GE 541 Lecture 10

1. GE 541 Lecture 10 Air Pollution: Policies & Implementation

2. Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act of 1965 3 Major Revisions - 1970 - 1977 and - 1990 Amendments

3. 3 Different Approaches A. National technology mandates on auto manufacturers (Emission Control Systems) and oil companies (Market Cleaner Funds) B. Mandates on state governments to curb motorist’s auto use & maintain emission control systems in working order C. Requirements that transport infrastructure investments be consistent with NAAQS.

4. Policies have achieved important successes Between 1970 & 1995 VMT doubled, but all auto emissions declined on a vehicle mile basis Ambient air quality has improved in SMSAs

5. Still Air Quality still a challenge EPA has new standards for ozone and particulate matter Also GHG issue

6. An assessment of the effectiveness of these policies Have all three elements of US strategy contributed to effectiveness

7. Overall Strategy:1. Successful 2. Changing personal behavior? 3. Useful

8. Impacts of Air Pollutants Ozone - lung tissues & functions PM - respiratory problems CO - O2 delivery to blood Lead - affects major organs, especially in children Nox - lungs & respiratory functions

9. Regulatory Standards National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) - set exclusively on the basis of their effects on human health, permitting CB considerations, among others, to come into play only in the choice of policies to achieve the health- based standards. EPA periodically reviews the standards. Ozone & PM standards reviewed in 1997.

10. Total Vehicle Miles Traveled and Highway Vehicle Emissions, 1970 - 95

11. Great Success Between 1970 & 1996 Lead Emissions  by 98% CO  by 31% VOC  by 38% However, Agg. Nox  by 8% (declined on per mile basis) Particulates  by 137%

12. Non Attainment Areas 1990 1997 92 (ozone) 59 (ozone) 42 (CO) 28 (CO)

13. Vehicle Miles  more than 100% (1970 - 95%) Between 1970 - 95 CO emissions  39% by VMT 72% Nox  0.9%  55% PM  34%  70% Lead  99.9% > 99.9%

14. Percentage Change in Transportation Emissions for Selected Major Metropolitan Areas, 1985 - 94

15. Every SMSA has benefited in the 1985 - 94 era

16. Federal Emission Standards for Passenger Cars(grams per mile)

17. Gasoline Cars (1994 standards) designed to meet 1994 standards, emit 97% less HC 96% less CO 88% less Nox 73% less PM than the uncontrolled vehicles prior to 1960s cars

18. Technology - Forcing Strategy - Mass production of catalytic converters - 50,000 mile useful lives - Auto industry resistant this pace - Adjustments made

19. However, many SMSAs could not meet NAAQS under 1977 amendments 1990 amendments enacted under Bush I (Reagan government objected)

20. 1990 Act - a new round of emissions reductions 1990 law (like its predecessors) authorized California to impose stricter standards Emissions < than Tier 1 (1990 law) Zero emission vehicles by 1998, 10% market share by 2003. Other states can opt out for California standards California standards for 40% of auto market

21. National Low Emitting Vehicles (NLEV) Recent push for hybrid & electric vehicles

22. Fuel Standards 1990 act banning lead by 1995 also ‘oxygenated’ fuel in winter to reduce CO in NAAs and ‘reformulated’ gasoline in summer to reduce HC

23. A small number of firms targeted - significant change in product technology Sound and fury - litigation & negotiation Job loss & inflation vs. improved air quality

24. Cost Effectiveness of Technology Measures in Reducing Hydrocarbon Emissions(dollars)

25. Early control efforts highly cost effective - also gasoline reformulations California cars and alternative vehicles - higher costs for them Experimental technologies different

26. Changing driver behavior Reducing use difficult Vehicle maintenance progress - better success

27. Transportation Controls - Parking supply restrictions - Taxes & surcharges on parking - Downtown access restrictions - Mandatory I & M for emission control devices - Retrofit of vechiles with control devices

28. Such policies highly controversial Many states refused to submit transport control plans EPA developed plans for 19 SMSAs (that had policies many states would not buy) Difficulty in implementing such policies

29. Congress enacted amendments restricting EPA’s authority to use price-based policies (road user tolls & parking surchages) EPA abandoned Federal Control Plans

30. 1990 Act gave states latitude in drawing up implementation plans - but had two penalties Two Sanctions: - Denial of Federal Highway Aid - Imposition of stricter new-source offset requirements Threat of funds loss if transportation plans inconsistent with air quality

31. 1990 Act strengthened by 1991 ISTEA (Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act) ISTEA provided core financial support & provided institutional processes to achieve them The balance between regulatory ambitions and economic - technical realism (1990 act) reinforced by ISTEA

32. 1. Employee Commute Option Program - initially mandatory, later voluntary 2. I & M Program But nobody wanted to try congestion pricing demonstration program

33. Behavioral Change Policy Difficult to sustain viable threats against non-compliance Voluntary programs (ride-sharing, telecommuting, improved transit, compressed work week) - here some compliance

34. Cost-Effectiveness of Transportation Control Measures in Reducing Hydrocarbon Emissions (dollars)