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Dr. Gilbert Brunet Meteorological Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada

The Regional and Urban Numerical Weather Prediction and Operational Long Range Plan of the Meteorological Service of Canada. Dr. Gilbert Brunet Meteorological Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environnment Canada Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers

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Dr. Gilbert Brunet Meteorological Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada

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  1. The Regional and Urban Numerical Weather Prediction and Operational Long Range Plan of the Meteorological Service of Canada Dr. Gilbert Brunet Meteorological Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environnment Canada Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers 21 September 2004 Aknowledgement: Desgagné, Bélair, Mailhot and Roch

  2. Outline of the talk… • Who we are • Multi-scale meteorological modeling • Numerical weather prediction now, in one year and ten years: Two examples of importance for urban area -Hurricanes - Urban meteorology and air quality • Future R&D challenges

  3. Who we are • Canadian Meteorological Centre and Meteorological Research Branch is the • Canadian equivalent to US NOAA NWS NCEP and US Navy FNMOC for numerical weather prediction • Canadian equivalent to LLNL NARAC for multi-scale atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling • Equivalent centres within the World Meteorological Organization : Washington (USA), Bracknell (UK), Toulouse (FR), Melbourne (AU), Tokyo (JP)

  4. Uniform resolution Variable resolution Hydrostatic Nonhydrostatic Global Limited-area Distributed memory --------------------------------- 3D Var Data Assimilation 4D Var Data Assimilation Ensemble Kalman Filter Operational forecast Emergency response Volcanic ash Air quality Stratospheric ozone Wave model Coupling to oceanographic simulations etc

  5. Improving Hurricane Forecasting Hurricane Juan 28 September 2003 Halifax Hurricane climatology

  6. Grid of GEM for global Numerical weather Prediction (33 km horizontal resolution)

  7. Instantaneous precipitation rate (mm/hr) for the Operational GEM model A 5 day animation (20/01/2002 to 25/01/2002) (HR=100km, TR=45 min.)

  8. Instantaneous precipitation rate (mm/hr) for the Meso-Global GEM model A 5 day animation (20/01/2002 to 25/01/2002) (HR=33km, TR= 15 min.)

  9. Canada-JapanCollaboration • 25 time more powerful than the IBM cluster at the • Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) • Available in 5~10 years from now at CMC

  10. Modelling the Full Lifecycle ofHurricane Earl (Sept 1998)at 1km Resolution with MC2 Model (Canadian equivalent to US MM5) 964 hPa ET Phase 985 hPa Tropical Phase Class2 Hurricane September 1998: Classified as a very active TC period

  11. -Humidity at 350m height is shown over Gulf of Mexico for the first 12 hours of the simulation.-Only 1% of the simulation domain is shown!

  12. From CCRS REPRESENTATION of URBAN SURFACES in Meteorological Service of Canada ATMOSPHERIC MODELS

  13. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Operational Representation of Urban Surfaces at the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC): New Opportunities In the higher resolution convective scale models that are on the verge of being operationally implemented at CMC, it will become increasingly important to correctly represent physical processes over urban surfaces. This is not the case in the short and medium-range weather forecast systems currently operational at CMC, in which even large urban areas (e.g., 50 km x 25 km) would have a negligible impact on the atmospheric circulations produced by the models. Urban area does not even cover a single grid point of the model ! GLOBAL medium-range forecasts  ~ 100 km Urban area covers 2 model grid points. REGIONAL short-range forecasts  ~ 25 km Urban area covers a large number of points (50x25=1250) LOCAL convective scale models  ~ 1 km RPN

  14. As the resolution increase, you need to consider new ‘details’ such as…. What you need is more than a high resolution topography… Need to develop a new Physics parameterization scheme (Town Energy Budget or TEB, details in the surface characteristics e.g. heat, momentum and moisture fluxes)

  15. In collaboration with our CRTI partners (U. of Waterloo, Defence R&D Canada) Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada The Joint Urban 2003 Experiment Atmospheric dispersion study 28 June to 31 July 2003 • Include the following meteorological measurements: • 22 surface met stations • 6 surface energy budget stations • 2 CTI windtracer lidars • 2 radiosonde systems • 4 wind profiler/RASS systems • 1 FM-CW radar • 3 ceilometers • 9 sodars • + Oklahoma mesonet • + NEXRAD radars of the US weather service RPN

  16. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Other Cases and Collaborations Assessment of role and impact of TEB in Canadian urban environments: • For example: • Cold weather cases with snow (e.g., Montreal in January) • Other cases: opportunity to use the Multi-city Urban Hydro-meteorological dataset (MUHB) with Prof. Tim Oke’s group at U. British-Colombia • Developping an operational system for Vancouver in view of the 2010 Winter Olympics. RPN

  17. GEM is an ideal tool for multi-scale atmospheric transport and dispersion problems, including urban scale

  18. Urban atmospheric transport and dispersion tools • We have started a project based on GEM to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials. • Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions to minimize the consequences based on a pre-determined decision making framework.

  19. Conclusion For 2004-2005 the R&D strategy in collaboration with CMC, regional weather servicesand Canadian Universities • Global NWP with a MESOGLOBAL GEM (35km) with a lid at the stratopause (.1mb) with the Regional GEM physics package • A 4D-Var data assimilation system with increasing new asynoptic and satellite data • An Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) will be delivered with a comprehensive physics and initial condition perturbations approach - A comprehensive unified EPS R&D and operational Long Range Plan has bee initiated with the National Weather Service. Ribbon Tying Ceremony 16-18 November, 2004, NCEP, Camp Springs

  20. Conclusion • Improved our Regional (15km-10km) and Local (3km-1km) NWP system with applications to urban area problems • Collaborating with CMC, REGIONSand Canadian Universities and other partners for Environmental Prediction (coupling GEM with chemistry, hydrology and ocean)

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