. The (more) technical explanation • Stochastic frontier analysis applied to the gravity model (normal and non-negative residuals) • Achievement of potential is measure of economic distance. Estimates difficult to measure or unexplained resistances and barriers • Cannot compare actual to predicted trade from gravity model • GDP, distance, endowments to estimate performance • Policy variablesand barriers help explain performance

  6. Average import performance

  7. Average export performance

More Related