1 / 33

September 6, 2007

Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) Modeling of Policy Proposals. September 6, 2007. Policy Proposals. Policy Proposals. Policy Proposals. Portfolio Scenarios. Illinois GHG Emissions – Reference Case. Illinois Electricity Sales.

kendall
Download Presentation

September 6, 2007

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Illinois Governor Rod R. BlagojevichClimate Change Advisory Group(ICCAG)Modeling of Policy Proposals September 6, 2007

  2. Policy Proposals ICF International

  3. Policy Proposals ICF International

  4. Policy Proposals ICF International

  5. Portfolio Scenarios ICF International

  6. Illinois GHG Emissions – Reference Case ICF International

  7. Illinois Electricity Sales ICF International

  8. Contribution to Change in Sales 2005-2020 ICF International

  9. Illinois Electricity Generation ICF International

  10. Contribution to Generation Growth 2005-2020 ICF International

  11. Effects on Coal Generation • Change in each case between 2005 and 2020: • Change from Reference Case in 2020: • Note: Values “outside” of Illinois should are not calibrated to same degree as for Illinois. ICF International

  12. Effects on Coal Generation: 2020 Relative to Reference Case: • Note: Clean coal generation increases in each policy scenario to approximately 13,400 GWh annually by 2020. • Note: Illinois remains a net exporter of power under all three scenarios. • “All In” Except Cap & Trade: (IL-05-00) • Illinois total generation increases by 10.4%; coal generation increases by 13.6% (conventional coal generation is identical to the Reference Case) • “All In” With Cap & Trade: (IL-10-00) • Generation in Illinois declines by 9.3%; coal generation decreases by 22.2% (conventional coal generation decreases by 36%) • “All In” With Cap & Trade + RGGI: (IL-11-00) • Generation in Illinois increases by 6.1%; coal generation increases by 10.8% (3% decreases in conventional coal) ICF International

  13. Illinois GHG Emissions (Offsets shown as lines) ICF International

  14. Change in GHG Emissions (excluding offsets) ICF International

  15. Illinois GHG Emissions - with Policies • For modeling purposes: • Revenues generated from the Cap & Trade scenario are assumed to go into general state revenue • Offsets are assumed to occur within the state and are above and beyond the “direct” reductions • Allowances are assumed to be purchased from out-of-state sources ICF International

  16. Illinois GHG Emissions (including offsets) ICF International

  17. GHG Policy Impact Outside of Illinois • Note: Values “outside” of Illinois are not calibrated to same degree as for Illinois. • Out-of-state allowances impact emissions outside of Illinois. • “All In” except C&T includes new renewables and energy efficiency that displace fossil generation both inside and outside Illinois. • Addition of Cap & Trade does not have a major impact on emissions outside of Illinois • Link with RGGI results in GHG reduction outside of Illinois in addition to in-state decrease. ICF International

  18. Change in Emissions – by Sector and Region (excluding offsets) • Change (in 2020) from Reference Case (Mt CO2e) ICF International

  19. Change in Emissions – by Sector and Region (excluding offsets) • While out of state reductions are beneficial from a global perspective, they are not counted as part of in-state inventories. • Out-of-state allowances and offsets could be counted towards in-state targets. • All in except C&T - Total reduction 2.1x greater than in-state reduction. • All in with C&T – Total reduction 1.02 x greater than in-state reduction (more of total reduction occurs in-state) • With link to RGGI – total reductions ~1.8x in-state reduction. • In all cases, N.A. reduction of approximately 80 Mt CO2e ICF International

  20. Electricity Rate Impact • Residential electricity rates rise in all policy cases relative to the Reference Case. • Cost increase greater with addition of Cap & Trade, but impact reduced by RGGI link. • Rate impact declines over period. • While rates rise, the cost of electricity or average bill for residential households declines. • Average electricity use per household declines due to increased levels of energy efficiency. ICF International

  21. Electricity Bill Impact • Average household electricity costs begin to decline in 2008 relative to the Reference Case • Approximate annual savings by 2020: • Households: ~1.1 billion on BAU base of 5.5 billion • Commercial: ~1.3 billion on BAU base of 4.3 billion • Industrial: ~0.7 billion on BAU base of 4.3 billion ICF International

  22. Carbon Trading – Illinois Permit Costs • Carbon trading costs rise to just over $18 per tonne by 2020 under the proposed Cap & Trade policy. • Link with RGGI limits carbon trading costs to assumed price for RGGI; enabling lower cost compliance. • Higher compliance cost reflected in greater reduction in Illinois emissions (slide 13). ICF International

  23. Economic Impacts of Policy Portfolios • All policies positively impact state employment ICF International

  24. Employment Changes by Sector • Employment impacts differ by sector: (overall impact < 1%) • Only traditional power sector sees decline, with shift in employment to new power plant construction (i.e. wind, CCS, etc.) and DSM programs • Impact on mining very slightly negative in early years (< 0.1%) then positive in later years • Overall there is an increase in employment, with largest benefit in the commercial, industrial and construction sectors. ICF International

  25. Economic Impacts of Policy Portfolios • Impact on Gross State Product positive for all policies • GSP increases by ~0.5% by 2010 and continues to grow ICF International

  26. Economic Impacts of Policy Portfolios • Real Personal Income increases over the entire period. ICF International

  27. High Price Scenario • High oil/gas price scenario results in 2020 emissions 16 Mt lower than Reference Case in 2020. • All policies (including Cap & Trade) implemented in context of high oil/gas prices result in 2020 emission of 229 Mt CO2e (2 Mt below target). • All other sectors lower in high price case. ICF International

  28. High Price Scenario • Illinois electricity sales ~1% higher in high price scenario. • Illinois generation lower relative to Reference case. • Largest decrease occurs in Gas/Oil generation. • Coal generation unaffected. ICF International

  29. GHG Emissions in Expected and High Price Scenarios ICF International

  30. Illinois GHG Emissions including High Price Scenarios • High oil/gas price scenario results in 2020 emissions 16 Mt lower than Reference Case in 2020. • All policies (including Cap & Trade) implemented in context of high oil/gas prices result in 2020 emission of: • 229 Mt CO2e (2 Mt below target) • Only 4 Mt lower than “All In with C&T” (IL-10-00) – some of reductions occur in response to higher prices. • All other sectors lower in high price case. ICF International

  31. High Price Scenario ICF International

  32. Policy Impact in High Price Scenario ICF International

  33. Questions? ICF International

More Related