近來科學面對的問題

1. 第14單元：第十四講：近來科學面對的問題 近來科學面對的問題 大氣變遷 生命科學 科學競爭與倫理 科學與宗教 科學與性別 【本著作除另有註明外，採取創用CC「姓名標示－非商業性－相同方式分享」台灣2.5版授權釋出】

2. 我們的天氣怎麼了? 溫室效應,天氣變暖,冰山融解,海面升高 氣溫下降,冰河來臨 到底那一個是科學上的共識?

3. 明天過後? 還是 後天?

4. 地球變暖的徵象? Flicker: Alan Vernon.

5. 全球暖化 吐瓦魯快被淹了 【2007-03-20/聯合報/A1版/要聞】 記者(美聯社) 受到全球暖化影響，南太平洋島國吐瓦魯首都富那富提的海平面，本季上升到有史以來最高水平。漲潮時，海浪已逼近這座狹長環礁城市的住宅區。人口一萬兩千人的吐瓦魯是我邦交國，由九個珊瑚礁島組成，國土面積僅廿六平方公里。研究顯示，若全球暖化導致海平面上升一公尺，吐瓦魯將被海水淹沒。

6. News Developing nations offer hope in climate talks Amanda Haag Montreal conference is a qualified success. Nature438, 895 (15 December 2005) | doi:10.1038/438895a; Published online 14 December 2005

7. 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference

8. 地球變暖了嗎？ • 如何變暖的？ • 二氧化碳 • 為什麼是二氧化碳？

10. THE ROLES OF THE OCEAN IN CLIMATE CHANGE

11. News and ViewsNature 438, 565-566 (1 December 2005)Oceanography: The Atlantic heat conveyor slowsDetlef Quadfasel Computer simulations predict that global warming will weaken the ocean circulation tha transports heat from the tropics to higher latitudes in the North Atlantic. Such an effect has now been detected. • -------- • But how solid are these results? The findings are based on just five snapshots of the circulation, taken in 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998 and 2004, and along one latitudinal section. Higher-frequency variability (such as eddies or waves), at the ends of the section at the African coast and the Bahamas, may obscure the detection of long-term change. And the uncertainty of the estimates given is high, so the magnitude of the decline may well be smaller than suggested by the calculations. Against that, the declining trend itself is statistically significant. Also, the observed density structure of the deep waters has changed; this structure is not affected by short-term variability, and so supports Bryden and colleagues' conclusions. • ----- • Further support comes from other observations. Based on direct measurements of water flux, along with model calculations, Hansen et al.4have reported a 20% reduction in the overflow from the Nordic Seas across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge into the deep North Atlantic over the past 50 years. These overflows contribute about one-third to the overturning circulation and feed the densest part of the vertical cell — the same part in which the largest reduction of water transport was observed at 25° N. At the same time, the overflow waters and in turn the deep waters of the North Atlantic have significantly freshened5, thereby reducing the large-scale density gradient driving the overturning circulation. Nature 438, 565-566 (1 December 2005) | doi:10.1038/438565a; Published online 30 November 2005

12. Oceanography: The Atlantic heat conveyor slows FIGURE 1. The North Atlantic heat conveyor Most warm waters in the upper ocean circulate clockwise in a giant horizontal swirl in the subtropics, but some flow farther north and cross the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR). This branch warms the northern North Atlantic and Europe, and keeps most of the Nordic Seas free of ice. Here the water sinks (indicated by the star) and flows back southwards at depth, mostly down the western edge of the Atlantic basin. The Scandinavian monitoring array tracks only the northern limb of the overturning circulation, but more deep water is added south of the GSR and in the Labrador Sea (stars). The 257 N section covers all of the overturning circulation, and also includes the horizontal recirculation in the subtropics. According to Bryden and colleagues' results1, the former is weakening and the latter strengthening. Nature 438, 565-566 (1 December 2005), doi:10.1038/438565a

13. Time magazine: Sep. 25, 1995

15. 恐懼之邦　麥克·克萊頓State of Fear by Michael Crichton 博客來。本作品轉載自http://www.books.com.tw/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010291792 ，瀏覽日期2012/07/09。依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。

16. Why Politicized Science is Dangerous(Excerpted from State of Fear) I am not arguing that global warming is the same as eugenics. But the similarities are not superficial. And I do claim that open and frank discussion of the data, and of the issues, is being suppressed. Leading scientific journals have taken strong editorial positions of the side of global warming, which, I argue, they have no business doing. Under the circumstances, any scientist who has doubts understands clearly that they will be wise to mute their expression. One proof of this suppression is the fact that so many of the outspoken critics of global warming are retired professors. These individuals are not longer seeking grants, and no longer have to face colleagues whose grant applications and career advancement may be jeopardized by their criticisms. In science, the old men are usually wrong. But in politics, the old men are wise, counsel caution, and in the end are often right. But as Alston Chase put it, "when the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power." That is the danger we now face. And this is why the intermixing of science and politics is a bad combination, with a bad history. We must remember the history, and be certain that what we present to the world as knowledge is disinterested and honest.

17. Jon Chase photo/Harvard News Office Tribute to Michael Crichton 1942-2008

18. photo by Lumidek

19. HERETICAL THOUGHTS ABOUT SCIENCE AND SOCIETYBy Freeman Dyson • My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. • The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. • They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. • That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.

20. Quotes from Freeman Dyson • In the history of science it has often happened that the majority was wrong and refused to listen to a minority that later turned out to be right. [article by, 2008] • Climate change is part of the normal order of things, and we know it was happening before humans came. [interview with, 2007] • Just because you see pictures of glaciers falling into the ocean doesn't mean anything bad is happening. This is something that happens all the time. It's part of the natural cycle of things. [interview with, 2007] • It makes very little sense to believe the output of the climate models. [YouTube interview Part1] • Vegetation is really controlling what happens...whereas the emphasis in the climate models has always been on the atmosphere. [YouTube interview Part1] • There is no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the warming is not global. [essay by, 2007]

21. Quotes from Freeman Dyson • The idea that global warming is the most important problem facing the world is total nonsense and is doing a lot of harm. It distracts people's attention from much more serious problems. [interview with, 2007]The average ground temperature of the Earth is impossible to measure since most of the Earth is ocean...So this average ground temperature is a fiction. [YouTube interview Part2] • When I listen to the public debates about climate change, I am impressed by the enormous gaps in our knowledge, the sparseness of our observations and the superficiality of our theories. [essay by, 2007] • We simply don't know yet what's going to happen to the carbon in the atmosphere. [YouTube interview Part1]Computer models of the climate....[are] a very dubious business if you don't have good inputs. [YouTube interview Part1]We do not know how much of the environmental change is due to human activities and how much [is due] to long-term natural processes over which we have no control. [essay by, 2007] • It is not surprising that honest and well-informed experts can disagree about facts. But beyond the disagreement about facts, there is another deeper disagreement about values. [essay by, 2007]

22. Palaeoclimate: When the world turned cold Gabriel J. Bowen Abstract As massive ice sheets grew on Antarctica during the first major glaciation of the Cenozoic era, the northern continents cooled and dried. The coincidence in timing implies that the cause was global rather than regional. It has been nearly 34 million years since Earth was last free of large continental ice sheets. Before the beginning of the Oligocene epoch, 33.7 million years ago, Antarctica had been a lush, green continent for several tens of millions of years, and the only significant concentrations of ice on Earth probably occurred on the Antarctic highlands and in and around the Arctic Ocean. Then, in two short pulses spanning the first 300,000 years of the Oligocene, ice sheets grew over most of Antarctica1. The continent has been largely ice-covered ever since (Fig. 1). But did the severe event at high southern latitudes affect the rest of the globe? And if so, how? Elsewhere in this issue, Dupont-Nivet et al.2 and Zanazzi et al.3 describe climatic and biotic changes in central Asia and North America during the early Oligocene that implicate declining levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide as a driver for changes in both hemispheres. Nature 445, 607-608 (8 February 2007) | doi:10.1038/445607a; Published online 7 February 2007

23. FIGURE 1. The Eocene–Oligocene boundary in context. This timeline shows the transition from the warm pre-Oligocene Earth to today's icy planet that occurred at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary (33.7 million years ago), approximately midway between the extinction of the dinosaurs and today. The drying in central Asia and cooling of North America described by Dupont-Nivet et al.2 and Zanazzi et al.3 coincided with an abrupt, 300,000-year build-up of continental-scale ice sheets on Antarctica. (Graphic after ref. 1.) From article: Palaeoclimate: When the world turned cold, Gabriel J. Bowen, Nature 445, 607-608(8 February 2007)

24. NewsClimate anomaly is an artefactGlitch in the twentieth-century climate record is explained.Quirin Schiermeier • The humble bucket turns out to be at the bottom of a perplexing anomaly in the climate records for the twentieth century. • The time series of land and ocean temperature measurements, begun in 1860, shows a strange cooling of about 0.3 °C in the global mean temperature in 1945, relative to the 1961–90 average. The sharpness of the drop stands out even more if the signatures of internal climate variability, such as those associated with El Niño events, are filtered from the record. Nature 453, 569 (2008) | doi:10.1038/453569a | Published online 28 May 2008

26. 不願面對的真相，還是….不願告人的真相？ 南極冰山最近大崩塌，還是…至少六千年來一直如此?

27. H.Kieffer,et al., 2000,"New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets."EOS,Transactions, American Geophysical Union 81:265,270-71. See also R. J. Braithwaite and Y. Zhang,"Relationships between interannual variability of glacier massbalance and climate,"Journal of Glaciology 45 (2000):456-62.Joughin,I., and Tulaczyk,S., 2002,"Positive mass balance of the Ross Ice streams,West Antarctica," Science 295 : 476-80.Thompson,D.W.J., and Solomon ,S., 2002 ."Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change,"Science 296:895-99.

28. 中國時報 2007.04.12 地球太熱？我們太熱？ 江才健 聯合國設立的「跨政府氣候變遷小組」，近年發表許多地球氣候劇變的報告。雖然這些作為是近代大氣科學數據加上政治妥協的產物，但行動背後顯現出的正視人類與自然關係的思維，是可以肯定的。而近時主流的觀點，似集中於地球暖化問題，正如日前陳俊成教授在時論廣場發表的〈全球暖化：真理或迷思〉大文指出的，地球暖化的觀點確只是觀點之一端。 現今以地球暖化為主流思維的大氣科學界，在三十年前的一九七○年代，當時最重要的一個問題卻是，「地球是否要進入一個小冰河期？」 寫過《侏羅紀公園》的著名小說家克萊頓前幾年有一本小說《恐懼之邦》，是一本有趣、有見地和勇氣的文學作品。寫這一本書時，作者曾花了三年研讀科學論文資料，是建基在嚴謹科學數據上的小說，有趣的描繪出全球暖化的政治炒作現象。小說中引用科學數據指出，南極冰山融解至少已持續有六千年之久，使得美國前副總統高爾拍攝的「不願面對的真相」電影中，那些怵目驚心的南極冰山崩解畫面，顯現出聳人聽聞的用心。克萊頓撰文所說的，科學界反對全球暖化最力的，多是已經沒有研究經費壓力的退休科學家，也點出了近代科學學術的一種「不願面對的真相」。 地球暖化問題，還有範圍和時間尺度的不同思維。當今主流的大氣科學當然有許多見地，但古氣候學家則總持異議。就在今年二月間英國的《自然》期刊還登出一篇古氣候學研究的論文，這篇論文提出一些觀點，其中之一是指出近三千萬年以來，事實上是一個地球較冷的時期；三千萬年前在較暖時期的地球上，南極是一片草原覆蓋的地區。地球暖化如果是真的，也只是誰能得利的風水輪轉。 大氣科學界也應該知道，近代大氣科學常用的電腦模擬預測，有許多的困境。就以人類約一百五十年對地球溫度的測量，和近十多年地球升溫的紀錄，來論斷有四十億年（誤差也許有上億年）的地球，就好比測量一個人二十四小時的體溫，在某一秒中發覺溫度上升了○．○一度，就論斷此人一個小時後會熱死一樣。 人與自然的合諧共生，是人類不同文明共有的信仰，近代科學其實反是一個異數。前不久報紙上刊登吐瓦魯島國在南太平洋中的照片，說有被淹沒之虞，很像是八卦周刊的看照片說故事。「全球暖化」戴著科學的帽子，不啻是「曾參殺人」。（作者為《知識通訊評論》發行人）

