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Impact of Economic Downturn on Competitive ERCOT IDR Load

Impact of Economic Downturn on Competitive ERCOT IDR Load. Methodology. Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement BUSIDRRQ for competitive load only Excluded initial settlements January 1, 2007 – December 31, 2008 Summed IDR cuts by Weather Zone

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Impact of Economic Downturn on Competitive ERCOT IDR Load

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  1. Impact of Economic Downturnon Competitive ERCOT IDR Load

  2. Methodology • Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement • BUSIDRRQ for competitive load only • Excluded initial settlements • January 1, 2007 – December 31, 2008 • Summed IDR cuts by Weather Zone • Estimated models using 1-1-07 to 9-30-08, but excluding: • Hurricane Edouard • Coast – 8-3-08 to 8-9-08 • All other Weather Zones – 8-4-08 to 8-6-08 • Hurricane Ike • Coast – 9-9-08 to 9-30-08 • Generated model estimates at the Weather Zone level up through 12-31-08 • Compared actuals to estimates at the Weather Zone and Ercot IDR total load level for 10-15-08 to 12-31-08 • No economic impact observed for IDR load prior to 10-15-2008

  3. Model Statistics for Daily Energy Estimates • IDR Total Load Level: • R-Square - .944 • MAPE – 2.17% • MAD – 5.25 GWH • IDR Coast Model: • R-Square - .855 • MAPE – 2.35% • MAD – 2.58 GWH • IDR NCent Model: • R-Square - .950 • MAPE – 1.85% • MAD – 1.44 GWH • Other Weather Zone composite Model: • R-Square - .391 • MAPE – 6.08 % • MAD – 3.70 GWH

  4. Model Actual GWH Diff ERCOT Total IDR Daily Load January 1 – December 31, 2008 GWH • Significant Load Reduction in September due to Hurricane Ike • Some residual hurricane reduction in October followed by economic downturn impact through year-end

  5. Model Actual GWH Diff ERCOT Coast IDR Daily Load January 1 – December 31, 2008 GWH • Significant Load Reduction in September due to Hurricane Ike • Some residual hurricane reduction in October followed by significant economic downturn impact through year-end

  6. Model Actual GWH Diff ERCOT NCent IDR Daily Load January 1 – December 31, 2008 GWH • Modest economic downturn impact mid October through year-end

  7. Model Actual GWH Diff ERCOT Other WZones IDR Daily Load January 1 – December 31, 2008 GWH • No apparent economic downturn impact through year-end

  8. ERCOT IDR Load Differences Actual Load – Model Estimate • The major economic downturn impact has occurred in the Coast Weather Zone and appears to be trending to a more severe level • Coast IDR load reduction accounts for 79% of the ERCOT total reduction • NCent IDR load reduction is consistently negative but does not appear to be trending down • Other Weather Zone IDR load reduction is more difficult to assess because of modeling limitations but may be reacting more slowly to the economic downturn

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