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The 2014 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol

The 2014 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol. An update 25 th Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol Bangkok, Thailand. Coordinator / Editor Chris Ennis (USA). SAP Co-chairs Ayit é-Lô Ajavon (Togo) Paul Newman (USA) John Pyle (UK)

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The 2014 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol

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  1. The 2014 WMO/UNEP Ozone AssessmentScientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol An update 25th Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol Bangkok, Thailand Coordinator/ Editor Chris Ennis (USA) SAP Co-chairs Ayité-LôAjavon (Togo) Paul Newman (USA) John Pyle (UK) A.R. Ravishankara (USA) Scientific Steering Committee David Karoly (Australia) Malcolm Ko (USA) Theodore Shepherd (UK) Susan Solomon (USA) Goal: Make the assessment more useful to and usable by the Parties. Make the printed copy short, easy to read, and provide much needed information for policy decisions. Side benefits: Reduce printing and shipping costs A layered publication- easily accessible at various levels Taking advantage of the technological (internet) advances 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

  2. Structure of the 2014 Scientific Assessment Assessment for the Decision- Making Community Assessment Foundation from the Scientific Community Decision-Relevant Information (Web and print) (Web-only) “ODSs” Science Update 1 2 3 4 5 Synthesis of the Chapters’ policy-relevant information “Global Ozone: Past and Future” Science Update ~30-40 pages Policy-relevant information prepared for this assessment (Scenarios chapter, perhaps modified)shortened) Policy-Relevant Highlights from the Chapter “Polar Ozone: Past and Future” Science Update What We Know from Previous Assessments 2014 Chapter Scientific Summary (bullets) • Appendices: • Chapter Summaries • Other Supporting Detail • (e.g., tables of ODPs, lifetimes, scenario details) “Strat O3 Changes & Climate” Science Update ~25 pages “Scenarios/Options for Policymakers” Science Update Forms the foundation for scientists and program managers For the Parties to the Protocol National (Ozone) Units and managers 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

  3. 2014 Contents: The Birds-Eye View • Key ongoing issues • Levels of ODS and trends • Levels of ozone and its trends • Our understanding of the atmospheric science • What is new in science • The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery • The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes • Key requests from the Parties to the Protocol 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

  4. Chapters, Lead Authors (LA), and Chapter Editors (CE) Chapter 1: Update on Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) and Other Gases of Interest to the Montreal Protocol LAs: Lucy Carpenter (Univ. of York, UK); Stefan Reimann (Empa, Switzerland) CE:Andreas Engel, Germany; Steve Montzka, USA Chapter 2: Update on Global Ozone: Past, Present, and Future LAs: Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC, USA); Wolfgang Steinbrecht (DeutscherWetterdienst, Germany) CE:VitaliFioletov (Canada); Ulrike Langematz (Germany) Chapter 3: Update on Polar Ozone: Past, Present, and Future LAs: Martin Dameris (DLR, InstitutfürPhysik der Atmosphäre, Germany) Sophie Godin-Beekmann (LATMOS/CNRS/UVSQ/UPMC, France) CE:Judith Perlwitz (USA); SlimaneBekki (France) Chapter 4: Stratospheric Ozone Changes and Climate LAs: Julie Arblaster (Aust. Bureau of Met., Australia); Nathan Gillett (Env. Canada, Canada) CE:Lesley Gray (UK); David Thompson (USA) Chapter 5: Scenarios, Information, and Options for Policymakers LAs: Neil Harris (Cambridge Univ., UK); Don Wuebbles (Univ. of Illinois, USA) CE:Mack McFarland (USA); GuusVelders (Netherlands) 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

  5. The Parties’ Request (Decision XXIII/13) “Terms of Reference” for the 2014 SAP Report • Assessment of the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution, including in respect of atmospheric changes from, for example, sudden stratospheric warming or accelerated Brewer-Dobson circulation; • Evaluation of the Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic winter/spring ozone depletion and the predicted changes in these phenomena, with a particular focus on temperatures in the polar stratosphere; • Evaluation of trends in the concentration in the atmosphere of ozone-depleting substances and their consistency with reported production and consumption of those substances and the likely implications for the state of the ozone layer and the atmosphere; • Assessment of the interaction between the ozone layer and the atmosphere; including: • i. The effect of polar ozone depletion on tropospheric climate; • ii. The effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling; • Description and interpretation of observed ozone changes and ultraviolet radiation, along with future projections and scenarios for those variables, taking into account among other things the expected impacts to the atmosphere; • Assessment of the effects of ozone-depleting substances and other ozone-relevant substances, if any, with stratospheric influences, and their degradation products, the identification of such substances, their ozone-depletion potential and other properties; • Identification of any other threats to the ozone layer… 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

  6. Timeline • Discussion Paper circulated for comments by scientific community (Feb) • Lead Authors and Chapter Editors established (early Apr) • Chapter author teams assembled, early preparation steps begin (early May) • Draft of Chapter outlines (late May) 2013 • 1st meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (June) • Individual Chapter team meetings (convened by Lead Authors (July-Sep) • Chapter summary bullets and outlines submitted for review (October 1, 2013) Meeting of the Parties • 1st drafts of Chapters completed (30 October, 2013) • Mail Review of Chapter 1st drafts begins (1 Nov) • Chapter 1st drafts reviews due (15 Dec) • Chapter editor summaries sent to Lead Authors (early Jan) • 2nd draft of Chapters completed (early Mar) 2014 • 2nd meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (April 8-10) Boulder • Drafting of Assessment for Decision-Makers begins • Final drafts of Chapters completed (all cited papers in press) mid-May • Draft Assessment for Decision-Makers distributed to Panel Reviewers (early June) • Panel Rev. Meeting [discuss and finalize Assessment for Decision-Makers] (June 23-27) Les Diablerets 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

  7. Acknowledgment • Many thanks to Mr. Marco Gonzalez for his guidance and support • Thank you for your attention Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok

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