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WELCOME!. Please sign in. Building Leadership Skills: Planning for the Future. Instructor: Stacey Aldrich stacey.aldrich@gmail.com An Infopeople Workshop Summer 2009. This Workshop Is Brought to You By the Infopeople Project.

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  1. WELCOME! Please sign in

  2. Building Leadership Skills: Planning for the Future Instructor: Stacey Aldrich stacey.aldrich@gmail.com An Infopeople Workshop Summer 2009

  3. This Workshop Is Brought to You By the Infopeople Project Infopeople is a federally-funded grant project supported by the California State Library. It provides a wide variety of training to California libraries. Infopeople workshops are offered around the state and are open registration on a first-come, first-served basis. For a complete list of workshops, and for other information about the project, go to the Infopeople website at infopeople.org.

  4. GET TO KNOW EACH OTHER • Name • Library • Position • What future thing that you have read about or seen in movies are you still waiting for?

  5. WORKSHOP OVERVIEW • Making Assumptions Explicit • Environmental Scanning • Trends and Technologies • Scenario Building - Manoa Method • Wrap up and Evaluation

  6. HEADLINES 2030 • What are the top 3 headlines of the magazine or newspaper that you have chosen for March 2030?

  7. ebooks

  8. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE • Important to make explicit • Help to clarify our mental models about the future AssumptionsDecisionsActions

  9. FUTURE StrategicDirection StrategicDirection Strategic Direction Strategic Direction Trends Wild Cards Uncertainties Critical Events Discontinuities Strategic Planning

  10. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING • Making a conscientious effort to pay attention to trends, patterns, emerging issues, and potential wild cards. • Finding dynamic connections among the trends and patterns to identify opportunities and challenges.

  11. JARGON WATCH Patternicity n. “The tendency to find patterns where there are none. According to a recent study, evolution favors patternicity because it’s safer to detect false threat than to ignore a real one and become a bogeyman’s lunch meat.” Jonathan Keats(jargon@wired.com)Wired May 2009

  12. TECHNIQUES • Read/Watch/Listen/Try broadly - look outside of your interests • Keep a file of interesting technologies or social changes and record the patterns that you see • STEEP • Opportunity Hunt

  13. Society Technology Economy Ecology Politics Source: tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Zeerust • Reminder that the future doesn’t happen in a vacuum • Use to ponder possible implications and possibilities

  14. Society Technology Economy Ecology Politics Implications? Possibilities?

  15. Society Technology Economy Ecology Politics Implications? Possibilities? FABBING http://www.itg.uiuc.edu/printing/3D/

  16. OPPORTUNITY HUNT

  17. iPhone - WHAT IS IT? • 8 or 16 GB flash drive • Touch screen • Accelerometer • Communication (voice, text) • Movies • Music • Camera • Internet browser • Alarm clock • Calendar • GPS • Games • Information device • Used cross generations

  18. iPhone - WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Personal Collections Customization Music/Audio books/Podcasting Memory and Storage Capacity Rip/remix/burn Everyone is a DJ Content creator e-Books 35,000 apps Community of developers Packaged information

  19. MEMORY & TEXT SOURCE: WISEGEEK.COM - http://www.wisegeek.com

  20. iPhone - HOW TO INNOVATE? • Podcast • Book reviews • Story times • How to Podcast sessions • Podcache • Audio tour guides • Treasure hunting with clues from Podcast • Content packages • GPS located collections to help guide community

  21. FIVE TRENDS

  22. WHAT IS A TREND? “Clearly observable changes happening today and expected to continue into the future.” strategic foresight: the power of standing in the future

  23. FIVE TRENDS • Age of Integration • Evolution of Digital Interaction • We Media • Information Visualization • Development and Integration of Robotics

  24. TREND 1 – Age of Integration “We are now in the Integration Age. It is about making things work really well together…Google doesn’t “make the Internet.” Google “makes the Internet better.” Pip Coburn, UBS Investment Bank • iTunes • Socialight • Utterli • Cozi • iGoogle • Semapedia • Video Games • iPhone • TV/Cellphone

