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New Perspectives on Climate Change Research in Brazil Carlos Nobre Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE and Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change. 08 December 2008. Contents ….

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08 december 2008

New Perspectives on

Climate Change Research

in Brazil

Carlos Nobre

Center for Earth System Science

National Institute for Space Research – INPE

and

Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change

08 December 2008


Contents

Contents …

  • Introduction: the role of S&T for sustainable development

  • New research programs on climate change in Brazil:

    • FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change

    • Climate Change Research Network – Rede CLIMA

    • National Institute for Climate Change Research

  • Conclusion: the National Climate Change Plan


08 december 2008

Regional Shift in Emissions Share

Kyoto Protocol

62%

57%

53%

49.7%

50.3%

43%

47%

38%

Current

Kyoto

Protocol

Entered

into Force

Percentage of Global Annual Emissions

Kyoto

Protocol

Adopted

  • Top Emitters

  • 1. China

  • USA

  • 4.Russia

  • 3. India

UNFCCC

J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication


08 december 2008

SRES (2000) aver. growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:

A1B: 2.42

A1FI: 2.71

A1T: 1.63

A2: 2.13

B1: 1.79

B2: 1.61

2007

2006

2005

Observed 2000-2007 3.5%

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

(Avgs.)

  • Top Emitters

  • 1. China

  • USA

  • 4.Russia

  • 3. India

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project (2008)


08 december 2008

20%

Inventory of Brazilian Emissions by Sector (CO2-eq)

Energy

Land Use

Change

Agriculture

1% of GDP

30% of GDP

Considering GWP of CH4 = 21


Number of articles by geographical coverage 2002 2007

Contributions of Brazilian research institutions

to the science of climate change

Number of articles by geographical coverage - 2002 - 2007

Selection of published articles with key words “climate change”in based on 20 journals (e.g., Science, Nature, PNAS, J. Climate, Climatic Change etc.), during the last 5 years (2003-2007).

Average Brazilian contributions is 2% (all areas)


Can tropical countries become fully developed in the 21 st century following sustainable pathways

Can Tropical Countries become fully developed in the 21st Century following sustainable pathways?


Pathways for earth sustainability in brazil the role of s t

Pathways for Earth Sustainability in BrazilThe role of S&T

The challenge of our generation is to invent a new development paradigm for the Global Tropics, based on S&T, recognizing that rational use of their abundant renewable natural resources and biodiversity can be the key factor for development.

This new development paradigm must rest upon a robust capacity to observe and model the Earth System.


The time has come for global climate change research in brazil why is it important

The time has come for Global Climate Change Research in Brazil …Why is it important?

  • Over 50% of Brazil’s GDP is dependent on renewable natural resources (agriculture, hydropower, etc.)

  • Large vulnerable populations to extremes of climate and weather (farmers in semi-arid Northeast Brazil and poor urban population)

  • Many other vulnerabilities

  • Unlike other rapidly developing countries, it is quite feasible to reduce emissions


Challenges for brazilian research programs on climate change in the next decade

Challenges for Brazilian Research Programs on Climate Change in the Next Decade

  • Detection and attribution of causes of climate change

    • Understanding of global biogeochemical cycles

    • Natural climate variability versus climate change

    • Global climate system models and scenarios

  • Strategies to mitigate emissions of Greenhouse gases in Brazil

  • Key vulnerabilities to climate change

  • Increase in adaptative capacity


The science of global climate change major challenges

The science of global climate change: major challenges

  • Quantification of systemic risks

  • Reduction of uncertainties of projections and turning them more relevant at the regional scales and for adaptation (e.g., projections of extremes)

  • Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

  • Radically new decarbonization technologies


Brazilian research network on climate change research rede clima

Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”


Brazilian research network on climate change research rede clima1

Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”

  • Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation

  • Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the challenges of global environmental change

  • It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all dimensions of global environmental change

  • Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start implementation

  • It involves initially 10 interconnected themes


08 december 2008

Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points

Biodiversity and Ecossistems

MPEG, Belém

Water Resources

UFPE, Recife

Regional Development

UnB, Brasília

Cities and Industry

Unicamp, Campinas

Renewable Energy

COPPE / UFRJ, RJ

Agriculture

EMBRAPA, Campinas

Human Health

Fiocruz, RJ

Economy of Climate Change

USP, São Paulo

Climate Modeling

INPE

Coastal Zones

FURG, Rio Grande


08 december 2008

New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for

Climate Change Research

...

This new system will be the 6th most powerful in the world in climate change research by mid-2009

FNDCT - US$ 15 M

FAPESP - US$ 7.5M

It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km !


The national institute for climate change research

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research


The national institute for climate change research1

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research

  • Competitive Call for Proposals for National Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 101 INCTs selected

  • The National Institute for Climate Change:

    - 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors

    - 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved

    - US$ 3.5 M (+ US$ 5 M from Rede CLIMA) for 3 years


08 december 2008

GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL


08 december 2008

Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model

Mid-1970s

Mid-1980s

Early 1990s

Late 1990s

Around 2000

Mid 2000s

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Land Surface

Land Surface

Land Surface

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Ocean & Sea-Ice

The Climate System

Sulphate

Sulphate

Sulphate

Aerosol

Aerosol

Aerosol

Non-sulphate

Non-sulphate

Aerosol

Aerosol

Carbon Cycle

Carbon Cycle

Dynamic

Vegetation

Atmospheric

Chemistry


Development of a global climate system model

Development of a Global Climate System Model

  • Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad

    • Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building block

    • Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc.

    • 5 year project with engagement of many modeling groups in Brazil

    • Capacity development in many areas


Brazil s participation in ipcc ar5 global climate model simulations

Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5 global climate model simulations

  • International collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and others likely

  • Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5 ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution, different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation, etc.

  • Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of 2009 through the fist quarter of 2011)

  • Open data policy access for all simulations


Fapesp research program on global climate change

FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change


Fapesp research program on global climate change1

FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change

  • Carefully thought-out research plan (2 years)

  • Long term research Program: 10 years warranted

  • First Call for Proposals launched: US$ 7.5 million

  • Two-pronged Call for Proposals:

    • US$ 6 million on scientific basis, impacts, and mitigation themes

    • US$ 1.5 million to develop the Brazilian Global Climate System Model (4 years)

  • Contribution to the development of a full-fledged Earth System Model

  • Supercomputer facility and support for model use and development


Development of a brazilian global climate system model

Development of a Brazilian Global Climate System Model

  • A single proposal will be selected

  • Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad)

  • Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil

  • Applied to climate change research

  • No “black-box” solution accepted

  • Aims at developing capacity in all components of Global Climate System Model

  • Strongly associated to PhD training

  • Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M


National climate change plan

National Climate Change Plan

  • Federal Government has launched a National Climate Change Plan

  • Climate Change Fund to be established: estimates of US$ 400 million/year for adaptation, mitigation and S&T development

  • Rede CLIMA, INCT for Climate Change and the FAPESP Program (and other research programs being established) will form the pillar for the R&D portion of the National Climate Change Plan


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