TAKING CHINA TO COURT & ITS POLITICO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS

TAKING CHINA TO COURT& ITS POLITICO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS Dr. Le Trung Tinh Dr. Le Vinh Truong Toulouse, July August 2014

Plan • Southeast Asian Sea – the setting • Persistent negotiations • Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon in international affairs • Taking China to court and/or War • Political impacts from initiating a lawsuit against China • China’s economic reprisals • Conclusions

1. Southeast Asian Sea – the setting • 19/01/1974: Source: http://vnexpress.net/

2012, 300 fishermen in Quang Ngaiseized by China • 2013, China changedfromarrestingintochasing, shooting, rammingVietnamesefishingboats, destroyingfishing instruments, equipment and boats of Vietnamesefishermen • 2014, «Measuresfor implementingChineseFishery Law of Hainan Province" Vietnamese fishing boat burnt by Chinese on 20 March 2013

Source: http://www.straight.com • Haiyang Shiyou-981 (HY-981)

Protect HY-981: protective vessels  attacked ships of Vietnamese functional forces by water cannons • Source: TuoiTre

2. Persistent negotiations? Source: http://www.baomoi.com

Source: Huy Duong and Tuan Pham, Nautilus Institute • Disadvantage: - Offensive (oil rigs, airplanes, warships) - Devised plans (cutting off cables of Binh Minh 2, introducing U-shaped line, printing U-shaped line in passport…)  Negotiation: Vietnam  concession unprofitable solution for international support

Advantage (?): mild mitigation of China’s encroachment (Ex: COC) >< Vietnam: trade off economic, political concessions  Negotiation: Regrettable solution

3. Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon in international affairs Liberalism vs. Realism Source: http://rcsinvestments.files.wordpress.com

Vietnam (small country): make advantage of values from Liberalism (UNCLOS 1982, UN Charter, Int’ Court of Justice, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) • Dissuasion weapon  preventing tensions to war • “Persistence in peaceful negotiation”, “16 Golden Words”, “4 Goods”  not belong to any school of int’ relations intimidation, arrangement

Suggestion: initiate a lawsuit • HY-981  International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (German)/ International Court of Justice (Netherlands)/ court established in accordance with UNCLOS procedure as in the measure taken by the Philippines • Dispute over Paracel archipelago  International Court of Justice Source: http://www.itlos.org

http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140125-tren-15000-ngan-chu-ky-vi-hoang-sa-goi-den-lien-hiep-quochttp://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140125-tren-15000-ngan-chu-ky-vi-hoang-sa-goi-den-lien-hiep-quoc

http://www.boxitvn.net/bai/26708 • Lê Trung Tĩnh, Nguyễn Quang A • Thứ Hai ngày 26/5/2014, Thư yêu cầu lãnh đạo Việt Nam đưa Trung Quốc ra tòa đã được gửi đến ba nhà lãnh đạo của Việt Nam: ông Trương Tấn Sang, ông Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, và ông Nguyễn Sinh Hùng. http://boxitvn.blogspot.fr/2014/06/ung-nen-lay-viec-kien-ra-mac-ca.html Đừngnênlấyviệckiện ra mặccả

4. Taking China to court and/or War Source: http://projectdoorway.files.wordpress.com

4.1. Persistent negotiation  potential risks of war • Maintain protest at sea by fisheries surveillance vessels  armed conflicts at sea • Localized attacks  pressure, fright  Vietnam: either surrender or counterattack  war

4.2. War would not help solving dispute • War  unlikely to help settle dispute thoroughly (from history: 1974, 1979, 1988…) • Legal means  each party: fair, free to use tools (reasoning, evidences), judgment: rational, clear-cut, public, enjoy international recognition • War crimes + sufferings

4.3. War erases history • Each party distorts related history for its sake  heroic, pathetic images • Decades  disillusioned  hope no war 4.4. Lawsuit as means of war prevention

5. Political impacts from initiating a lawsuit against China • New manner of response to China • Free from China’s politico-economic influence • Enhance mutual understanding, reconciliation among Vietnamese people • Vietnamese: get access to universal values  request justice

6. China’s possible immediate & short-term economic reprisals • Block some imports from Vietnam for some period of time (Ex: Philippines) Source: http://www.ecvv.com

7. Long-term macro-economic reprisals related to trade balance, cooperation, investment • Short term: affect Vietnamese people’s living • Medium, long term:  solve weaknesses, free from China’s shade  more equitable partners (U.S., EU…)

8. China’s possible economic reprisals in long term • Not easy / ready for China to take economic reprisals (Ex: Philippines, Vietnam’s approval of Law on Vietnamese Sea 21/06/2012) • Economic ties among countries  globally monitored, criticized if “unreasonable” and prolonged

9. Conclusion • Initiate a lawsuit against China: • civilized action • Active form of foreign relations, effective solution of war prevention • Create positive political impacts • Dealing with economic reprisals  Short term: some difficulties  Long term: solve problems, weaknesses in economic relations with China

THANK YOU

TAKING CHINA TO COURT & ITS POLITICO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS