Transport sector energy demand model for south africa
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Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa. Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012. Introduction. Work Commissioned by SANEDI SA Transport sector 28 % of TFC. The

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Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa

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Transport sector energy demand model for south africa

Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa

Adrian StoneEnergy Research Centre 31st July 2012


Introduction

Introduction

  • Work Commissioned by SANEDI

  • SA Transport sector 28% of TFC. The

  • Bulk (97%) is liquid fuels. This is 84% of national liquid fuel demand. (DoE, 2009)(IEA, 2011).

  • Medium to long term (2050) future trends in demand for passenger transportation - different scenarios

  • Medium to long term future trends in demand for freight transportation - different scenarios.

  • Resulting demand for energy in scenarios.

  • CO2 emissions associated with each of the scenarios?

Transport Sector Model


Systems dynamics considerations

Systems Dynamics Considerations

Source: Armenia, Baldoni, Falsini, & Taibi, 2010

Transport Sector Model


Multi model solution

Multi-Model Solution

Base Year Time Budget Model

Calibrated Vehicle Parc Model

Baseline P-km, T-km/

Mode-share

3 Income Groups:

  • Average km/h

  • Public/private split

WIDER CGE Model

Projected Income of Household Deciles 2005 - 2030

Energy Demand

Future Year Time Budget Model

Projected P-km

Mode-share

ANSWER TIMES Model

Future FE Assump.

Transport Sector Model


Baseline the vehicle parc model

Baseline – The Vehicle Parc Model

Scrapping

Factor

NAAMSA

Vehicle Sales

Vehicle Parc

Model

Enatis Check

Vehicle

Mileage/Decay

Vehicle km

Occupancy

P-km, T-km/

Mode-share

Fuel

Consumption

Fuel Economy/

Improvement

Natmap/SOL

Check

SAPIA/EB

Check

Transport Sector Model


Mileage decay still a guess

Mileage Decay Still a Guess

Transport Sector Model


Tbm the gospel according to victor schafer

TBM – The Gospel According to Victor & Schafer

Transport Sector Model


Tbm simple principle

TBM – Simple Principle

PKM = Total Passenger.km per year

Fij=Fraction in motion on mode j by income group i.

Sj=Average Speed of mode j

Ti=Travel Time Budget per person per year for income group i

Nij=Number of people in income group i using mode j

Transport Sector Model


Tbm salient assumptions

TBM – Salient Assumptions

Transport Sector Model


Tbm refinements

TBM – Refinements

  • TBM balances Vehicle Parc Model but Average Speeds seem v. low

  • Even after adjusting mileage & occupancy in the VPM

  • Philip G. measured 41 km/h in Jhb in extensive study

  • Maybe giving way slightly on 1.1 hour justified

Transport Sector Model


Freight model balances fuel but poor agreement with the sol

Freight Model – Balances Fuel but Poor Agreement with the SOL

Transport Sector Model


Some results

Some Results

Transport Sector Model


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