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Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Pew Research Center September-October, 2012

Obama vs. Romney: I t’ s the Economy Stupid?. Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Pew Research Center September-October, 2012. The American Voter. 2. Voter Turnout. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 3. Number of Independents Continues to Grow.

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Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Pew Research Center September-October, 2012

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  1. Obama vs. Romney: It’s the Economy Stupid? • Bruce Stokes • Director, Global Economic Attitudes • Pew Research Center • September-October, 2012

  2. The American Voter 2

  3. Voter Turnout SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 3

  4. Number of Independents Continues to Grow 2012 numbers calculated as of July 26 (People-Press surveys). 4

  5. Party Profiles in 2012 Whites and blacks include those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. People-Press 2012 Values survey. 5

  6. Large Partisan Divides Bars show the differences between Republicans and Democrats across 15 values indices based on related survey questions. * Environment index began in 1992, immigration index in 2002. People-Press 2012 Values survey. 6

  7. The Domestic Economy as an Electoral Issue 7

  8. Better Off “Now”? Depends on How You Define “Then” % saying their personal financial situation is excellent or good September 6, 2012 Pew Social and Demographic Trends 8

  9. Consumer Confidence and Presidential Elections Data sources: Conference Board, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Taken from Council on Foreign Relations 9

  10. Jobs and Deficit are Top Issues Based on registered voters. Certain voters are those who back Romney or Obama and say there is no chance they will support the other. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate or say there is still a chance they will support the other. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. People-Press July 9, 2012 survey. 10

  11. Public Evenly Divided over Gov’t Spending vs. Deficit Reduction * Based on registered voters. Certain voters are those who back Romney or Obama and say there is no chance they will support the other. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate or say there is still a chance they will support the other. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. People-Press June 7-17, 2012 survey. 11

  12. International Issues 12

  13. Foreign Issues Far Less Important than in 2008, 2004 Selected answers shown. Respondents were allowed to give more than one answer. Based on general public. People-Press March 2012 survey. 13

  14. More Favor Focusing Greater Attention on Problems at Home We should pay less attention to problems overseas, concentrate on problems here at home People-Press 2012 Values survey. 14

  15. The Horse Race 15

  16. Obama Maintains Campaign Lead If the election were today, would you vote for… Based on registered voters. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 16

  17. Obama Advantage by Poll Obama advantage over Romney Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Based on registered voters. Gallup results from the 11th to the 17th of each month, except for September (up to 30th). Averages are presented if more than one survey was conducted in a month, but latest results reported for Sep/Oct. Not all surveys were conducted at the same point in time. 17

  18. Obama’s September Advantage *1988 and 1992 data based on registered voters. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 18

  19. Presidential Race by Gender Men Women Romney Obama Based on registered voters. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 19

  20. Presidential Race by Age 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Based on registered voters. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 20

  21. Presidential Race by Race White non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic Hispanic Based on registered voters. Hispanic values shown only for surveys with more than 100 Hispanic respondents. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 21

  22. It’s the States, But is it the Economy? 22

  23. Votes by State Solid Romney Leaning Romney Swing Leaning Obama Solid Obama Source: NY Times election map 23

  24. Swing State Polls If the election were today, who would you vote for? Source: September 2012 polls of likely voters from The New York Times/Quinnipiac University/CBS News Poll. 24

  25. Is It the Economy? Most important issue… Who would do a better job on the economy? Source: September 2012 polls of likely voters from The New York Times/Quinnipiac University/CBS News Poll. 25

  26. The Obama Advantage 26

  27. Obama’s Advantage on Issues Based on registered voters. Figures read across, percent saying both, neither, don’t know not shown. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 27

  28. And on Personality Traits Based on registered voters. Figures read across, percent saying both, neither, don’t know not shown. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 28

  29. Obama Seen as More “Inspiring,” Romney as More “Hard to Like” Based on registered voters. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 29

  30. Candidate Favorability Candidate favorability in September Fav diff R+6D+5 D+6 D+11 R+1 D+2 D+10 Based on registered voters. 1988-2000 data from Gallup September surveys. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 309

  31. How Does Romney Win? 31

  32. Swing Voters Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they will change their mind. (N=246 on traits, N=232 on issues). Statistically significant advantages in bold. People-Press September 12-16, 2012 survey. 32

  33. All Pew Global Attitudes Project reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org

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