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NDE’s Role in a Flat Earth Society

Keynote Address. NDE’s Role in a Flat Earth Society. Don E. Bray, Ph. D., P. E. Don E. Bray, Inc. P. O. Box 10315 College Station, Texas USA 77842-0315 V/F 979-693-9301 Cell 979-492-9534 Email debray1@brayengr.com http://brayengr.com.

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NDE’s Role in a Flat Earth Society

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  1. Keynote Address NDE’s Role in a Flat Earth Society Don E. Bray, Ph. D., P. E. Don E. Bray, Inc. P. O. Box 10315 College Station, Texas USA 77842-0315 V/F 979-693-9301 Cell 979-492-9534 Email debray1@brayengr.com http://brayengr.com ICPIIT X Conference, Houston, Texas 20-23 June 2007 ASNT

  2. Driving Forces For NDE • There is Bad Stuff out there! • No one is going to tell us where it is.

  3. Opportunities in NDE

  4. Worldwide NDE Market 1990’s Source: Wells, C. D., Insight, 36. 1994

  5. Drivers for NDE Growth • Population growth - energy, aircraft, roads, housing, medical, construction products. • Extended life for equipment. • Demand for less waste and cleaner environment. • Remanufactured industrial components. • Better quality control in manufactured goods.

  6. Worldwide Factors Driving NDE Growth Population projections in billions of people Source World Almanac 2007

  7. Major Energy Consumers 2004 Quadrillion Btu Source World Almanac 2007

  8. The opportunity for us is ….. in the fact that all of this growth places increased demands on all of the sectors where NDE is important.

  9. Some Local History 1960’s Houston section of ASNT met at the Carousel Motor Inn, across from Gulfgate Mall. Members mostly from petrochemical, pipeline, utility, railroad industries. Common equipment names included, Sperry, Automation Industries, Magnaflux, Krautkramer, Branson, Eastman Kodak, Agfa, DuPont

  10. Demographics of ASNT Source: Materials Evaluation

  11. What Changed from 1966 to 2007

  12. Trends to 2007 • Increasing competition from US organizations. • Increasing number of non-US organizations • Increasing number of non-US manufacturers of NDE equipment.

  13. hence, the World is Flattening

  14. Definition of New Flat Earth • Instantaneous voice and data communications • Anywhere on Earth • Cheap • Reliable

  15. The real game changing events! • Engineering colleges in India and China and Singapore are turning out large numbers of well educated engineers. • Colleges and universities in these countries are involved in research that is keeping their best graduates at home. • The US no longer has the supply of top graduate students from India and China.

  16. Implications ……. • NDE planning and execution in the world market may be performed by anyone who conforms to the customer’s criteria. • Applicable Codes and Standards will be whatever the customer specifies. • Personnel qualifications will be what is dictated by the chosen Code & Standard.

  17. more implications • NDE Equipment may be supplied from anywhere on the globe. • Inspection equipment may be designed by anyone on the globe. • Inspection crews may be from anywhere on the globe.

  18. Factors Governing New World NDE • The laws of physics apply, equally everywhere. • Social and business practices may vary locally. • Economic wealth, natural and resources may vary locally. • Education may vary locally • Codes and Standards, Personnel Qualifications and Technical Specs may vary locally.

  19. How do we as individuals and as companies cope with this new order?

  20. Consider the Following

  21. And….

  22. Further….

  23. Project to the future……. • Use 1960’s and 2007 as reference points. • Where will you as an individual and your company be in 45 years?

  24. Menu of applicable topics …. • Data analysis techniques • Design of automated inspection systems. • Material behavior prediction, i.e. fatigue and fracture. • Inspectability of the material and the design. • Revisions in Codes and Standards and Personnel Qualifications

  25. Predicted Definition of Future NDE jobs • More robotics • More remote data analysis • Increased importance of engineering in NDE (Level III). • Decreased value of Level I and Level II inspectors

  26. For an exciting future in NDE • Increase your education level, continually. • ___ • ___ • ___

  27. Another view…... “The world is more like it is today than it ever has been before.” An anonymous Presidential candidate in the 70’s expressing his uncertainty about the future.

  28. Conclusions America has been successful in the past because we have encouraged dreams which led to innovation. • In the future we must maintain that ability to dream while competing with other countries that dare to do the same.

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