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Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail

Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail. Sarah Dochow Andrew May Callie Safley. Purpose. Estimate Value Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources Investigate Factors Permit Ranger Presence Maintenance . Theory. Demand Curve

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Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail

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  1. Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail Sarah Dochow Andrew May Callie Safley

  2. Purpose • Estimate Value • Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources • Investigate Factors • Permit • Ranger Presence • Maintenance

  3. Theory • Demand Curve • Created by putting trips on the horizontal axis and the travel cost on the vertical axis • Consumer surplus • Region below the demand curve and above the average price level

  4. Theory $ ΔCS CS TRIPS

  5. Method • Random Interviews • At or near Tanawha Trail and Raven’s Rock • Hypothetical questions used to establish shifts in the demand curve • Demand curve • Derived from interview responses • Confirmed confidentiality • Made results available if requested

  6. Data • Sample size = 38 people • Average Number of Trips to Tanawha Trail • 3.13 ± 0.67 • Average Number of Trips to Raven’s Rock • 1.907 ± 0.464

  7. Data (cont.) • Average Willingness to Pay for hiking permit • $7.59 • SD = $10.81 • Average Travel Cost (.36*roundtrip distance) • $79.08 • SD = $113.76

  8. Data (cont.) • 63% were male participants • Average Education level was 3.5 years of college • Average age was 34 • 74% were willing to pay for a permit

  9. Statistical Results • We took the natural log of RP-trips and add one to get the values for the horizontal axis: ln(trips+1) • We had travel cost on the vertical axis calculated by: (.36*roundtrip distance) • We had three possible demand shifters but only one was statistically significant at the 92% level: (1-pvalue)= (1-.08)=.92

  10. Demand Model

  11. Demand Model

  12. Consumer Surplus • Consumer Surplus • Semi-log: –x/b; where x = Number of Trips, b = travel cost coefficient • b = -.0015 • Number of trips to Ravens Rock: x = 1.908; CS = 1.908/.0015 = $1272 • Number of trips to Ravens Rock with the quality improvement: Δx = 1.36; ΔCS = 1.36/.0015 = $908

  13. Aggregate CS • Individual ΔCS = $908 • Population of 5 counties = 903,568 • We assume that 5% are hikers (Outdoor Recreation Participation Study) • Aggregate ΔCS = 41,021,987.2

  14. Analysis • Major Factor • People are more concerned with trail maintenance than costs • Bias • People live in these locations due to the fact that they enjoy activities, like hiking • Improvement for further Research • Larger sample size • More diversity among survey participants

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