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Predicting Movie Box Office Performance. Alex Larson ECE 539 Fall 2013. Reasons to Predict & Goal. Movies are a large part of today’s culture Movies are expensive to make Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics. Data Collection.

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Predicting movie box office performance

Predicting Movie Box Office Performance

Alex Larson

ECE 539

Fall 2013


Reasons to predict goal
Reasons to Predict & Goal

  • Movies are a large part of today’s culture

  • Movies are expensive to make

  • Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics


Data collection
Data Collection

  • Movie statistics available online on various websites

  • Random samples of top movies from recent years

  • Sample data from the-numbers.com


Features and classes
Features and Classes

  • Release Month

  • Distributor

  • Genre

  • MPAA Rating (G, PG, etc…)

  • Is Sequel? (Y/N)

  • 3 Classes based on Gross in release Year

  • Gross < $49,000,000

  • $49,000,000 < Gross < $91,000,000

  • $91,000,00 < Gross


Results so far
Results So far

  • Initial results: poor low classification rate

  • Reevaluated data

    • Removed various outliers

    • Limit to top Distributors/Studios

    • Simplified genre classification



Results so far2
Results So far

  • Correctly Predicted for 2013:

    • Iron Man 3

    • Hunger Games

    • Oblivion

  • Incorrectly Predicted for 2013:

    • Gravity

    • After Earth

    • The Internship


Possible improvements
Possible Improvements

  • Refine features more, add more features like budge, director, lead actors

  • Try with different combination of features


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