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What Not to Wear (As Regulatory Policy)

What Not to Wear (As Regulatory Policy). Current Issues 2011 The Santa Fe Conference New Mexico State University Center for Public Utilities Remarks of Ron Binz, Chairman Colorado Public Utilities Commission March 15, 2011. Outline of this presentation.

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What Not to Wear (As Regulatory Policy)

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  1. What Not to Wear (As Regulatory Policy) Current Issues 2011 The Santa Fe Conference New Mexico State University Center for Public Utilities Remarks of Ron Binz, Chairman Colorado Public Utilities Commission March 15, 2011

  2. Outline of this presentation • CapEx for US Electric Supply 2010-2030 • With and without carbon regulation • How big is the challenge? • EPRI Prism/Merge • Brattle Group Analysis • International Energy Agency Analysis • What are the regional differences? • What changes are needed in our regulatory and policy tools?

  3. EPRI Prism/Merge

  4. Efficiency Biomass Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas Retrofit CCS New CCS Non-CCS Coal

  5. Efficiency Biomass Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas Retrofit CCS New CCS Non-CCS Coal

  6. What would this 2030 portfolio cost?

  7. Brattle Group CapEx Estimate

  8. EIA Regional Groupings

  9. Brattle Group CapEx Estimate

  10. Brattle Group CapEx Estimate

  11. Implications of Brattle Group Estimates Between 2010 and 2030 • Net assets of electric utilities will increase to approximately $2.16trillion from today’s $1.10 trillion, an increase of 93%. • Approximate new capacity additions for selected states: • Texas: 23,400 MW • Florida: 12,200 MW • Illinois: 11,000 MW • Ohio: 8,500 MW • Pennsylvania: 6,300 MW • New York: 5,400 MW • Colorado: 2,500 MW

  12. International Energy Agency View $0.57 T $1.79 T $2.36 Trillion

  13. Implications for State Regulation • Strong upward pressure on rates • Strong pressure on utility balance sheets, earnings • Highest capital requirements ever • Frequent rate cases • Regulatory system will be severely stressed • Heightened need for additional EE and DR • Traditional markets • Heightened need for integrated planning • New look at prudence reviews • New regulatory techniques • For organized markets • Increased pressure to solve impediments to new transmission and generation

  14. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

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