29. Published online 30 April 2008 | 453, 15 (2008) | doi:10.1038/453015c News in BriefWarming Antarctic waters begin to cool Samples from previous expeditions showed that water at a depth of 4,500 metres in the Weddell Sea warmed by a tenth of a degree Celsius between 1989 and 2005, although the warming trend may have begun earlier. The latest work, by researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, found that temperatures have cooled slightly since 2005, suggesting that more cold surface water is reaching the deep ocean, perhaps as a result of changes in sea-ice coverage and atmospheric conditions. The team plans to revisit the region during the summer of 2010–11. Antarctica's deep ocean waters are getting colder after years of warming, say researchers who have just returned from a Southern Ocean voyage aboard the German research vessel Polarstern. Researchers on Polarstern recover a mooring Published online 30 April 2008 | Nature 453, 15 (2008) | doi:10.1038/453015c

30. Published online 24 April 2008 | Nature | doi:10.1038/453013a NewsSediment cores reveal Antarctica's warmer pastANDRILL project discovers that life at the pole wasn’t so chilly 16 million years ago.Quirin Schiermeier • A unique drilling project in the western Ross Sea has revealed that Antarctica had a much more eventful climate history than previously assumed. A new sediment core hints that the western part of the now-frozen continent went through prolonged ice-free phases — presumably offering a glimpse of where our warming world might be heading. • Researchers reported initial results from ANDRILL, a US$30-million international drilling project, on 16 April at the assembly of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna. During the past two years, the team has extracted two cores, each containing some 1,200 metres of sediment, from the seabed below the vast Ross Ice Shelf, a floating extension of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Together, the cores provide an almost uninterrupted 17-million-year record of Antarctica’s climatic past. • …………………………………. • During a warm period some 3.5 million years ago, for instance, the ice sheet may have disappeared completely for around 200,000 years, raising sea levels globally by up to 10 metres. Published online 24 April 2008 | 453, 13 (2008) | doi:10.1038/453013a

31. Antarctica had a climate similar to that found today on the South Island of New Zealand and in southern Patagonia.

32. NewsNature449, 382-383 (27 September 2007) | doi:10.1038/449382a; Published online 26 September 2007Chemists poke holes in ozone theoryReaction data of crucial chloride compounds called into question Abstract Reaction data of crucial chloride compounds called into question. As the world marks 20 years since the introduction of the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer, Nature has learned of experimental data that threaten to shatter established theories of ozone chemistry. If the data are right, scientists will have to rethink their understanding of how ozone holes are formed and how that relates to climate change…………………. So Markus Rex, an atmosphere scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute of Polar and Marine Research in Potsdam, Germany, ------------------------------- This must have far-reaching consequences," Rex says. "If the measurements are correct we can basically no longer say we understand how ozone holes come into being." Nature 449, 382-383 (27 September 2007) | doi:10.1038/449382a; Published online 26 September 2007

34. Published online 12 August 2009 | Nature 460, 792-795 (2009) | doi:10.1038/460792aNews FeatureAtmospheric science: Fixing the skyWhen nations made plans to save the ozone layer, they didn't factor in global warming. Quirin Schiermeier reports on how two environmental problems complicate each other. 現代女媧補天 • 人類科學自七〇年代開始關注臭氧層破洞問題，而最近又發現到，全球暖化與南極臭氧破洞有交互的影響，這顯現出地球這一複雜巨大體系，是遷一髮而全身動，要窺其全貌並非易事。  Published online 12 August 2009 | Nature 460, 792-795 (2009) | doi:10.1038/460792a 《知識通訊評論》專題報導　09/01/2009

35. 生命科學 科學競爭與倫理

36. 黃禹錫的爭議研究 Stem-cell pioneer accused of faking data

39. Genomics: The dog has its day

40. 12February2004 Landmark paperWoo Suk Hwang from Seoul National University in South Korea and colleagues announced that they have cloned 30 human embryos and harvested stem cells from one of them (W. S. Hwang et al. Science303, 1669-1674; 2004). The work makes headlines worldwide, as a step towards stem-cell therapies for diseases such as Parkinson's. Other groups have claimed to clone human embryos, but the supporting evidence has been sketchy. This success will also need further supporting evidence. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

41. May2004 Ethical questionsQuestions are raised about ethical practices in Hwang's work after investigations by Nature. It appears that some of the eggs may have come from junior members of the research team. This is potentially problematic because obtaining human eggs is painful and risky. Hwang denies any wrongdoing, but says that he will suspend his research until a new national bioethics law comes into effect in the new year. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

42. 22May2004 The annual meeting of the Korean Bioethics Association calls on Hwang and a review board to answer questions about funding sources and the recruitment of egg donors. The association wants the National Human Rights Commission, an independent investigative body funded by the government, to pursue the case. But the commission's bioethics task force was not intended to investigate specific research projects. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

43. 01January2005 South Korean bioethics law comes into effect. 13January2005 The South Korean government approves Hwang's embryonic stem cell research. It is the first approval issued under the nation's new bioethics law. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

44. 19May2005 Landmark paperHwang's team at the Seoul National University in South Korea reports it has established 11 embryonic stem-cell lines derived from the skin cells of individual patients (W. S. Hwang et al. Science308, 1777-1783; 2005). The experiment is hailed as a huge step towards the medical use of person-specific cell lines. It also backs up the embryo-cloning claims in the team's February 2004 paper. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

45. 03August2005 Cloned dogHwang and colleagues announce the first cloned dog - Snuppy, an Afghan hound (Lee B. C. et al. Nature436, 641; 2005). Some scientists hail his birth as a feat of ingenuity and perseverance, others question its value. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

47. 19October2005 South Korea's government launches the World Stem Cell Hub, an international network for exchanging embryonic stem-cell lines and cloning technology. Hwang is to be its head. October2005 Hwang resumes research, ending his voluntary suspension of activities. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

48. 10November2005 According to Science, Gerald Schatten, a biologist at the University of Pittsburgh and co-author of the May 2005 Science paper, alerts them to Korean press reports alleging that researcher Sun Il Roh has illegally traded ova. Schatten reassures Science that "none of the oocytes used in Professor Hwang's '04 or '05 Science papers were obtained from reimbursed women donors." Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

49. 11November2005 According to Science, Schatten tells them he has stopped working with Hwang, because he believes Hwang misrepresented facts about consent issues related to the 2004 paper. Science asks Hwang to inform them of any concerns regarding his research. Hwang says he is looking into the matter. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3

50. Mistake in the 2005 paper The 2005 paper's authors provide Science with corrections to data in the paper's table 2, which are not thought to significantly alter the work's conclusions. The corrected table is published 12November2005 Schatten publicly cuts all ties to Hwang and his team at Seoul National University. Timeline of a controversy Published online 19 December 2005 | Nature | oi:10.1038/news051219-3