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Understanding Emerging Events: Reading and Reasoning T hrough S imulation

Understanding Emerging Events: Reading and Reasoning T hrough S imulation. Andrei Barbu, Gary Borchardt and Boris Katz MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory July 8, 2014. A scenario. The Freedom Brigade carried out 7 kidnappings in 2013.

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Understanding Emerging Events: Reading and Reasoning T hrough S imulation

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  1. Understanding Emerging Events:Reading and Reasoning Through Simulation Andrei Barbu, Gary Borchardt and Boris Katz MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory July 8, 2014

  2. A scenario The Freedom Brigade carried out 7 kidnappings in 2013. The Freedom Brigade has expressed a dislike of Trifex Corporation. Recently-intercepted communications from the Freedom Brigade suggest a possible attack Thursday evening. Philippe Henson is an executive at Trifex Corporation. Philippe Henson recently hired a new security detail. Philippe Henson's financial situation has drastically deteriorated. Philippe Henson typically visits his cousin Olmert Lee on Thursdays. It is 4:00pm Thursday, and Olmert Lee claims Philippe Henson is missing. There has been a 10-hour power outage in Philippe Henson's neighborhood.

  3. Multiple levels of abstraction Narratives Plans Routines Actions Events Changes States Attributes Objects Times An update regarding the Freedom Brigade Different ways of carrying out kidnappings Philippe Henson typically visits Olmert Lee on Thursdays. Philippe Henson recently hired a new security detail. A 10-hour power outage in Philippe Henson's neighborhood Deterioration of Philippe Henson's financial situation At 4:00pm Thursday, Philippe Henson is missing. Location, financial situation, dislike, employment The Freedom Brigade, Philippe Henson, a neighborhood 4:00pm Thursday, Thursday evening

  4. Progress from our ICArUS effort Narratives Plans Routines Actions Events Changes States Attributes Objects Times Reported actions and events

  5. Envisioning in support of plan recognition reported actions postulated plan executions Plan Recognition traveling to a location placing/retrieving an object meeting someone giving an object building/detonating an IED making a phone call raising an alert threatening someone IED attack smuggling robbery kidnapping Envisioning

  6. Language-motivated representation . . . Actions Events Changes States Attributes Objects Times appear not appear for Boolean attributes disappear not disappear for qualitative attributes change not change not increase increase for quantitative attributes decrease not decrease position of an object heading of an object being an instance of a type being a part of an object possession of an object by a human use of an object by a human interaction between two humans control of a human by a human being afraid being an instance of a type being a part of an object position of an object speed of an object heading of an object distance between two objects possession of an object by a human use of an object by a human interaction between two humans control of a human by a human being afraid speed of an object distance between two objects

  7. Event models

  8. An IED attack Agent-1 meets Agent-2 at Location-1. Agent-1 meets Agent-2 at Location-1. Agent-1 gives IED-1 to Agent-2. Agent-1 gives IED-1 to Agent-2. 0.25 0.5 Agent-2 retrieves Explosive-Materials-1 from Location-5. Agent-2 retrieves Explosive-Materials-1 from Location-5. Agent-2 travels to Location-9. Agent-2 travels to Location-9. Agent-2 builds IED-1 using Explosive-Materials-1. Agent-2 builds IED-1 using Explosive-Materials-1. Agent-2 travels to Location-7. Agent-2 travels to Location-7. start 0.5 Agent-2 makes a phone call. Agent-2 makes a phone call. 0.5 0.25 Agent-2 meets Agent-3 at Location-7. Agent-2 meets Agent-3 at Location-7. Agent-2 meets Agent-3 at Location-7. Agent-2 meets Agent-3 at Location-7. Agent-2 gives IED-1 to Agent-3. Agent-2 gives IED-1 to Agent-3. Agent-2 gives IED-1 to Agent-3. Agent-2 gives IED-1 to Agent-3. Agent-3 travels to Location-3. Agent-3 travels to Location-3. Agent-3 places IED-1 at Location-3. Agent-3 places IED-1 at Location-3. Agent-3 places IED-1 at Location-3. Agent-3 places IED-1 at Location-3. 0.5 0.5 Agent-3 detonates IED-1. Agent-3 detonates IED-1. Agent-3 detonates IED-1. Agent-3 detonates IED-1. 0.5 Agent-3 makes a phone call. Agent-3 makes a phone call. Agent-3 makes a phone call. Agent-3 makes a phone call. IED-1 self-detonates. IED-1 self-detonates. IED-1 self-detonates. IED-1 self-detonates. 0.5 end

  9. Envisioning two simultaneous event occurrences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  10. Envisioning two sequential event occurrences Hypothesized • Agent-15 retrieves IED-11 from Location-15 from 11:10 to 11:20. • Agent-15 builds IED-11 using Explosive-Material-11 from 11:30 to 11:40. Conflicts Detected • In the second event, IED-11 does not initially exist, whereas at the end of the first event, it does. • In the second event, Agent-15 is not initially in possession of the IED, whereas at the end of the first event, Agent-15 is in possession of the IED.

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