Is the Future flat?

1. Is the Future flat? Paul Kafno hdthames@easynet.co.uk

2. Content, Distribution, Displays

3. Challenges for the next 10 years • The shift to digital • Making money (surviving) in a crowded marketplace. • Understanding what new technology brings to the party – threats as well as opportunities • Having a real vision of TV viewers today • Having a new vision of content and how it is created.

4. Agenda • High Definition Television • Interactivity • Cross Media Content • Interactive Storytelling. • New ways of creating content.

5. Viewing figures flat? • Last year in the UK viewers in Sky digital households watched more satellite than terrestrial TV for the first time. • BARB reports non-terrestrial had a record 51% compared with 49% in 2003. • BBC’s main channels fell to an all-time low – 25% for BBC1, BBC” lost 9%. • BBC4 and ITV2 together got 2.1% (compared to 2.3% UK Gold)

6. Technology seen as a Threat • Many competing channels – terrestrial, satellite, cable, broadband • Personal Digital Recorders and TIVO-type devices let viewers skip commercials. • DVDs offer perceivably better image quality than most digital services. • Computers can display better images than analogue TV.

7. What’s wrong? • Young people are watching less television and spending more time on the Internet and computer games. • Old people increasingly feel that there is “nothing for them” as broadcasters have tried to capture the elusive “young” audiences. • Even Sky’s movie channel is down – only sports is on the up.

8. So… • Broadcasters are looking for new ways to grab their audience and “immerse” them in the way that computer and console games do. • That means interactivity – getting audiences to lean forward. • They need new content at affordable prices.

9. Bye bye “box” in the corner

10. Immersivity 1 – Hullo, big flat screen

11. The big screen sales story • LCD screen sales 2001 15,700 • Plasma sales 16,300 • Rear Projection 157,500 • LCD screen sales 2002 103,400 • Plasma sales 70,600 • Rear Projection 198,500 • LCD screen sales 2003 742,500 • Plasma sales 218,700 • Rear Projection 256,000 Sales volume in Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Austria. Source: The Economist Summer 2004

12. Bigger screens need better pictures • DVDs already code better pictures than most domestic TVs can show. • Computer Games on computers are generated synthetically and give terrific quality. • The answer appears to be High Definition Television. • HD marketing offers a new “wow” factor

13. Immersivity 2 – HD. What is it? • System gives better pictures than we have now – usually 4 times as much detail. • Generally a wide screen (16:9) format • An electronic format that originated in the Japanese desire to overtake 35mm film. • International standards’ battles in the eighties and nineties prevented a world standard emerging. • FCC’s decision to go digital has forced USA networks into line. • But there are may competing standards. • However, consumers seem to like it.

14. Why HD now? • Manufacturers need to sell new display products • Broadcasters need something new to hook viewers • TV pictures have to compete with digital images from DVDs and computer games. • Interactive services need more text – therefore better screen quality to show it • Domestic screens are getting flatter, slimmer and bigger – 35inch plus in Europe

15. A new dimension to viewing

16. The international market wants HD • USA increasingly demands delivery of programmes in HD (generally 1080:25) • Datamonitor predicts 4.6 million HD users in Europe by 2008, Germany, UK and France leading, with Italy fourth. Sky intends to launch a service. • BBC has made a commitment to producing all its programmes in HD

17. Importance of TV sales to the UK Economy

18. In What Form?

19. Datamonitor predictions • 4.6 million HDTV homes in Europe by 2008 • Germany, UK, France and Italy will lead • Average price of an HDTV set in Europe currently $4,900 • MPEG-4 will win against Media 9 • Take-up will be slow because of cost of receivers and shortage of programme material.

