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Predicting Movie Box Office Performance. Alex Larson ECE 539 Fall 2013. Reasons to Predict & Goal. Movies are a large part of today’s culture Movies are expensive to make Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics. Data Collection.

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predicting movie box office performance

Predicting Movie Box Office Performance

Alex Larson

ECE 539

Fall 2013

reasons to predict goal
Reasons to Predict & Goal
  • Movies are a large part of today’s culture
  • Movies are expensive to make
  • Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics
data collection
Data Collection
  • Movie statistics available online on various websites
  • Random samples of top movies from recent years
  • Sample data from the-numbers.com
features and classes
Features and Classes
  • Release Month
  • Distributor
  • Genre
  • MPAA Rating (G, PG, etc…)
  • Is Sequel? (Y/N)
  • 3 Classes based on Gross in release Year
  • Gross < $49,000,000
  • $49,000,000 < Gross < $91,000,000
  • $91,000,00 < Gross
results so far
Results So far
  • Initial results: poor low classification rate
  • Reevaluated data
    • Removed various outliers
    • Limit to top Distributors/Studios
    • Simplified genre classification
results so far2
Results So far
  • Correctly Predicted for 2013:
    • Iron Man 3
    • Hunger Games
    • Oblivion
  • Incorrectly Predicted for 2013:
    • Gravity
    • After Earth
    • The Internship
possible improvements
Possible Improvements
  • Refine features more, add more features like budge, director, lead actors
  • Try with different combination of features
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