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Ch.9 The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model

Ch.9 The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model. 9.1 Introduction 9.2 The Representative Agent Hypothesis and Its Notion of Equilibrium 9.3 An Exchange (Endowment) Economy 9.4 Pricing Arrow-Debreu State-Contingent Claims with the CCAPM

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Ch.9 The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model

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  1. Ch.9 The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model • 9.1 Introduction • 9.2 The Representative Agent Hypothesis and Its Notion of Equilibrium • 9.3 An Exchange (Endowment) Economy • 9.4 Pricing Arrow-Debreu State-Contingent Claims with the CCAPM • 9.5 Testing the Consumption CAPM: The Equity Premium Puzzle • 9.6 Testing the Consumption CAPM: Hansen-Jagannathan Bounds • 9.7 Some Extensions • 9.8 Conclusions

  2. 9.2 The Representative Agent Hypothesis and Its Notion of Equilibrium • 9.2.1 An Infinitely Lived Representative Agent • Avoid terminal period problem • Equivalence with finite lives if operative bequest motive • 9.2.2 On the Concept of a « No-Trade » Equilibrium • Positive net supply: the representative agent willingly hold total supply • Zero net supply: at the prevailing price, supply = demand = 0

  3. 9.3 An Exchange (Endowment) Economy • Recursive trading – many periods; investment decisions are • made one period at a time, taking due account of their impact • on the future state of the world • One perfectly divisible share • Dividend = economy’s total output • Output arises exogenously and stochastically (fruit tree) • Stationary stochastic process

  4. Probability Transition Matrix • Lucas fruit tree • Grafting an aggregate ouput process • Rational expectations economy: knowledge of the • economic structure and the stochastic process

  5. (9.1) F.O.C:

  6. (9.2) Definition of an equilibrium (i) , i.e., the representative agent owns the entire security; (ii) , i.e., ownership of the entire security entitles the agent to all the economy's output and, (iii) , i.e., the agents’ holdings of the security are optimal given the prevailing prices. Substituting (ii) into (iii) informs us that the equilibrium price must satisfy: Euler Equation

  7. (9.3) (9.4) (9.5) • Discounting at the IMRS of the representative agent! • Assume risk neutrality:

  8. (9.6) (9.7) 9.3.2 Interpreting the Exchange Equilibrium =>Link between discount factor and risk-free rate in a risk neutral world

  9. (9.8) , or, rearranging, , or (9.9)

  10. Interpreting the CCAPM • Risk premium is large for those securities paying high returns when consumption is high (MU is low) and low returns when consumption is low. • Intuition not far from CAPM, but CCAPM adopts consumption smoothing perspective • The key to an asset’s value is its covariation with the MU of consumption rather than the MU of wealth

  11. Let (9.10) One step further: towards a CAPM equation Marginal utility is inversely proportional to ct

  12. (9.11) , or , or (9.12) (9.13) 9.3.3 The Formal Consumption CAPM c denotes portfolio most correlated with consumption if bc,ct =1

  13. 1. 2. 9.4 Pricing Arrow-Debreu State-Contingent Claims with the CCAPM Finite states Continuum of states

  14. N-period claims N period risk free zero discount bond: (9.14) Valuing future cash flows revisited: Discounting at the IMRS = valuing at A-D prices!

  15. (9.15) (9.16)

  16. 9.5 Testing the Consumption CAPM: The Equity Premium Puzzle

  17. (9.17)

  18. (9.18) (9.20) 2(.00123) = .002 = (ln(ER)-ln(ERf) ER – ERf (9.19)

  19. (9.21) (9.22) 9.6 Testing the Consumption CAPM: Hansen-Jagannathan Bounds

  20. , or , or , or , or

  21. (9.24) = . 99 (.967945) = .96 for g = 2.

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