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Health Transition Bushra Jabeen PRN student

Health Transition Bushra Jabeen PRN student. Objectives:. At the end of lecture the learners will be able to: Define Demography. Discuss demographical and epidemiological transition. Identify the stages of Demographical and epidemiological transition.

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Health Transition Bushra Jabeen PRN student

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  1. Health Transition Bushra Jabeen PRN student

  2. Objectives: At the end of lecture the learners will be able to: • Define Demography. • Discuss demographical and epidemiological transition. • Identify the stages of Demographical and epidemiological transition. • Describe the population pyramid and its stages.

  3. Conti…. • Discuss the factors effecting population change. • Discuss the changes in life expectancy. • Recognize the major causes of death changes. • Summarize the whole content. • References.

  4. Health Transition • The changes over time in a society's health. The term has a wider meaning than mortality transition, covering the positive condition of health as well as death and illness. It also refers to the cultural, social and behavioral determinants of health. (Source:http://eps.mq.edu.au)

  5. Health Transition Two terms which used in health transition are: • Demographic transition • Epidemiological transition

  6. Demography • The study of the characteristics of human populations, such as size, growth, density, distribution, and vital statistics. http://www.thefreedictionary.com • The study of the characteristics of human populations, such as size, growth, density, distribution, and vital statistics. http://www.answers.com

  7. Demography • The field covers three main areas: • the size, growth, distribution and composition of populations; (2) the demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration) which directly influence population size, growth, distribution and composition; (3) the relationships between these elements and processes and the environments (e.g. social, economic, cultural, technological, biophysical) within which they exist.

  8. Demographic transition • The change that typically takes place, as a country develops, in the birth and death rates of its population. http://www.investorwords.com

  9. The Demographic Transition Theory …

  10. Stages of Demographic transition Stage 1: It is characterized by a balance between birth rates and death rates. In this stage, birth and death rates are both very high so it results in only very slow population growth. • Lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure; • occasional food shortages.

  11. Conti… Stage 2: Decline in the death rate while the birth rate remains high, or perhaps even rises slightly. • Improvements in food supply • Improvements in public health that reduced mortality, particularly in childhood.

  12. Conti… Stage 3: It moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate. • Change in behavior(parents realize they not require so many children} • Increasing urbanization • Increasing female literacy and employment • Improvements in contraceptive technology

  13. Conti… Stage 4: It is characterized by stability. Because both the death and birth rate are low. e.g. United states. Stage 5: In some cases there are more deaths than births therefore leading to a possible stage five. Low birth rates and high death rate. e.g.: western Europe, Japan

  14. Demographic transition

  15. The Demographic Transition Theory …

  16. Factors Affecting Population Change There are four factors that affect population change in a country:  1)  BIRTH RATE-the number of live births per 1000 in a year 2)  DEATH RATE-the number of deaths per 1000 in a year 3)  IMMIGRATION-the number of people moving into a country 4) EMIGRATION-the number of people leaving a country

  17. Measuring population change • By three basic Demographic Data: • Birth rate • Death rate • Net migration.

  18. Population Growth Rate • Rate of Natural Increase (RNI): birth rate minus death rate, calculated as a percentage; this does not take migration into consideration RNI (%) = BR  -  DR                     10 Doubling Time – The time in years needed for a population to double its size assuming the growth rate remains the same. DT (years) =   70                      RNI Doubling Time

  19. Population pyramid • A pyramid-shaped diagram illustrating the age distribution of a population: the youngest are represented by a rectangle at the base, the oldest by one at the apex. • The population pyramid represents the breakdown of the population by gender and age at a given point in time. It consists of two histograms, one for each gender (by convention, men on the left and women on the right) where the numbers are shown horizontally and the ages vertically.

  20. Types of Population pyramid There are generally three types of population pyramids created from age-sex distributions. 1.Expansive Pyramids It show larger numbers or percentages of the population in the younger age groups. These types of pyramids are usually found in populations with very large fertility rates and lower than average life expectancies. The age-sex distributions of many Third World countries would probably display expansive population pyramids.

  21. Conti… 2.Constrictive Pyramids Population pyramids display lower numbers or percentages of younger people. The age-sex distributions of the United States fall into this type of pyramid.

  22. Conti… 3.Stationary Pyramids Stationary or near-stationary population pyramids display somewhat equal numbers or percentages for almost all age groups. Of course, smaller figures are still to be expected at the oldest age groups. The age-sex distributions of some European countries, especially Scandinavian ones, will tend to fall into this category.

  23. Conti… Types of Population pyramid

  24. Epidemiologic transition • The "epidemiologic transition" refers to relatively constant patterns of changes in patterns of disease as societies develop . • The epidemiologic transition describes changing patterns of population age distributions, mortality, fertility, life expectancy, and causes of death.

  25. Stages of Epidemiologic transition • Stage 1: "The Age of Pestilence and Famine when mortality is high and fluctuating, thus precluding sustained population growth" (Omran). Average life expectancy at birth is low and variable, in the range of 20 to 40 years.The Black Plague was the most violent of the epidemics of stage one..

  26. Conti… • Stage 2: "The Age of Receding Pandemics when mortality declines progressively and the rate of decline accelerates as epidemic peaks become less frequent or disappear. The average life expectancy at birth increases steadily from about 30 to 50 years. Population growth is sustained and begins to describe an exponential curve" (Omran).Example:John Snow and the cholera epidemic of London

  27. Conti… • Stage 3Major health issues-heart attacks and cancer-decline in infectious diseases thanks to widespread use of vaccines (examples, polio, measles)

  28. Conti… • Stage 4The stage of delayed degenerative diseases. Same causes of death as stage three but widespread use of the latest medical advances and surgical operations causes a delay of death and extends longevity

  29. Conti… • Possible Stage 5-resurgence of epidemic diseases caused by antibiotic resistant strains and new diseases that come from animals (SARS, Avian bird flu, etc)

  30. Life expectancy at birth: • Total population: 66.35 years • male: 64.52 years female: 68.28 years (2012 est.) • Definition: This entry contains the average number of years to be lived by a group of people born in the same year, if mortality at each age remains constant in the future. The entry includes total population as well as the male and female components.

  31. Factors effecting disease pattern • Bad housing and poor environmental conditions • Inhale harmful smoke from burning wood and other fuels. • Changes in land and water use can also have a major impact on the incidence and pattern of disease . • An increase in global warming • Poverty and malnutrition

  32. The dramatic change in the causes of death STEPHEN C. SCHIMPFF, MD|PHYSICIAN| JULY 26, 2012

  33. SUMMARIZATION

  34. Any Question????

  35. References: • http://www.helsinki.fi/science/bgs/epidemiology.pdf • http://www.who.int/trade/glossary/story050/en/ • http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2805833/ • http://www.insee.fr/en/methodes/default.asp?page=definitions/pyramide-ages.htm

  36. Conti… • http://www.who.int/infectious-disease-report/pages/ch9text.html • http://www.tradingeconomics.com • http://www.lewishistoricalsociety.com/wiki/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=103

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