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Regione Umbria Dept of Environment, Territory and Infrastructures Division of Land Defence, Quarries, Mines and Mineral Waters. Rainfall-runoff models for the activities of the regional warning centre (first applications).
Regione UmbriaDept of Environment, Territory and InfrastructuresDivision of Land Defence, Quarries, Mines and Mineral Waters
Rainfall-runoff models for the activities of the regional warning centre
Nicola Berni, Angelo Viterbo, Claudia Pandolfo, Marco Stelluti, Luca Brocca
Workshop on Rainfall – Runoff and regional models
Sofia, Bulgaria 9 - 11 July 2007
Monitoring, forecasting and best practices
for FLOOD Mitigation and prevEntion
in the CADSES region
NATIONAL WARNING SYSTEM
REAL TIMERegional “Centri Funzionali” (Functional Centers) and National Warning System
Predicted Ground Effects for the following day
Precipitation observed in previous days
25 FC (central, regional)
2 CFC – “Central”
(DPC , APAT – Roma)
21 CFD – “Regional”
2 CFS – “Service”
(CAE – Bologna; ACROTEC - Savona)
fully operating * 9
Not yet fully operating
* Update at june 2007
For the activities of our regional warning centre we need simple models, robust, with few parameters but able to forecast quickly mainly time to peak and peak discharges
Is it better to develop “home made” codes or adopt commercial or free to use tools continuously updated and tested?
Mathematical models running:
On-line with real time data
For precipitation-runoff-routing simulation, HEC-HMS provides the following components:
• Precipitation-specification options which can describe an observed
(historical) precipitation event, a frequency-based hypothetical precipitation
event, or a event that represents the upper limit of precipitation possible at a
• Loss models which can estimate the volume of runoff, given the precipitation and properties of the watershed.
• Direct runoff models that can account for overland flow, storage and energy losses as water runs off a watershed and into the stream channels.
• Hydrologic routing models that account for storage and energy flux as water moves through stream channels.
• Models of naturally occurring confluences and bifurcations.
Models of water-control measures, including diversions and storage
• A distributed runoff model for use with distributed precipitation data, such as the data available from weather radar.
• A continuous soil-moisture-accounting model used to simulate the long-term response of a watershed to wetting and drying.
• An automatic calibration package that can estimate certain model parameters and initial conditions, given observations of hydrometeorological conditions.
• Links to a database management system that permits data storage, retrieval and connectivity with other analysis tools available from HEC and other sources.
Dreainage network estimation
Concentration times for each cell
The model MOBIDIC (MOdello di Bilancio Idrologico DIstribuito e Continuo – Distributed and Continuous Model for the Hydrological Balance) is used for the hydrological forecast and monitoring at the Tuscan Functional Center.
The model was developed in cooperation with the University of Florence.
MOBIDIC is a physically-based model that allows the estimation of the components of the hydrologic balance in the subsurface layer, the soil-vegetation system and surface water bodies.
The hydrological balance can then be run in realtime or deferred mode with the desired spatial and temporal resolution.
In MOBIDIC, the spatial domain for the computation of the hydrological processes is represented with an horizontal discretization of the basin in square cell with arbitrary size and a vertical discretization into 5 layers:
1) vegetation, 2) surface reservoirs (rivers, lakes, artificial basins) , 3) gravitational soil 4) capillary soil 5)groundwater
In the representation of physical processes, the main innovations concern the coupling of the water balance in soil and vegetation with surface energy balance (to the benefit of evapotranspiration computation and use of remotely sensed maps of Land Surface Temperature for calibration and validation) and the detailed interaction between ground water and surface water bodies.
The states computed by the model are soil water content, hydrological and energy balance components (evapotranspiration, soil temperature) and discharge in each branch of the river network (including minor branches).
At the Functional Center, MOBIDIC is run in realtime mode, fed by the data from the hydrometeorological network (every 30 minutes) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from 4 different meteorological models.
Also through a web interface, the user can query the main discharge stations and view the predicted discharges assuming different predicted rainfall.
2° threshold value
6.43 (02:48 gg/mm)
1° threshold value
Predicted rainfall with LAMI
3 stream gauge (along the main channel); 8 for tributaries;
GOOD amount of data (GIS layers, DEM, meteo stations, rating curves, etc.)
6 calibrating events
1 test events (the most important one of November 2005)
6 calibrating events