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Flooding in the Amite Basin: I ncreased Threat in the Coming Months?. Jay Grymes WAFB Chief Meteorologist LSU AgCenter Climatologist. Strengthening El Niño?. Flooding in the Amite Basin: I ncreased Threat in the Coming Months?.

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Jay Grymes WAFB Chief Meteorologist LSU AgCenter Climatologist

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Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Flooding in the Amite Basin:

Increased Threat in the Coming Months?

Jay Grymes

WAFB Chief Meteorologist

LSU AgCenter Climatologist

Strengthening El Niño?


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Flooding in the Amite Basin:

Increased Threat in the Coming Months?

-- reviewed daily mean stage for ‘Amite nr Denham Springs’

for the period Oct 1974 – present . . .

data courtesy of USGS, Louisiana

-- “flood events” defined as at least one day with

daily mean stage ≥ 29.0 ft

-- “moderate flood” defined as at least one day with

daily mean stage ≥ 35.0 ft

-- “major flood” defined as instantaneous stage ≥ 39.0 ft


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Nov-to-Mar Rainfall: Departure from Normal

El Nino Winter/Springs: 1950 - 1995

Rainfall Below Normal

Rainfall Above Normal


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

El Niño ‘Signature’ along the Gulf Coast:

‘Active’ Sub-Tropical Jet

Sub-Tropical Jet

More Frequent

Gulf Lows

“Warm” SSTs


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

December-thru-May Rainfall:

Louisiana EC Climate Division

1974-75 thru 2009-10

El Niño

La Nada

“Neutral”

El Niño/Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) Ranking

La Niña

Series Median

6-mo. Rainfall (in.)

Seasonal rainfall

tends to be greater

during El Niño events

Rainfall Data: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center

ENSO Ranks: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Amite River near Denham Springs

Flood Events: Oct 1974 – Present

by Month

51 Events

-- 4 as ‘tropical’

-- 3 in summer/fall

‘Babe’

(1977)

‘Juan’

(1985)

‘Allison’

(2001)

‘Gustav’

(2008)

River Stage Data: USGS, Louisiana


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Amite River near Denham Springs

Flood Events: Oct 1974 – Present

by Month

51 Events

Apr 1977 & Apr 1983

. . . ‘major’ floods . . .

both during El Niños

1983

1977

1990

‘Major’ Floods: > 39 ft

River Stage Data: USGS, Louisiana


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Amite River near Denham Springs

Flood Events by Year: 1974 – Present

(All Months)

River Stage Data: USGS, Louisiana


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Amite River near Denham Springs

Flood Events by Year: 1974 – Present

(December thru May)

‘Major’ Floods:

> 39 ft

River Stage Data: USGS, Louisiana


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

NWS/CPC ENSO ONI Index:

Jan-Feb-Mar Index Score

35 Seasons: 9 El Niños & 9 La Niñas

El Niño

La Niña

ONI Index: NWS Climate Prediction Center


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

NWS/CPC ENSO ONI Index:

Jan-Feb-Mar Index Score

& Occurrences of Winter/Spring Floods

5

El Niños:

16 floods

in 9 seasons

1

El Niño

1

2

3

1

1

0

2

La Niñas:

5 floods

in 9 seasons

0

1

1

0

0

1

0

0

2

La Niña

No ‘moderate’ to ‘major’ floods

La Nadas:

23 floods in 17 seasons

ONI Index: NWS Climate Prediction Center


Jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist

Flooding in the Amite Basin:

Increased Threat in the Coming Months?

While flooding in the coming months is not a certainty, climatic signals

(El Niño) point to an elevated threat of ‘high water’ along the Amite

near Denham Springs . . . and therefore much of the greater Amite Basin.


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