20. Unbeatable co.uk • Instock HDTV Products • CodeProductAvailabilityPriceFreeview LCD TV122194JVC LT26D50BJ 26" Freeview Widescreen LCD Television In Stock £1,099.99 122521JVC LT32D50BJ 32" LCD Television + DRM10 DVD Recorder In Stock £1,799.99 LCD Television Packages800486Philips 32PF9986 32" Widescreen LCD Television (with Table Top Stand) + DVDR610 DVD Recorder In Stock £2,099.98 800528Philips 32PF9986 32" Widescreen LCD Television (with Table Top Stand) + DVDR630VR DVD Recorder In Stock £2,189.98 800504Philips 32PF9986 32" Widescreen LCD Television (with Table Top Stand) + DVDR520H In Stock £2,259.98 800521Philips 32PF9986 32" Widescreen LCD Television (with Table Top Stand) + DVDR725H In Stock £2,369.98 Plasma Monitor with Built-in Analogue TV Tuner120207Sony KEP42M1 42" Plasma Television (Black) In Stock £2,277.99 Plasma Monitor with Separate Freeview Tuner121650Pioneer PDP435XDE 43" Freeview Plasma Television In Stock £3,199.99 121649Pioneer PDP505XDE 50" Freeview Plasma Television In Stock £4,999.99 Widescreen LCD TV118595LG RZ17LZ40 17" LCD Television In Stock £469.99 121839Sony KLVL23M1S 23" Widescreen LCD Television (Silver) In Stock £773.99 121909Toshiba 32WL48 32" LCD Television In Stock £1,349.99 121249Philips 32PF9986 32" Widescreen LCD Television (with Table Top Stand) In Stock £1,999.98

21. The feel-good factor • HD is a great production medium for the creative team. • Terrific picture detail – acquired images often seem like 3D because the rendering of surfaces is so accurate. Almost tactile quality to pictures. • Much improved colour. • Widescreen. • Looks terrific on cinema-sized screens –good for e-cinema alternative content.

22. The Creative Challenge • HD pictures have a different quality to even the best film. The effect is often thought to be 3D. • Stability of the image gives a unique way of communicating texture. • Directors frame differently – they can spend longer on wide shots • Editing is different. • The viewer experience is more immersive.

23. The feel-not-quite-so-good factor • Need for greater TX bandwidth. • Compression therefore during acquisition, post-production and distribution. • Conflicts between proprietary compression protocols. • Some curious visual effects. • Will the end result really that be impressive on a domestic screen? Will we really be seeing HD?

24. Some Negative Business Questions • Does picture quality really matter to the viewer? • Isn’t TV all about content? • Aren’t HD displays too expensive? • How many homes have space for a big display? • Won’t pirates be able to pinch high quality images from the screen? • Isn’t it hard enough to persuade viewers to sign up to SD digital?

25. Some Positive Business Questions • Differentiation is a well-established competitive strategy. Shouldn’t TV come in a range of qualities like soap powders? • Product Cycle? Is the standard def “cash cow” declining. Is HD the replacement? • Something new? Doesn’t TV need a new “wow” factor to sell itself?

26. If we produce in HD can we deliver it to the viewer? • Compression everywhere – at acquisition, post-production, distribution. • TX multiplexes already deliver variable quality with standard definition TV. Will this get worse with HD? • Digital modems need constant rebooting. Won’t this get worse with higher data flows? • We have terrible lip synch problems with digital now. Won’t that be even more objectionable with HD pictures?

27. “Immersion” is the keyword • Immersion means entering more fully into a mediated experience. • A viewer can lean back and stay immersed – if the screen is big enough • Qualitatively, it’s like the difference between 2D and 3D.

28. Home Cinema 1

29. Home Cinema 2

30. Home Cinema 3

31. Les Miserables

32. What are the markets • Broadcast now (USA, Japan, Australia, Latin America) • Broadcast soon (France, Italy, Germany, UK) • Alternative content for Digital cinema/Electronic Theatre? • HD DVDs for home cinema.

33. The Cost factor • Manufacturers are delivering very cheap camcorders using compression, but full bandwidth HD still expensive • Editing, image processing, graphics cost more – investment in new cards, software, HD monitors. • Design elements may require higher finish. • Buying rights to library images – paintings etc – may well cost more.

