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Risk Acceptability. Safe does not necessarily mean ‘free from risk’. Most Risks have Associated Benefits. “Acceptable risk is the risk associated with the best of available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”.

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Risk acceptability
Risk Acceptability

Safe does not necessarily mean ‘free from risk’

Session 21



“Acceptable risk is the risk associated with the best of available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

Source: Derby, Stephen L., and Ralph L. Keeney, 1981.

Session 21


Factors that determine risk acceptability
Factors that Determine Risk Acceptability available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

  • Personal

  • Political / Social

  • Economic

Session 21


Injustices
Injustices available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

  • The process of determining the acceptability of risk can be influenced by those with money and vested interests.

  • Setting a dollar figure (in cost-benefit analyses) on a human life is considered by many to be unethical and unconscionable.

  • Risk management is usually an undemocratic process, as those who may be harmed are not identified or asked if the danger is acceptable to them.

Session 21


Risk acceptability assessment methods
Risk Acceptability Assessment Methods available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

  • “No Go” Alternative

  • Accept the Risk

  • Establish a “De Minimis Risk” Level

  • Establish a “De Manifestis Risk” Level

  • Perform a Cost-Benefit Analysis

  • Perform Cost Effectiveness

  • Choose the Best Choice Among Alternatives

Session 21


Derby and keeney s 5 steps
Derby and Keeney’s 5 Steps available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

  • Define the alternatives

  • Specify the objectives and measures of effectiveness to indicate the degree to which they are achieved

  • Identify the possible consequences of each alternative

  • Quantify the values for the various consequences

  • Analyze the alternatives to select the best choice

Source: Derby and Keeney, 1981

Session 21


Example a
Example A available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

COST

  • K

  • L

*M

0

0 RISK

Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.

Session 21


Example b
Example B available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

COST

Minimum Risk

  • K

Minimum Cost

  • L

0

0 RISK

Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.

Session 21


Example c
Example C available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

COST

*M

  • K

  • L

*

0

0 RISK

Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.

Session 21


Example d
Example D available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”

COST

Case 1

  • K

  • L

Case 2

0

0 RISK

Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.

Session 21


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