Climate change and food production: Challenges and opportunities for research

1. ENV-NCP-TOGETHER Brokerage Event Malta 31 August 2012 Climate change and food production: Challenges and opportunities for research Luis Garrote and Ana Iglesias Technical University of Madrid

2. development technology population climate and CO2 changes land productivity water availability trade, prices uncertainty discount rate A view of the problem from the academic side

3. Research questions about the future Knowledge needed Support to policy Global projections of crop productivity and water availability (World, EU) Models, Impacts, forecasting How can food production deal with an uncertain future? Adaptation and policy How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks? Assessment and strategy planning process

4. Many projects provide policy support Research questions about the future Knowledge needed Support to policy Models, Impacts, forecasting How can food production deal with an uncertain future? WASSERMed Adaptation and policy How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks? enviroGRIDS 4 4 HIGHNOON

5. 1 key issue can climate change science map the future agriculture? 2 assertions Scenario analysis Understanding uncertainty is useful for facing agricultural challenges Adaptive capacity Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change

6. ClimateCrop model Output: Database of simulated crop responses to climate, environment, and adaptive management Crop models (DSSAT) 1 2 Agro-climatic regions Agricultural production functions Output: Land productivity and water demand estimated functions 3 Output: Agro-climatic regions that include climate, farm types, irrigated areas, adaptive capacity Output: Land productivity and water demand estimates responding to climate and farm adaptive management Climate change analysis 4 Output: Land productivity and water demand estimates responding to climate and policy (environmental and energy) Climate change policy analysis 5

8. E1(1 to 14) E1 Avg A1B(1 to 12) A1B Avg RCP8

9. Irrigation water demand change (% of baseline) to adapt food production to climate change A1B_av E1_av 0 2 10 20 30 80

10. WAAPA model natural water resources regulation infrastructure non-conventional resources Policy water availability B, D Policy nature non-nature uses B essential productive Policy A: Demand manag B: Supply manag: regulation C: Supply manag: additional resources (i.e., water re-use) D: Demand manag: efficiency manag, communication and education A Policy water recycling A, C, D

11. Response to climate change in Water Availability Change in Mean Annual Runoff (A2-CTL)/CTL Change in Water Availability for Irrigation (A2-CTL)/CTL

12. Demand-Reliability curve under Climate Change Adour - Garonne Po Alpi Orientali Loire Rhone Cent Macedonia W Aegean E Maced Duero-Douro Appen Settentrionale E Aegean Thrace Tajo-Tejo West Macedonia Ebro Appen Meridionale Guadiana Thessaly Appen Centrale Attica-Pelopone. Júcar Guadalquivir

13. Effect of Public Policies POLICY COMPARATIVE EFFECT GEOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE Improved Water Resources System Management Stronger Environmental Protection Improved Urban Water Use Efficiency

14. Very high (AC = 1) no risk high Adaptive capacity medium low very high None (AC = 0) Very positive (more than +30%) Very negative (more than -30%) Impacts

15. potential risk (a synthesis) low medium high or very high

16. thank you luis.garrote@upm.es ana.iglesias@upm.es Presentation made at the: ENV-NCP-TOGETHER Brokerage Event Malta 31 August 2012