The current interglacial holocene
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The Current Interglacial (Holocene). AOS 528, 11/29/07. The Holocene. Approximately 11,600 years ago to the present Increasingly modified by human activities Land use causes local climate effects Altered atmospheric composition causes global climate effects

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The Current Interglacial (Holocene)

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The current interglacial holocene

The Current Interglacial (Holocene)

AOS 528, 11/29/07


The holocene

The Holocene

  • Approximately 11,600 years ago to the present

  • Increasingly modified by human activities

    • Land use causes local climate effects

    • Altered atmospheric composition causes global climate effects

  • Records of long and short-term climate change:

    • Alpine glaciers

    • Monsoons

    • El Niño-Southern Oscillation


Holocene climate forcings

Holocene Climate Forcings

  • Orbital Variations

  • Volcanic eruptions

    • Changes in amplitude and occurrence

  • Solar luminosity variations

    • Much study (Particularly at NASA. Why?),

    • Minimal effects

  • Greenhouse gas concentrations

  • Waning Ice Sheets

    • Effects on albedo and atmospheric circulation


Holocene climate forcings1

Holocene Climate Forcings

  • Orbital Variations

  • Volcanic eruptions

    • Changes in amplitude and occurrence

  • Solar luminosity variations

    • Much study (Particularly at NASA. Why?),

    • Minimal effects

  • Greenhouse gas concentrations

  • Waning Ice Sheets

    • Effects on albedo and atmospheric circulation


The holocene and orbital variations

The Holocene and Orbital Variations


N hem summer insolation

N. HEM. SUMMER INSOLATION

Incident Shortwave Radiation over Land, Ocean and Globally

Incident Shortwave Radiation at 10Kyr, 6Kyr, and 0Kyr BP

Predicted SST

Specified SST


Insolation and precip effects

INSOLATION and PRECIP EFFECTS

Summer Radiation

(W/m2)

NW African Climate

Simulated

Precipitation Change in

centimeters

www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr/asr03/ccr/index.html

deMenocal et al., Science, 2000


Insolation and precip effects1

INSOLATION and PRECIP EFFECTS

Effect of Insolation on the African Monsoon

Source: PMIP (Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project) and the

Global Lake Status Database, (GLSDB: Kohfeld and Harrison, 2000, Harrison et al., 2003)


Holocene greenhouse gases

Holocene Greenhouse Gases

  • Known from ice cores

  • Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

    • 10-8kyr: decreases 7ppm

    • 8kyr-preindustrial: increases 20ppm

  • Methane (CH4)

    • 10-6kyr: decreases 150ppb

    • 6-preindustrial: increases 150ppb

  • Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

    • 10-8kyr: decreases 10ppb

    • 8-2kyr: increases 10ppb


Holocene greenhouse gas forcing

CO2

CH4

N2O

Holocene Greenhouse Gas Forcing

T

Total combined Holocene greenhouse gas forcing was about 0.5 W/m2

  • CO2 = 0.4 W/m2

  • N2O+CH4 = 0.1 W/m2

Flueckiger et al., 2002


The anthropocene

The Anthropocene?

Why were GHG concentrations varying before the industrial age?

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/12/early-anthropocene-hyppothesis/

Ruddiman, 2005


Term paper instructions

Term Paper Instructions

3.Required sections:

  • Introduction

  • Model Description

  • Experiment Description

  • Results

  • Discussion

    (interpret and contextualize results)

  • Conclusions

    (and Future Work)


Term paper instructions1

Term Paper Instructions

  • Due dates: December 8th and 13th (midnight)

  • Term Paper Instructions

    • 10-15 pages, single-spaced including:

      • Title page

      • Figures

      • References (at least 5)

    • 1 inch margins, 12pt font

    • All figures must have captions

    • Each person must contribute some material


Term papers due dec 13th

Term Papers Due Dec. 13th

Presentations:Thursday, December 6th (during class)

Group 2: Phillips, Schiferl

The Effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol

Group 7: Schmidt, Bruskewitz, Serwe:

Title?

Group 8: Schuh, Moore, Olson

Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture Production in the Midwest

Group 9: Kirchner, Shewczyk, Welhouse

Global Climate Change's Effects On Agriculture

Group 10: Franklin, Obbink, Orland

The Effects of Orbital Forcings During Mid-Pliocene Global Warming


Term papers due dec 8th

Term Papers Due Dec. 8th

Presentations:Thursday, December 20th (10:05am)

Group 1: Lubcaynka, Moua, Propheter

US and China's Affect on Global Warming

Group 3: Caruso, Maloney, Schmelzer

Title?

Group 4: Schreiber, Brown

"Peak Oil" Predictions and Their Effect on Future Warming

Group 5: Asuma, Caves, Koch

A Comparison of Global Climate Effects Due to Varying Rates of Methane Introduction

Group 6: Marsicek, Ronnei, McCarville

Using Drought Index to Analyze Potential Impacts on the Tropical Rainforest By Increasing CO2 and Solar Luminosity

Group 11: Hladish, Kampa

A Potential Glacial Maximum in the Future?


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