  25. Wired Found

  26. TREND 2 – Evolution of Digital Interaction • FlyPen • Nabaztag Bunny • Hug Shirt • Tikitag • Speech to txt • Artificial Intelligence • Sony patent for beaming sensory experience directly to the brain • Video games http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pzp8S_7yspM

  27. TREND 3 – We Media • Blogs • Websites • GPS • Twitter • Youtube • Blurb

  28. TREND 4 – Information Visualization • Wefeelfine.org • Biomapping • swivel.com • Nike • Tops 3D cards

  29. TREND 5 – Development & Integration of Robotics

  30. SCENARIO BUILDING

  31. BRIEF HISTORY OF SCENARIOS • Emerged after WWII as a method of military planning • 1960’s Herman Kahn created business approach • 1970’s Pierre Wack used at Royal Dutch/Shell “The end result, however, is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future.” -Peter Schwartz from The Art of the Long View

  32. VARIETY OF SCENARIO METHODS • Method 1 • 2 variables • 2 ranges • Create 4 scenarios • Method 2 • Multiple variables • Multiple scenarios Variable 1    Variable 2      

  33. MANOA APPROACH • Created by Dr. Wendy Schultz of Infinite Futures • It is designed to create long-term, provocative, transformation images of alternative futures • Good for sparking creativity not strategic planning

  34. MANOA APPROACH - HOW • Select at least 3 emerging issues from different STEEP categories • Create futures wheels exploring the impacts for each of the 3 emerging issues • Explore the possible connection points among the 3 future wheels and discuss their impacts • Discuss a possible future created by the 3 emerging issues • Create a “day in the life” of story

  35. STEP 1 - TRENDS/EMERGING ISSUES • Each person select 2-3 trends that are most interesting and most uncertain from the list. • Write one trend per sticky note • Post on the wall

  36. STEP 2 - CREATE FUTURES WHEELS COMMUNICATION? Put the trend in an inner circle Take a few minutes to imagine possible impacts on a variety of life aspects Connect impacts to the trend with lines Explore connections among the 3 trends. WORK? EDUCATION? HOMES? TREND FAMILIES? ECONOMY? ENVIRONMENT? INFO? Consider secondary impacts

  37. EXAMPLE - FUTURES WHEELS NEED MORE WORKERS SMALL BIZ FAIL EDUCATION? NO WORK/ HOME SPLIT 24/7 Service ENVIRONMENT? MULTIPLE COMMUNICATION METHODS INFO? NEED 24/7 IT STAFF

  38. EXPLORE CONNECTIONS IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT TREND 1 IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT TREND 2 IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT TREND 3 IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT

  39. STEP 2 - CREATE FUTURES WHEELS COMMUNICATION? Put the trend in an inner circle Take a few minutes to imagine possible impacts on a variety of life aspects Connect impacts to the trend with lines Explore connections among the 3 trends. WORK? EDUCATION? HOMES? TREND FAMILIES? ECONOMY? ENVIRONMENT? INFO? Consider secondary impacts

  40. STEP 3 - FOCUS QUESTIONS • What skills do staff members need to thrive in this scenario? • What does the organization look like? How many staff? What kind of staff? What are imperative organizational behaviors? • What services and programs does library provide? • How is the library budget distributed in this world? (staffing, collections, technology, etc…) • What is a collection? • What is literacy? • What does research look like? Is reference still alive? What does it look like? • Is there a physical space? If so, what does it need to have? • What is the role of the library in the community? • What kind of technology do you need?

  41. STEP 4 - Day in the Life • Review all of the impacts your group imagined for your 3 trends. • Review the answers to your focus questions. • If everything above were true, what would it look like? Describe a day, as if you live there. (blog entry, diary, a news headline)

  42. 5 Questions to ponder • How do people know things? • How do people find and use information? • What is community? • What is learning? • What is leisure and entertainment

  43. A final thought… “Any useful statement about the future should at first sound ridiculous.” Dator’s Law

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