Robotic Rational Reasoning!. P.H.S. Torr. Book. An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic Ian Hacking In library. Resources. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/. Machine Learning. Suppose we are to design a robot How is to learn about the world?
Suppose some dark night a policeman walks down a street, apparently deserted; but suddenly he hears a burglar alarm, looks across the street, and sees a jewellery store with a broken window. Then a gentleman wearing a mask comes crawling out through the broken window, carrying a bag which turns out to be full of expensive jewellery. The policeman doesn\'t hesitate at all in deciding that this gentleman is dishonest.
But by what reasoning process does he arrive at this conclusion?
To draw inferences has been said to be the great business of life. Every one has daily, hourly, and momentary need of ascertaining facts which he has not directly observed; not from any general purpose of adding to his stock of knowledge, but because the facts themselves are of importance to his interests or to his occupations.
Introduction from the Longman\'s 1884 edition of the System of Logic.
John Stuart Mill (1843)
Must this always be true?
Although we can not be certain it seems probable that this man is a burglar.
The word probability derives from the Latin probare (to prove, or to test).
Premise: All cars have wheels
Premise: All wheels are round
Conclusion: All cars have round wheels
Premise: I have a diamond
Premise: Most diamonds are shiny
Premise: My diamond is shiny
Premise: John is 93
Conclusion: John will not do a double back flip today
Then not O
Therefore, not H
. What these arguments prove--and I do not think the proof can be controverted--is, that induction is an independent logical principle, incapable of being inferred either from experience or from other logical principles, and that without this principle science is impossible.
As mentioned before it seems to us to make sense to say
This man is probably a burglar.
What does probability mean?
Consider the Statements: