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CENRAP Modeling Workgroup. Mational RPO Modeling Meeting May 25-26, Denver CO Calvin Ku Missouri DNR May 25, 2004. CENRAP Modeling Timeline. Control Strategy. Preliminary. Basecase. Jul-Dec 2003 Jan & Jul 02 (99) MM5 & SMOKE. Aug-Dec 2004 Annual MM5/SMOKE 2002 NEI v. 2 basecase

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cenrap modeling workgroup

CENRAP Modeling Workgroup

Mational RPO Modeling Meeting

May 25-26, Denver CO

Calvin Ku

Missouri DNR

May 25, 2004

cenrap modeling timeline
CENRAP Modeling Timeline

Control Strategy

Preliminary

Basecase

Jul-Dec 2003

Jan & Jul 02 (99)

MM5 & SMOKE

Aug-Dec 2004

Annual MM5/SMOKE

2002 NEI v. 2 basecase

Emission Improvements

Jun-Aug 2005

2018 Project. basecase Control Strategy Inv.

Meteorology & Emissions

Jan-Apr 2004

Model Evaluation/Select

CMAQ & CAMx

Jan-Aug 2005

Model Performance. Evaluation

Jul-Sep 2005

2018 basevase &

Emission Sensitivity

Air Quality Modeling

Apr-Sep 2004

MM5 (v.3.6.3)/basB

Emissions Sensitivity

Diagnostic Analysis

July-Aug 2005

Emissions Sensitivity

Diagnostic Analysis

Oct-Dec 2005

Regional Control Strategy Runs

Oct 2004

AQ Model selected & Dev. Model Protocol

Jan-Jun 2006

Final Strategy &

Recommendations

preliminary modeling goals
Preliminary Modeling Goals
  • Evaluate the performance of PM models for the CENRAP region
    • CMAQ vs CAMx
  • Assess uncertainties, sensitivity simulations, and prioritize model improvement activities
  • Integrate AER evaluations with UCR analysis
  • Recommend a best model system for use in CENRAP’s Regional Haze plan
preliminary modeling domain
Preliminary Modeling Domain
  • CMAQ and CAMx
  • Jan & July 2002 episodes
  • National RPO grid Lamber Conformal Conic @ center (-97, 40), Lat (33, 45)
  • MM5 165x129x34
  • SMOKE 147x111x18
  • CAMx 101x95x18
  • CMAQ 101x95x16
configuration of models
Configuration of Models
  • CMB-IV gas phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx
  • RADM aqueous phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx
  • Horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion
  • Convective transport treated in CMAQ
  • Dry deposition
  • Wet deposition of gases and particles
  • Particle size distribution
  • Aerosol thermodynamics
  • Aerosol dynamics
problems found in phase 1
Problems found in phase 1
  • negative deposition velocity (mcip) @ 0 gmt due to VEGFRAC (mm5)
  • newly released (2/16/04) MM5 v3.6.3 (mcip patch provided by Donna did not work)
  • temp difference ranges -20 to +20 C
  • difference in biogenic & mobile emissions
performance evaluation data available for pm model
Performance Evaluation Data Available for PM Model

Routine Monitors

  • IMPROVE: 24 hour PM2.5 and component data, one in three days
  • CASTNet: 7-day sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SO2, and HNO3 (may be problematic)
  • AQS: hourly to daily PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5 speciation, O3, NO, NO2, NOy, VOC, SO2

Special Studies

  • PM Supersites
  • BRAVO
some observations from preliminary modeling
Some Observations from Preliminary Modeling
  • Due to large geo, topo, and meterology variations in CENRAP region different approaches for improving model performance at different Class I areas may be required.
  • Emissions sensitivity improves performance but maybe the wrong reason. Also, it may improve the performance at one region but not the other region.
  • Zero BC for sulfate significantly improves the normalized bias by eliminating systematic overpredictions at low concentrations.
  • The “other” PM25 component is consistently overpredicted
    • basB applies fugitive dust transport factors and significantly reduce the “other” PM25
  • Accurate predictions of sulfate and nitrate, and the associated ammonium is still key for CENRAP regional haze modeling
    • Sulfate: chemistry
    • Nitrate: chemistry, ammonia emissions, and thermodynamics
next steps
Next Steps
  • Continue sensitivity runs for SOx, VOC (just finish NOx/NH3 sensitivities) and analyze CMAQ/CAMx results due to emissions reductions.
  • Start diagnostic analysis as per proposal.
  • Integrate UCR/Environ modeling analysis.
  • Model selection based on model runs & diagnostic.
  • Develop annual MM5 36km/12km for CENRAP
  • Incorporate emission improvements in 2002 NEI
  • Develop a RFP for basecase modeling
2002 basecase development domain met modeling
2002 Basecase DevelopmentDomain & Met Modeling
  • CMAQ or CAMx?
  • Domain 1 (36km)
  • - MM5 165x129x34
  • - AQM 147x111x18?
  • Domain 2 (12km)
  • - MM5 180x240x34?
  • - AQM 162x222x18?
  • MM5 Configuration - Moisture - Reisner II - Cumulus - Kain-Fritsch II - PBL - Pleim-Xiu - Radiation - RRTM - Soil Temp - Pleim-Xiu LSM
2002 basecase development emission inventory
2002 Basecase DevelopmentEmission Inventory
  • A RFP for Compiling Emission Modeling Inventory
  • 2002 NEI version 2 - mid July 04
  • work products from STI inc. ammonia, fire, prescribed burning, nonroad, mobile, etc.
  • work products from other RPOs
  • 2002 CEM data SMOKE format
  • improved temporal, spatial, & speciation profiles.
  • additional QA & missing data
  • SMOKE (IDA) converter
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