34. The Compatibility Issue • The Producer will inevitably also have to deliver – and pay for - standard definition versions. • The production team are faced with difficult format choices – use the widescreen for best effect or shoot and protect for 4:3? • Making a good 16:9 version into a good 4:3 version takes production times (decisions) and machine time (format conversion/pan and scan) and stock.

35. Audio • Better pictures need better sound. • Lip synch needs to be absolute • Apart from acquisition there are dangers at edit conform, relays through the TX system, and at the home receiver. • For projection there may be problems of wandering synch because of variable anti-key-stoning processing.

36. What producers need to think about • Why shoot in HD? Does it add value? • What system – 1080i/25, 720p, 1080p? • Have you got good technical advice across the whole chain? • Can you check picture quality on location? There can be unpleasant surprises if you don’t have a proper widescreen HD monitor.

37. What producers need to think about • Are sets wigs and costume up to HD quality ? • Are your artistes up to it? • Will you be using lights? HD pictures only look good with the proper shaping What kind? • Are you sure about your editing and special FX? Not all systems work quite as well as manufacturers claim.

38. What producers need to think about • The creative implications of better picture, widescreen and big screen for framing and transitions. • Think about audio and be vigilant about lip-synch through post. • Think about compatibility with 4:3 - decide priorities. • Think about titles – size, positioning and movement – will the concept work in 4:3

39. Recent Experience • Dion Beebe shot some of Michael Mann’s Collateral on HD. Choice was practical rather than aesthetic.

40. SWOT

41. Strength • Better Pictures • Pictures will also work on big screens as “Alternative Content” for e-cinema. • Higher quality for archive/library use in future.

42. Weakness • Systems may not deliver full quality • Expense – need for upgrading acquisition, PP and display. • Displays need to be big to see quality • Extra costs – and concerns – for producers and consumers. • Need to convince consumers. • System alone will not succeed – it needs appropriate programming.

43. Opportunity • Provides a high quality home cinema type of experience that attracts audiences.

44. Threat • If full quality not delivered by broadcasters consumers will feel cheated. • Producers invest in HD production but cannot recoup their extra costs. • New approaches to image making.

45. Immersivity 3 - Interactivity • Broadcasters like interactivity. The red button is appears more and more frequently. • Evidence shows people like to vote. • Olympics - 10 million viewers accessed the service. • Wimbledon - 4.2 million Sky viewers accessed the service. • Test the Nation – I million • Big Brother – 700,00- viewers paid 25p for enhanced NTL/Telewest service.

46. Interactive menus clearer on HD

47. But…. • Consumer experience in all systems is fairly weak because of TV’s “asymmetry (only phone lines back). Cannot compete with the speed of Internet or computer games. • The middleware platforms – Open, Liberate, Freeview are incompatible. Producers have to code separately for each system. • Some attempts to bridge the gap – EnSequence, Chello, BBC has written its own system.

48. Immersivity 4 – Content Everywhere • Producers increasingly need to exploit their work, not only internationally, but across all media. • Digital Cinema, Broadband Internet, Mobile devices (phones, PDA’s) • Challenge is to find a way to re-purpose entertainment brands so that users will pay.

49. Digital Cinema • Stability of electronic image offers enhanced viewing. • Instant distribution possible by satellite, terrestrial or cable. • More flexibility for cinema exhibitors. • Easier showing of commercials • Can show much wider range of content – concerts, events, theatre, sports, gaming tournaments. • No hard copies to pirate, and good encryption. • UK Film Council funding conversion of 200 cinemas to digital.

50. The Internet • Broadcasters’ salvation. They can put more public service material on related websites. • BBC’s website seen as a major plank of their remit. • Full symmetry for interactivity. • Can link to the wider facilities of the semantic web. • Keeps a toe in the broadband world.